New Jersey’s “Open Source” Cabernet Franc Project

March 24, 2026 By in emerging wine regions, wine, wine markets Leave a comment

Recently, Sue and I had a virtual meet-up with a group of winemakers who want to raise New Jersey’s profile on the U.S. wine industry scene and are working together to make that goal happen. Winemakers tend to be very competitive, so finding a group of them who want to play the team game is noteworthy.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that New Jersey has an active wine industry with 76 wineries in 2026 according to Wine Business Monthly. After all, New Jersey sits comfortably between the well-respected wine regions of New York (450 wineries in 2026) and Virginia (395 wineries) with Pennsylvania (401) and Maryland (105) next door.

The Rodney Dangerfield Problem

New Jersey wine suffers from the Rodney Dangerfield “respect” problem. Grapes have been grown and wine made in New Jersey since colonial times, but the shift towards quality wine is relatively recent. New Jersey’s wineries have big ambitions in terms of quality, but small scale in terms of production as is often the case in states where a farm winery act shapes distribution channels. You might think of them as the Garden State’s hidden germs.

A small group of these wineries formed the Winemakers Co-Op in 2015 aiming to both improve the quality of New Jersey wines and to further its reputation. The member wineries are

According to their website their goals are:

Member wineries aim to produce benchmark dry wines from estate‑grown vinifera (European) varieties that illuminate the differences in soil and climate that exist throughout the Garden State. Through a series of intimate tasting events, industry outreach and communication with the press, these wineries have established themselves as leaders of fine wine production on the East Coast. By spearheading essential industry research and development, Co-Op members are striving to push the boundaries of quality with each new vintage.

Sue and I got involved when we were invited to sample the Winemakers Co-Op “Open Source” wines. The Open Source project is such an original idea that we just had to say yes. Here’s how it works.

Common Base, Individual Vision

Each year since 2016 the Co-Op members have chosen a winegrape variety that they all produced as the object of a project to showcase the group’s work. Each winery contributes half a ton of grapes, which are combined and redistributed, providing the “open source” or common base of the wines that each individual member makes.

The source material is the same, but of course each winery chooses what to do with it and so a variety of types and styles of wines result. Most winemakers are a bit competitive in my experience, so I imagine there is some effort to make wines that are distinctive while advancing the collective goal.

Certainly that is the case with the current release, which is made from Cabernet Franc grapes harvested in 2022. This is the first time for Cabernet Franc in the Open Source program. Chardonnay was the focus of the early years of the program. Bordeaux and Pinot Noir blends appeared in 2023 and 2024.

It is interesting to see how different winemakers have responded to the Open Source Cabernet Franc challenge. William Heritage Winery, for example, made a white wine by gently pressing whole clusters and fermenting and ageing in stainless steel with six months of lees contact. Unexpected!

Vive la Difference?

The other wines are red, as  you would expect, but differ in all sorts of other ways. Variations on a theme and an opportunity for each winery to experiment and explore. But, since we have no previous experience with New Jersey wines, we were sometimes left scratching our heads.  The first wine we tasted, for example, reminded us a little of a Napa Cab Franc we tried recently while the second was closer to a Loire style of wine. Are these wines typical of Cab Franc from this region? Or are they more about exploring differentiation?

I’m not sure we’ve seen a project like this before although it reminds me a bit of the Coro Mendocino project. The Coro Mendocino wineries make distinctive wines from a common blend, but not from the same actual grapes.

Production of the Open Source is obviously limited. Each winery makes only about 23 cases of Open Source wine each year. The wines wear special Open Source labels and this year’s Cab Franc wines sell for $45 per bottle. Sue and I were fortunate to be invited to taste through the Cabernet Franc lineup.

You probably want to know which wine we like best. Too soon to tell, because we haven’t tasted them all yet, and in any case taste is very personal. But the most important thing about the Open Source project is something bigger than the individual wines. The most important thing is that the members of the Winemakers Co-op are working together to take their wines and their reputations to the next level.

