“Wine By Numbers” and the Wine Market Data Trilemma

Readers send me email every week looking for wine economics data because they frequently get frustrated trying to find current information about wine consumption, production, prices and trade. Lots of data are collected, but it isn’t always easy to sort through and it is often available only at a cost (frequently a very high cost).

Sometimes it seems like there is a wine economics data trilemma (I talk about trilemmas in my new book Money, Taste, and Wine: It’s Complicated).  Researchers want the three Cs: data that is current, complete and cheap (free is even better), but it is hard to get all three.

Current and complete will cost you. Current and cheap is sometimes available, but it might not be complete. Complete and cheap, yes, but maybe a bit dated. You can probably think of examples of all three “trilemma” trade-offs.

There may not be a solution to this trilemma, but I am always looking for resources that can help fill in the gaps and I think I have found one in “Wine by Numbers,” which is provided by Il Corriere Vinicola and the Unione Italiana Vini, an association of Italian wine producers whose 500 members account for 70% of the nation’s wine.  The website explains its purpose this way

The first web magazine dedicated to the international wine trade. Data and figures of the main exporter and importer countries at a glance: Italy, France, Spain, Argentina, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Russia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Brazil.

The data are exposed in tables and figures with details on packaged wines, bulk and sparkling, showed in volume, value and average price.

Free monthly and annual pdf publications are provided by “Wine by Numbers” and, while they don’t eliminate the trilemma issue, they are great resources for anyone wishing to know more about world wine markets.

The Great Convergence? Changing Patterns of Global Alcohol Consumption

The Economist magazine’s current issue includes a brief  article on “Booze Around the World: The Changing Demography of Drinks,” which features  this interesting info-graphic.

It is interesting to see that alcohol consumption per person (third graph) is experiencing a type of convergence in the main markets that some globalization theorists have predicted more generally due to falling income disparities among leading nations and international cultural exchanges that take place via media, immigration and tourism.

Although the graphs are about alcohol in general, this convergent pattern also true for wine, with rising consumption in the new world and falling use in the old world (including Argentina, which is an old world wine country located here in the new world).

The Economist graphs and related story raise a lot of questions. For me the most interesting thing is that, while overall alcohol consumption shows surprising stability (the first graph) the who, what when, where, how and why of consumption displays surprising change (the third graph illustrates the dramatic shift in who and where, for example).

The more things stay the same the more they change? Perhaps! Can’t wait to see what new patterns develop in the next ten years.

Book Review: Jurafsky on The Language of Food (with implications for wine)

Dan Jurafsky, The Language of Food: A Linguist Reads the Menu. W.W. Norton & Company, 2014.

Dan Jurafsky is a Stanford University computational linguist who is fascinated by the way we talk about food. He’s written this provocative book that tells a series of stories that mainly trace the way that the language of food changes over time and how this is related to global cultural and economic exchange.

Turkey, turkey, sushi and ketchup

One story, for example, explain how the turkey, which is native to Southern Mexico, came to be named for the country of Turkey in England and here in the U.S. while acquiring names associated with India in France and elsewhere.

Another chapter traces the origin of ketchup (or sometimes catsup) back to China and then around the world to the familiar red Heinz bottle buried in the back of your refrigerator.  Great stuff if you are interested in food, globalization, history or language.

Unsurprisingly, I was hoping to read about wine in this book and I did both directly (the origins of the social custom of the  “toast” in spiced toasted bread that was dipped in wine to improve its flavor) and indirectly (vinegar, wine’s close relative, as the unlikely global connection between sushi, the food of Japan, English fish and chips, and a host of other delicacies).

Menu Language and Economics

The most thought-provoking ideas about wine actually came from the chapter of the language of restaurant menus. Jurafsky and his colleagues were able to amass a considerable database of restaurant menus for digital analysis. The data is both broad (there are hundreds of thousands of menus on the web) and deep (the New York Public Library has a historical collection of 10,000 menus dating back to 1843). So it is possible to analyze both how the language of the menu has changed over time and how if has evolved differently for different types of restaurants.

