The year is almost over so it is natural to start looking ahead to 2026. Here are three questions relevant to the wine industry to keep in mind as you pull corks to celebrate the new year.

Question One: Are We There Yet?

It is no secret that 2025 has been a tough year for the wine business both here in the U.S. and around the world. There are bright spots, of course, but the thousands of acres of wine grapes that went unharvested this year are a clear sign of trouble as is the continuing removal of vines and conversion of vineyards to other uses.

Some wineries had enough wine in inventory to cover sales and made little or no wine in 2025. The conventional wisdom is that the industry is not going to begin recovery until that inventory of unsold wine is drawn down (or ages out and becomes unsaleable).  Will we reach that point in 2026? Or will this be another bitter vintage for growers, especially those without firm contracts?

It is not something we talk about much in the U.S., but it would speed things along a bit if the government were to consider temporary crisis distillation programs or other policies to help reduce the overhang and bring the wine market into balance. Yes, you can go too far with programs like this and encourage “zombie” vineyards and wineries that exist only because of government support. No one wants that. But there is a useful short-term adjustment role for such programs, too, and it would help draw a line under the current situation and allow the industry to move forward.

Question Two: Will They or Won’t They?

The Supreme Court will soon rule on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff regime. Will they declare them a valid exercise of presidential power? Or will they rule that many of the tariffs violate constitutional provisions and must be rescinded?

This question has importance that goes well beyond the wine industry, but wine certainly has a dog in the fight. The full impact of the tariffs will start to be felt in 2026 through higher costs and disrupted supply chains, but some of the biggest impacts are already here, transmitted through the political system, not markets. I’m talking about the loss of our largest wine export market, Canada, in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian products. Tariffs are often a tit-for-tat situation and U.S. wine is suffering from the retaliation effect.

There are many follow-on questions here, of course. If the SCOTUS rules against the tariffs, will the ruling stick? Or will new tariffs appear to replace the old ones to keep the legal limbo going? Will the tariff tax revenues have to be repaid? If so, where will that money come from? The list goes on, but it starts with the Supreme Court’s decision.  Stay tuned.

Question Three: What Next?

The U.S. economy is something of a puzzle as we bid 2025 adieu. Is growth booming, as the most recent GDP figures seem to suggest? Or is it slowing down and maybe struggling as jobs data indicate? Is inflation pretty much under control? If so, why is “affordability” the year’s hottest word (and not in a good way)?

There are many different ways to answer these questions and economics nerds like me add one more to the list: who will lead the Federal Reserve in 2026 and how will they react to economic news as the year unfolds? The public focus will be on interest rates. Up or down? But the bigger question is how we will navigate the traps and trade-offs of a complex, highly indebted, rapidly evolving economy.

I think this is a wine economics question because I believe that affordability is a significant explanation for the current malaise in wine sales. It’s not the only issue, but it matters. If you think of affordability as roughly the cost of living divided by disposable income, then what the Federal Reserve does is important because it can affect both the numerator and the denominator in many ways. There’s a lot at stake.

What’s next for the wine economy? And what unexpected events (unknown unknowns in the Donald Rumsfeld taxonomy) will appear? 2026 will be many things, but it won’t be boring!