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About William Heritage Winery
A fifth-generation family-owned and operated estate vineyard and winery located in Mullica Hill, in the heart of the Outer Coastal Plain American Viticultural Area. Bill & Penni Heritage began cultivating grapes on their 150 acres of apple and peach orchards in 1999, realizing the potential of the Garden State wine industry and starting a new chapter for the next generation.

About Beneduce Vineyards
Founded in 2012 in Pittstown, NJ, Beneduce Vineyards is a sustainably-minded, 4th-generation farm on a mission to prove the potential for world-class wines exists in the soils of Hunterdon County. Focusing on small lot production, creating unique wines from 100% estate grown grapes.

About Hawk Haven Vineyard & Winery
Established in 2008 on land in Cape May that has been in the Wuerker family since the 1940s; Hawk Haven is owned and operated by husband and wife team Todd & Kenna Wuerker. Todd is a self-taught winemaker, crafting a diverse set of wines from 16 acres of estate-grown grapes. He has his sights set on becoming the first Garden State sparkling specialist.

About Unionville Vineyards
Set on 89 acres of preserved farmland in Hunterdon County, Unionville Vineyards comprises  five estate vineyards spread over three counties, allowing for unique, expressive wines to be crafted from fruit grown in the varying terroirs of central and northern New Jersey.

About Working Dog Winery
Established in 2001 by a group of friends with a shared passion for winemaking, Working Dog Winery has grown into a nearly 20-acre vineyard producing over a dozen vinifera varietals. After 23 years of dedication, the founding members entrusted the winery’s future to Carlee Ludwig, Sharon Kyle, and Kevin Kyle as they entered retirement in December 2024.

About Auburn Road Vineyard & Winery
Founded in 2003 by former Philadelphia-based lawyers Scott & Julianne Donnini, who left the corporate world and never looked back. Jules is a self-taught winemaker, and Scott runs the marketing and operations – together they create old-world style wines with a keen sense of balance that frames the beauty of the fruit.

U.S. Wine Industry by the Numbers

March 10, 2026 By in wine, wine markets 1 Comment

I am always excited to receive the annual “Review of the Industry” issue of  Wine Business Monthly because it is so jam-packed with data and analysis. The 2026 issue (which was distributed at the Unified Symposium’s State of the Industry Session) is especially welcome because it effectively captures major shifts in the U.S. wine industry today. Here are some key takeaways of the WBM report.

Disappearing Wineries

Winery openings often get a lot of attention. Winery closings, not so much. Doors close, equipment is sold off, inventory is quietly liquidated, and memories fade.

If it seems like the number of wines and wineries is always growing it is due in part to the fact that openings are so much more visible than closings. But new wineries enter the market and existing ones exit every year.

Winery closings  were impossible to ignore in 2026, according to WBM. The total number of wineries in the U.S. declined by 3% from 11,450 in 2025 to 11,107 at the start of 2026. That’s a decrease in the net number since there are always some openings to offset closings. The winery count has fallen by 512 since the 2024 data were released according to WBM.

The drop in winery count is widespread. There are wineries in every U.S. state and there were winery closings in every state but one: Missouri (253 wineries). Among the states experiencing losses, California (which has the most wineries) experienced the largest drop in winery count, Pennsylvania had the lowest, with the number falling from 402 to 401 according to the WBM data.

Overall, about one winery closed its doors each day of the year in 2025. That’s a lot of wineries, but not necessarily a lot of wine simply because most wine is made by a few large wineries (see  below) but most wineries are relatively small.

WBM also provides data for Canadian wineries. Canada can count 831 wineries in 2026, according to the WBM data, down from 860 in 2025. Wine is made in every region except the Yukon Territories. The largest number of producers are located in British Columbia (317 wineries down from 329 in 2025), Ontario (284 down from 292), and Quebec (163 down from 170).