The menus don’t just describe food, they also list prices, which makes them interesting to an economist. What types of words are most associated with higher and lower menu prices? The researchers adopted the necessary control procedures (so that they were comparing apples with apples) and here’s what they found.

Language varied by the type of restaurant. Inexpensive restaurants tended to talk about the choice they provide their customers, which I suppose makes sense. Diners understand that inexpensive cafes often offer long menus and so standardized products are the norm. Choices (eggs as you like them, for example, or a dozen different flavors of dipping sauces and salad dressings) are a way to diminish the industrial quality of the experience.

More expensive fine dining restaurants don’t stress choice and, in fact, sometimes deny choice by having chef-chosen set tasting menus (sometimes even “blind” set menus where the list of dishes is not revealed when the diner maker her order).  Instead of stressing choice, the menus focus on the particular characteristics of the food, the origins of ingredients, and the nature of the preparation. Language literally “counts” here. There is a positive correlation between average word length in the menu descriptions and the price of the item. Each one letter increase in the average word length is worth about 18 cents!

You Said a Mouthfull!

Longer words and more specific terms are associated with higher menu prices. This is correlation not causation, of course, so it isn’t necessarily true that you and I see longer words or detailed descriptions and pull out our credit cards, but it could be true that these characteristics help us justify a higher price because they seem to signal to us higher quality. If wine drinkers have trouble avoiding the assumption that higher price signals higher quality, it’s not impossible that high-end diners respond to sophisticated word play.

Interesting finding: there seems to be a “spicy” or “exotic” tax. Menu items that include these words typically carry a higher average price than similar products without this designation.

So chicken you order at Wendy’s is about choice (do you prefer grilled or fried?) and at a fine dining restaurant it is about specific qualities and longer words (spicy Palliard of vegetarian-fed Draper Valley Farm chicken with exotic accompaniments), what about casual dining restaurants that occupy a vast middle ground?

Casual dining restaurants like TGIFriday’s, Applebee’s and Ruby Tuesday have a menu language all their own, stressing how the food tastes or is prepared, but in very broad general terms. Chicken is tender. Steak is juicy, Crab is … real (because you might think it could be fake crab). Interestingly, terms of this type are all associated with lower prices! It isn’t that you are thinking that tender chicken is worth less, it’s just that a higher quality place wouldn’t need to tell you that the steak is juicy or the crab is real, but a less expensive restaurant would.

Jurafsky calls these “filler words” and they are the types of things you say when you have to say something but there isn’t anything better or more specific to say. The more filler words on the menu, it seems, the less distinctive the actual food items and the lower the price. Interesting, isn’t it?

The Language of Wine

So what does this have to do with wine? Well, it seems to me that the same sort of research could be done on the language of wine, both how it has changed over the years and also the way that certain types of terms are associated with different categories of wine. I’m going to start paying more attention to wine advertising, wine label text and wine reviewer descriptions.

Some off the cuff observations are inevitable. If box wines are the vinous equivalent of fast food, then it makes sense that they would talk about convenience the same way that inexpensive restaurants talk about choice. No sense dwelling on low cost since that’s obvious. It’s the way that the product can be made to accommodate your desires that matters.

Very detailed descriptions reign at the top of the wine food chain just as they do for restaurant food — and this is perhaps because indicators of place and craftsmanship are now almost universally seen as indicators of quality and authenticity. It’s not just food or wine, it is pretty much everything that consumers look for.

Maybe this is why so many AVAs have been created in the U.S. — having an AVA associated with your wine is important to its credibility even if the consumer doesn’t really know what or where it is (and even if it doesn’t really mean very much in terms of quality or style of wine). Sue and I enjoyed a nice Vioginier recently that got my attention because it came from the Clarksburg AVA. Clarksburg? You don’t see that every day. Interesting! Gotta try it (and it was indeed interesting).

I’ve inserted an image of the back label of that Viognier above so that you can read the text. Pretty upscale messaging, don’t you think? Even the average word length is impressive.

