Although so-called luxury goods have a considerably different set of rules, it makes sense that if Bentley and Aston Martin are experiencing a decline in business, so then would Châteaux Lafite, Latour, et al. I am fond of Ms Robinson and certainly respect her wine acumen but hardly think that her article, “Wine’s Age of Uncertainty” is of much concern when looking at the scope of what is happening. And even though I’m a guy whose glass is always half full, I have to hope that we don’t end up needing wine for the purpose of getting enough daily caloric intake to survive, as has happened in Europe after two world wars.

The facts are clear to me: virtually every Château in Bordeaux has benefited from fantastic growth, escalating prices and consumer demand over the course of decades (some over centuries). No one in his or her right mind would believe that that kind of growth and price increase could be indefinitely sustainable. So hopefully there are some erudite business people behind the scenes that recognized this fact long ago and stashed away enough cash to ride out this tsunami. Those that did not will find themselves on the auction block and be bought up at fire-sale prices. This is all a perfect form of market correction, which we started seeing at auction last autumn.

As for the UK loosing its thirst for Bordeaux, I think it is highly unlikely, and by this point in England’s evolution, it is in the DNA of British wine drinkers. I have no doubt that cuts will be made, whether in the form of less consumption or trading down, but I expect England will always have an intimate affair with Bordeaux, as it should be. The Châteaux will have to lower their cost of entry, to be sure, but that would have to happen anyhow; it will probably be years, maybe decades before we experience a vintage as excellent (and perhaps as over-hyped) as 2005 and wine consumers are just not willing to support those ‘05 price points. People that bought 2005 Bordeaux futures are taking a bath unless they are willing to hang on to their purchases for the next 15 to 20 years.

Worldwide, wealth shifts around. As England was once formidable, then much later the US, I have seen Japan, the Middle East and now China (Russia is faltering quickly at this moment) gather incredible market share and momentum, only to give it up to someone else. Even if Hong Kong is the saving grace for the fine wine market today, it too cannot be sustainable, especially given the fact that they are completely relying on other nations economies.

In the end, I think if push comes to shove, I’ll have a lot of incredible wines to open and enjoy. But I’m not too worried about the great estates going away – after all, there a lot more people in the world today that can afford a bottle of Lafite or Latour than a Bentley or Aston Martin.

David Boyer classof1855.com