Clash of the Titans

The largest U.S. wineries are very large indeed and many of them are privately owned and do not release production figures. WBM profiles the top 50 wineries and estimates production when published data are not available. I thought it would be interesting to compare 2026 data for the top five wineries with the numbers from 2025 and 2016. Here’s what I found.

  1. Gallo is #1 in 2026. It is the largest wine company in the U.S. and in the world by volume. Gallo produced an estimated 90 million cases of wine in 2026, down from 94 million in 2025 but higher than the 75 million it produced in 2016. Gallo’s portfolio grew when it acquired a host of wine brands from Constellation a few years ago. It has retrenched more recently and pivoted to other beverages such as the hot-selling High Noon vodka-based RTD brand.
  2. The Wine Group: 43 million cases in 2026, 40 million in 2025, but 57.5 million in 2016.
  3. Trinchero Family Estates: 17 million in 2026, 19 million in 2025.  It was #5 with 18.5 million in 2016.
  4. Delicato Family Wines: 16 million cases in 2026, 16.3 million cases in 2025. It was #8 with 8 million cases in 2016.
  5. Deutsche Family Wine & Spirits: 12 million cases in 2026, #7 with 13 million cases in 2025. Not listed in the top 30 wineries in 2016.

The rest of the top ten for 2026: Jackson Family Wines (6), Treasury Wine Estates (7), Ste Michelle Wine Estates (8), Bronco Wine Company (9), WX Brands (100).

Constellation Brands, once the largest wine producer in the world, ranks #28 with 750,000 cases of wine produced. It was #3 with 50 million cases in 2016. Although it has retained a number of prestige wine brands such as Robert Mondavi, Constellation is now much more focused on its Mexican beer portfolio.

Bottom Line: The largest wineries are very large indeed, sell wines at many price points, and have considerable resources to deal with the current down market. But even they are not immune to the problems that plague the industry today. The fact that Gallo is down “only” 4 million cases in the last year sort of takes my breath away.

Distribution Bottleneck

It makes sense that WBM’s Review of the Industry issue includes an analysis of wine distributors. In my studies of different industries I have observed that there tends to be one or two major inefficiencies (I call them bottlenecks) in the value chain. Successful firms and even whole industries organize themselves around the problem of breaking through the bottleneck problem.

What’s the bottleneck in U.S. wine? It isn’t growing grapes or actually making the wine. It is getting it through the three-tier system into the hands of those who can sell it.

The two critical features of U.S. wine noted in the WBM report are, first, distribution remains highly concentrated in a few large firms and there is little top line change to report. Even though Republic National pulled out of California last year, for example, it still ranks as the #2 national wine distributor after Southern Glazer’s.

WBM reports that the  distribution bottleneck is getting even narrower, driven by declining demand and narrowing margins. Retailers increasingly focus on a smaller number of SKUs that can generate reliable cash flow, which means that distributors must do the same.

As WBM reports,  “… there are 1,061 unique wine distributors that operate across the United States. That’s slightly fewer than this time last year and roughly one-third of the number of wine distributors in business a few decades ago. … “It’s not a time for great variety, not a time to drive a thousand different things,” said Southern Glazer’s chief marketing and sales officer Gene Sullivan. “Customers are saying ‘Give me that stuff that matters.'”

Pareto and the 80/20 Rule

The great Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed the 80/20 phenomenon in 1896 and it has become a classic management principle reminding us to focus on what’s most important. The rule shows up in many ways. For example, according to my AI intern,

  • Business: 80% of sales often come from 20% of customers.
  • Productivity: 20% of your tasks produce 80% of your meaningful results.
  • Customer service: 20% of issues generate 80% of complaints.
  • Wealth distribution: Pareto originally observed that 20% of Italians owned 80% of the land.

The WBM report presents a variation on the  80/20  rule when it comes to distribution. Twenty percent of wines produce 80 percent of sales. The remaining 80 percent of wines face an uphill climb on their path to market. That’s not really new, to be honest (and maybe it is more like 90/10 in some cases) but it is maybe even more important now in a shrinking market.