What about the wine equivalent of casual dining — branded wines selling in the $8-$12 range?  A quick look at some labels suggests that the descriptors are just as vague (“juicy,” “delicious”) as on the casual dining menus and they probably fill the same function — fillers to provide a little (very little in some cases) textual weight when more specific terms don’t apply. Sometimes, I have noted, the labels can have very little to do with wine at all — simple but perhaps effective filler.

Robert Louis Stevenson said that wine is bottled poetry, but I think there is even more to it than that! The language of food and the language of wine seem to have something in common. Food for thought for wine marketers and consumers both!

Celebrating Malbec World Day 2015

April 17, 2015 is Malbec World Day — a great opportunity to pull the cork on a bottle of Malbec wine and to appreciate how quickly this grape variety has come to be an important part of the U.S. and global wine scene.

I have a warm spot in my heart for Malbec because it reminds me of all the nice people and great wines Sue and I encountered during our visit to Argentina a few years ago.  So many interesting experiences learning about old vine Malbec from Roberto De La Mota at Mendel winery, about Malbec -Cabernet blends at Catena and that Argentina is much more than Malbec at a special tasting arranged by Andrés Rosberg.

My appreciation of Malbec deepened when I was asked to take part in the award-winning 2011 documentary Boom Varietal: The Rise of Argentine Malbec produced by Kirk Ermish and directed by Sky Pinnick.  The economics of the Malbec story came to play a surprisingly large part in the film and so I had more screen time than I would ever have expected.

Malbec’s story is inevitably associated with Argentina, but it has become a world-wide phenomenon, breathing life into the Malbec industry back home in its native France (where it is often called Côt) and opening doors to wine-growers around the world (perhaps especially here in the Pacific Northwest).

I’ll be toasting the rise of Malbec with a glass of … what else? … Argentinean Malbec on April 17. Please join me. Cheers!

North to Alaska: On the [Wine] Road for the World Affairs Council


North to Alaska? No Ice Wine jokes, please!

I’m on the road this week, going north to Alaska to do programs for the World Affairs Council. I will be in Juneau  to talk about the global Wine Wars on February 11, 2015 at 5:00 pm at the KTOO studios. The talk is free and open to the public. I’d love to see all my Juneau friends there. I gave a talk about Globaloney there a few years ago and had a great time. 

Then it is north once more to Anchorage for a program for the Alaska World Affairs Council  It is a wine dinner event on February 12 with great food, interesting wines and some Extreme Wine stories to go with them.

The wine dinner is a fund-raiser for the World Affairs Council with tickets priced at $100 for AWAC members, $125 for non-members and $150 to sit at the VIP table with me.  I did a similar dinner in Seattle last year and it sold out and raised a lot of money for the World Affairs Council, so I have high hopes for Anchorage. I will also visit a high school in Anchorage to talk with the students about globalization and answer questions about global markets, globaloney, global wine and (wearing my professor hat) college studies.

I am a big fan of the work of local World Affairs Councils and have done several programs in the past for the groups in Seattle, Portland, Tacoma and Juneau. World Affairs Councils make that critical global-local connection, bringing global issues home and fostering international understanding. I’m proud to support their work in Alaska and across the country.


Hope you enjoy the trailer from the 1960 film “North to Alaska.” I think my visit will be exciting, but in a different way from the film. Looking for that video I stumbled upon this. What do you think?

Get Ready for the Wine Industry Financial Symposium

Sue and I have just returned from a week in Northern Italy as guests of the Valpolicella Consorzio (look for a series of industry reports on Valpolicella and Prosecco in the coming weeks) and now we are getting ready to head to Napa, California for the Wine Industry Financial Symposium that will be held there on September 22 and 23.

The theme of the symposium is “Let the Good Times Roll,” which will strike some as a bit off-key since the California headlines this year have been dominated by bad news — first drought and then the recent Napa earthquake. The program (see below) doesn’t sidestep the challenges, but seeks to put them into the context of a rising tide in the U.S. market. It should be an interesting couple of days!

Monday’s program features workshops that focus on specific issues of interest to wine industry professionals including the Hispanic wine market in the U.S., the rise of craft beer, the emerging talent gap in the wine industry, tax issues and vineyard finance.  Lots of interesting topics and great speakers — something for everyone.

The Tuesday morning program accentuates the positive, beginning with David Freed’s industry overview and ending just before lunch with Carolyn Wente and the celebration of 130 years of Wente Vineyards. In between Dr. Robert Smiley will present the results of his annual survey of wine industry CEOs and John Ciatti will report on U.S. and global harvest trends.

I will talk about “Lessons from the Global Wine Wars,” with an overview of important global market trends, focusing on two that I think are particularly relevant for the U.S. industry today: the “premiumization” of the wine market and the surge in “disintermediation” in the wine industry.

Tuesday afternoon features sessions on social media marketing, “next generation” consumers and wine distribution. Looking forward to hearing the speakers and seeing everyone in Napa next week. Here’s the complete program. Cheers!


Wine Industry Financial Symposium

Monday Workshops – September 22, 2014

Session I: 1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. – Choose One

Examine new ways to relate to consumers through the direct to consumer channel. Speaker-moderator Craig Root will present several new tips designed to enhance your operation. Featured speaker Norman Stolzoff, President of Ethnographic Insight, will offer a detailed look at ethnographic research. This important field uses anthropological insights to solve real-world problems. Ethnography helps better serve customers, leading to profitable results.
Craig Root, Visitor Management Resources
Norman Stolzoff, PhD, President, Ethnographic Insight Inc.

John Mackie,
Partner, Carle, Mackie, Power & Ross, LLP, Moderator
Tony Correia, Owner, The Correia Company
Matt Franklin, Principal, Zepponi & Company
Josh Grace, Managing Director, International Wine Associates

What does it mean to the wine industry and what do we do to make wine the beverage of choice?
Steve Rannekleiv, Executive Director, Research, Rabobank International
Natalia Velikova, PhD., Texas Tech University

Ray Johnson, Director of Wine Business Institute, Sonoma State University
Carol O’Hara, Partner, Burr, Pilger & Mayer, Moderator
Tom O’Brien, Director of Human Resources, Trinchero Family Estates
Larry Smith, Senior Vice President, Human Resources, Jackson Family Wines
Dawn Wofford, Managing Partner, Benchmark Consulting

Session II: 3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. – Choose One

David Freed, Chairman, The Silverado Group
William Beyer, Principal, Prudential Agricultural Investments
Hal Forcey
, American AgAppraisal
Perry F. Deluca, Senior Vice President, Wine Industry Team Leader, Wells Fargo Bank

Bill Leigon, President, Jamieson Ranch Vineyards
Mark Crisler, CS, Founder & Chief Everything Officer, Trellis Wine Group
Jesus Ceja, Ceja Winery / Carneros Brewing Company

Phillip Kalsched, Partner, Carle, Mackie, Power, Ross, LLP, Moderator
Dean Parsons, Project Review Manager, Sonoma County Permit & Resource Management Department
Jeff Redding, Principal, Land Use Environmental Planning Service
Beth Painter, Principal, Balance Planning

Federal Income Tax Updates, State Income Tax Updates, Sales Tax Updates and Estate Tax/Valuations
David Pardes, Tax Director, PricewaterhouseCoopers
George Famalett, Tax Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Joan Armenta Roberts, Managing Director, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Eric W. Nath, ASA, Principal, Eric Nath & Associates
Thomas Garigliano, Tax Partner, Burr, Pilger & Mayer

Tuesday General Session – September 23, 2014
7:45 – 8:15 a.m.

8:15 – 8:20 a.m.
Lisa Adams Walter, Director of Programs, Wine Industry Symposium Group

8:20 – 8:30 a.m.
David Freed, Chairman, The Silverado Group

8:30 – 9:15 a.m.
Robert Smiley, PhD, Dean and Professor Emeritus, Director of Wine
Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis

9:15 – 10:00 a.m.
Mike Veseth, Editor, The Wine Economist Blog

10:00 – 10:30 a.m.