Anatomy of Wine’s Triple Crisis

March 3, 2026 By in economic crisis, Shameless Self-Promotion, wine, wine markets 2 Comments

Recently, I’ve noticed that Wine Economist posts and pages that reference my book Wine Wars II: The Global Battle for the Soul of Wine (2022) (such as “Countdown to Wine Wars II and Wine Wars II) are getting a lot of attention.  I think I know why.

The biggest updates in Wine Wars II is a new closing section called Wine’s Triple Crisis. As I re-read this section (and reflect on current wine market conditions), I see why current readers might be especially interested. I’ve pasted below a very brief summary of this part of the book (clipped from the introductory chapter) so that you can see what it is about.

The environmental and economic crises are clear (and I hope I did them justice), so I want to draw your attention to the third issue, wine’s identity crisis. What is wine (is it just alcohol)? Who is it for (just for boomers or just for the wealthy or just for elites)? What does wine do to us (does it make us happy or does it make us sick)?

The identity of wine has changed dramatically in the last 100 years. No wonder the wine business has changed, too. Here’s that excerpt from Wine Wars II.

WINE’S TRIPLE CRISIS
The global wine industry is in the midst of a triple crisis, and I am not really sure how it will end. The climate change crisis comes first. It affects everything if we consider both direct and indirect effects, so it may seem odd to think of it as a wine crisis. Wine grapes generally can be made to grow under quite extreme conditions; in some colder regions, they actually bury the vines in the winter to protect them and unearth them each spring so that they can come back to life (you might call this Lazarus viticulture). But specific wine grape varieties thrive in only very narrow bands of average temperature, and wine regions defined by particular grapes or wine styles are threatened by relatively small changes in environmental conditions. Wine is, therefore, the canary in the coal mine when it comes to climate change. It will feel the impacts before many other industries, and so it is not a surprise, as I explain later, that wine businesses are among the strongest advocates for progressive environmental action.

The climate change crisis dwarfs everything else in the long run, but because the long run can seem far away and we often misjudge how fast it is approaching, climate concerns do not get the attention they deserve. Indeed, as the global reaction to the coronavirus pandemic crisis has demonstrated, climate change generally isn’t treated with the “drop everything” or “operation moonshot” urgency that real crises warrant. But even if the climate change threat were to disappear tomorrow, wine would still be in trouble.

The second crisis is economic. Wine is a magical beverage, but it is a crazy business. Wine’s economic environment is characterized by cyclical, structural, and “wild card” forces that make it difficult to prepare for or successfully execute a business plan.

Global wine consumption grew steadily for the twenty years that ended in about 2008, the date we associate with the global financial crisis. Rising wine sales were important because they slowly soaked up a surplus of wine. Too much wine? Well, for many years the European Union in effect subsidized wine
production to stabilize agricultural economies, especially in France, Italy, and Spain. Wine farmers were paid to grow grapes and to make wine that could not be sold, so some of it was distilled into industrial alcohol. Yuck! Those policies are history, and European winegrowers turned from government subsidy wine to wine aimed at global markets. This is a good thing, but it happened just as wine production increased in other parts of the world, too. The result: a lot of grapes, a lot of wine, and a lot of jobs and incomes at risk.

Rising global wine sales were most welcome in this context, and when sales dropped a bit in 2008, no one was very concerned. “It’s just the economy, dummy,” they said. “Wine will spring back when the economy improves.” But it didn’t, and the next ten years were what I have called “wine’s lost decade.” Why did wine lose its mojo? There are many possible reasons (I explain them later), but the sudden loss in momentum changes the nature of the game from a positive-sum fight, where a rising tide raises all ships, to a zero-sum fight for market share. And the battle isn’t just between Old World and New World or among the growers and producers in these regions; the opponents are now more diverse and unexpected than ever before.