10:30 – 11:15 a.m.
John Ciatti, Broker, Ciatti Company LLC

11:15 a.m. – 12:00 noon
Carolyn Wente, CEO, Wente Vineyards

12:00 – 1:15 p.m.

1:15 – 2:15 p.m.
John Gillespie, President, Wine Market Council and CEO, Wine Opinions
Karena Breslin, VP Digital Marketing, Constellation Brands
Alisa Joseph, Vice President, Business Development, The Nielsen Company
Mark Gordon, Digital Marketing Manager, Jackson Family Wines
Mike Osborn, Founder and VP Merchandising, Wine.com

2:15 – 3:00 p.m.
Liz Thach, PhD, MW, Professor of Management and Wine Business, Sonoma State University
Judd Finkelstein, Judd’s Hill Winery
Lisa Broman Augustine, Broman Cellars
Nicole Bacigalupi Dericco, Bacigalupi Vineyards

3:00 – 4:00 p.m.
Jonathan Pey, Principal, TEXTBOOK Napa Valley
Jon Moramarco, Principal, BW 166 LLC
Dan Grunbeck, EVP Corporate Business Development & Strategy, Youngs Market

4:00 – 5:00 p.m.


Wine Snobs, Cheese Bores and the Fake Hooters Conspiracy

Recent columns by two of my favorite writers — Eric Asimov and Simon Kuper — provoke a brief rant about globalization (and its discontents).

Simon Kuper

The Global Cheese Bore Epidemic

Simon Kuper is a global citizen and so, like a fish in water, he sees globalization from an insider’s perspective. Born in the Netherlands, he lives in Paris and writes about global sport and global affairs for the British newspaper, the Financial Times.

His recent FT column on “An everyday taste of happiness” is on the surface an appreciation of good food. Paris has great food, Kuper writes, and he wonders at one point whether he would live in Paris if its food was bad? No, he’d probably stay — he loves Paris — but he had to think about it.

You can find pretty good food just about everywhere these days and globalization is partly responsible.”Globalization tends to improve cooking,” according to Kuper, and I think he is right. Immigration — global movements of people — also entails global movements of their cuisines, enriching the host country food scene. Global tourism means that millions are exposed to foreign foods and food ideas and bring them back home.

Global media plays a role, too. Julia Child and the Galloping Gourmet paved the way for what is now a global media foodie explosion. Top Chef, Master Chef. Iron Chef. Nigella Lawson, Jamie Oliver, Gordon Ramsay, Anthony Bourdain.  Good news, mainly, according to Kuper’s theory. He even admits that as much as he may not appreciate the global brand Taco Bell it is probably better than the Wonder Bread cuisine of the 1950s that it has partly replaced.

But he doesn’t forgive everything — “The ‘food renaissance’ is indeed linked to class and therefore encourages status displays: the fastest-growing demographic category from Britain to China today is ‘cheese bores.'” (!)

Could you take Kuper’s essay the replace “food” with “wine”? Almost. The parts on immigration (expanded to include flying winemakers and harvest interns) and tourism would hold true. Global media has not yet embraced wine to the same extent as food and fashion, however. But the positive general effects (and boorish negative side effects) that Kuper describes would still hold.

Asimov’s Global Glass

Eric Asimov

If Kuper sees globalization as a glass half full, Eric Asimov seems to worry that it might be half empty in his New York Times column “Europeans Stray From the Vine.” He starts with the sad news that wine drinking is in decline in France. It is way down in terms of quantity and he is concerned a bit about the quality as well. The French now drink more rosé than white wine and box wines have risen from 5% of the market to 30% despite being banned in some regions. Sacrebleu!

What are the French drinking instead of wine? Well, just about everything. Craft beer, spirits, everything else. Even when they drink wine, the French don’t limit themselves to the regional selections that might have been their only choice 50 years ago. Now they seek wines from across France and Europe and around the world. The French are becoming more like Americans!

And Americans are becoming more like the French, enjoying not only their own wines but (with Asimov’s encouragement) drinking wines from France and everywhere else. Asimov has written in the past what a joy it is to live in New York City these days with the world of choices (of wine but also food and other cultural produce) that are available there.

Globalization has costs and benefits, he concludes. “The benefit is better wine and more pleasure for all who are interested. The costs? Homogenized cultures and hyper-competition for the historic benchmark wines that put them largely in the hands of the ultra-wealthy.”

The Globalization Paradox

It is worth reading the columns by Kuper and Asimov and looking at how they intersect, agree, and sometimes disagree. I’m struck by the fact that they both find class issues to be of concern when it comes to global food and wine, for example — the curse of rich wine snobs and cheese bores. I am also interested to note the way that they both end up commenting upon an idea that I first saw in a book by Tyler Cowen called Creative Destruction. I call it the Paradox of Globalization.

Cowen’s book is all about the costs and benefits of cultural globalization and it is one of the best globalization books I know. The paradox, which you will recognize in both Kuper and Asimov essays, is that global influences enrich our lives here at home. More diverse food, wine, art, music, fashion — the list goes on and on. But, there’s a dark side, too.

The problem is that this globalization isn’t limited to your home town. Everyone — in New York, Paris, London, Mumbai — everyone wants to enjoy these global experiences. And they get them although maybe not all at once and with the rich having greater access than the poor. You get the picture.

Which creates the problem that when you travel you find that the quaint little villages (and village wines)  that you imagined would give you that authentic foreign experience have been replaced, at least in part, by the same global selection you have at home. In short, home gets better, but travel becomes something of a disappointment. That’s the Paradox of Globalization: As everyone’s home town becomes globalized, enriching our everyday lives, the world seems to become less foreign, less global, and that seems like a big loss.

Hooters in Innsbruck

A couple of my former students sent me a photo from their travels back in 2000 that captured this point precisely. It showed a quaint street in Innsbruck, Austria with one and only one visible “global” sign: a yellow banner that proclaimed the grand opening of a Hooters restaurant. Famous for hot wings and the tight t-shirts its waitresses wear, Hooters in Innsbruck might strike some people as a kind of evil American conspiracy against indigenous culture.

“What’s wrong with globalization!” was written on the back of the photo. Yikes! You can imagine how dismayed they must have been to see this unexpected (and for them unwanted) reminder of home.

[Update: a reader’s comment (see below) reports that Hooters my students saw was not a real one — some Austrians appropriated the name to set up “fake” Hooters that fooled many people.]

I admit I felt a little bit the same when I saw the big TGI Fridays restaurant near the main square in Riga, Lativia. TGI Fridays? Here? Really? But I got over it when I saw all the happy Latvians enjoying the barbecued ribs. Why shouldn’t they?

How deep does the Paradox of Globalization go? My suspicion is that the most obvious instances are surface level phenomena and that real indigenous culture is able to withstand whatever damage that Hooters or Taco Time might do. But that’s not to say that we shouldn’t be cautious.

The globalization paradox is part and parcel of the world we live in today and while it may disappoint us when we see the French losing hold of a certain idea of wine  that we associate with them, I think we can also take pleasure that Americans (and Chinese and many others) are embracing the culture of wine. And we can hope that the younger generation in France will discover their own idea of wine.

A final point to consider is this: food is far ahead of wine in terms of its global diffusion and penetration , don’t  you think? The media embrace of food might be responsible for this but there are other factors — everyone eats but only some of us (the lucky ones) drink wine.

But I think wine will catch up. Looking at the world of food today, I wonder what the world of wine will look like in 50 years?


Thanks to Melissa and Mari for the Innsbruck Hooters discovery.

If you want to read more about this topic, my 2005 book Globaloney is a critique of globalization’s cultural impacts and the arguments we make about them. It was named a best business book of the year by Library Journal. Incredibly, someone seems to be selling a lightly used copy on Amazon for 1-cent (plus shipping). Two Buck Chuck, meet One Cent Mike.


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