The reason? Wine’s identity crisis. Wine has never been just one thing. It is, after all, both that fancy French Champagne at the top of the wine wall and that big box of Franzia at the bottom. Wine is healthful (think Mediterranean diet) and dangerous (read the government required warnings on wine labels in the United States). It is culture to some and just another commodity to others.

The cartoon character Pogo famously said, “We have met the enemy, and he is us,” and this is true in a way for wine. The biggest threat to wine’s identity is something inherent to wine’s existence: alcohol. You might think that wine is just grape juice with alcohol, but wine doesn’t taste much like the grapes it is made from except in a few specific cases. Fermentation doesn’t just add an alcoholic kick; it transforms the product in complex ways. It’s the same with the way that fermenting yeast makes bread different from flour and water. So wine as we know it is impossible without alcohol, but it may also be impossible with it if antialcohol forces have their way.

Wine’s identity crisis is significant because it seems like those who see wine as a social or health problem, not an essential element in our culture, have seized the momentum. If wine doesn’t know who it is and what it is and cannot tell its story to the world, then how can it survive?

OTBN 2026: The OG Wine Celebration We Need Today

February 24, 2026 By in wine Leave a comment

The year was 1999 and Dorothy J. Gaiter and John Brecher (aka Dottie and John), then the wine columnists for the Wall Street Journal, surveyed the social landscape and realized somebody needed to do something to help people get together their hopes, fears, thoughts, and stories over a glass (or two) of wine.

The Birth of OTBN

Why wine? Here at Wine Economist world headquarters we like to say the water keeps us apart but wine brings us together. Maybe that was it. But maybe it had something to do with the fact that, as I wrote in my book, Around the World in Eighty Wines, wine’s purpose is to make us happy. And the world always needs more happiness. The problem, Dottie and John realized, is that wine is too often set aside for special occasions that don’t come around nearly often enough. Something needed to be done!

The result was a global holiday called Open That Bottle Night (OTBN), which is celebrated on the last Saturday in February each year. Yes, we know that every day should be Open That Bottle Night, but in reality that seldom happens. There are all these bottles sitting around, their superpower to bring people together waiting like Aladdin’s genie to be released.

Wineries Embrace OTBN

As Dottie and John reported last year, many wineries have embraced OTBN and made it their own. Some do this for purely commercial purposes, I suppose, because the wine industry is looking for ways to sell more wine, especially now. But I think it is as much pull as push in many cases. Many consumers are thirsty for community and winery OTBN events often provide the connection that they seek.

Fielding Hills Winery in Chelan, Washington, was one of the wineries featured in that article and we asked manager Megan Mitchell to tell us about what OTBN means to the winery. Megan’s parents, Mike and Karen Wade, founded the winery over 25 years ago (her sister Robin was one of my university students). Here’s what she had to say:

At Fielding Hills, we have been “unofficially” celebrating Open That Bottle Night since Karen stumbled upon Dorothy J. Gaiter & John Brecher’s Love by the Glass: Tasting Notes from a Marriage (2003) in the early 2000s. In 2024, we celebrated our 25th harvest by hosting twenty-five events though the year, Open That Bottle Night became an “official” celebration at the winery.

During the evening, we journey back through decades of winemaking and growing seasons, reflecting on what was going on not only in the vineyard but also in the world. On our tasting sheet, I like to put some pop culture references as well as the price of gas and of a dozen eggs….

The fun of it is that you never know what you’re going to get or what people will like. My favorite part of the night is the end, when we conduct a straw poll to see what people enjoyed the most…it’s usually a pretty even split between the old stuff and the new stuff. … In 2026, we are going to pour a vertical of merlot… 2013 (#1 Merlot in WA state), 2014, 2015, and a 100% 2015. I also like to pour a current release (2022) and a barrel sample (2024).

How Do You Celebrate OTBN?

There is probably no wrong way to celebrate OTBN. Since our first OTBN in 2009, we have enjoyed formal dinners, restaurant dinners, informal gatherings, and even a Zoom session during COVID, which was a surprisingly moving experience. In 2011 we were traveling in Argentina and held OTBN on our own. These days we host a potluck where our friends bring wine, a story about the wine, and some food to share.

It is always a memorable experience, but the lasting memories are seldom about the wines themselves. It is usually the stories that stick in our minds. It is as if opening the bottle actually opens something else, something more important. I don’t think I can explain it any better than that.

Sue asked some of our long-time OTBN friends to talk about what OTBN means to them. Here’s what they had to say:

“It’s now like an annual holiday, enshrined as it is on the February calendar,” said Mary. “For me it’s not so much the wine — it is, of course, but ‘wine’ has come to mean many more things: the steadiness of friendship, the nostalgia of memories, the uncomplicated joy of gathering. And so the wine, gaining complexity and texture as it ages, but also a simple pleasure. When I choose the wine now — which, of course, Ron [her late husband] the masterful storyteller always did, so it’s kind of a poignant task — I think of those happy times we had together.”

Ken, who, with his wife, Rosemary, has hosted several times over the years, said  that OTBN is a “great opportunity to see cherished friends and share our mutual appreciation of delicious food and wine while listening to some great stories. I always learn more about wine and the people with whom I’m sharing it.”

Richard said, “Every year is a special year, and I am sure this year will be no different. Thank you both for introducing OTBN and including me and Bonnie in the festivities!” He cited two memorable years in particular:

From 2010: That was the night that Ken and Rosemary had their “indentured children” as food and beverage servers. It was their teenaged son’s first taste of Chateau d’Yquem — and Richard’s as well.  The son’s assessment: “The wine Mr. C. let me taste was really good.” This also counts as one of Ken’s top memories.

From 2014: Ken and Rosemary celebrated their 25th anniversary by serving 25-year-0ld wines plus wines of their children’s birth years.

Is OTBN a Serious Holiday?

Dottie and John contacted us as they were preparing a recent Grape Collective column on OTBN. They were concerned about celebrating wine when there are so many very serious social, political, economic, and even geo-political issues that demand our attention. Is it un-serious to think about wine at a time like this?  Our reply became part of their story:

This will be our 17th OTBN. We have a core group of six people, with others off and on over the years. Our OTBN isn’t just about the wine — its heart is the people and the stories they tell about the wine. Yes, these are indeed difficult times. It seems the things that divide us as a country and a world are even deeper than before. This makes Open That Bottle Night even more important. Wine’s superpower is that it brings us together and coming together over a glass of wine is sometimes the first step to bigger things. Of course we are celebrating OTBN. Now more than ever.

I guess when you think about it OTBN really is a serious holiday, but the trick is not to take it too seriously. Because it really isn’t about the wine. It’s about what the wine can do when we share it with others.

Happy OTBN 2026. Share the wine, the stories, and the love.

Trump Tariffs: Why I’m Waiting for Godot

February 17, 2026 By in Uncategorized 5 Comments

Sometimes I feel like one of the characters in “Waiting for Godot,” Samuel Beckett’s famous play where nothing much happens and yet suspense somehow builds until … nothing happens again. Whoever Godot is, he never makes an appearance. The wait goes on and on.

It’s a little like waiting for shoes to drop. One … one … one … when will that second shoe hit the floor?

When is a Tax not a Tax?

The object of my frustration is the Trump tariff case that is being considered by the U.S. Supreme Court. The tariffs apply to and distort trade for thousands of products, including wine.

The basic issue is whether the tariffs of 2025 were legally implemented. Tariffs are a tax on imports that discourage imports and raise revenue (about $30 billion per month during the last half of 2025). The Constitution requires that revenue acts must originate in the House of Representatives and therefore cannot be imposed by edict from above. The architects of the Constitution had understandable concerns about taxation without representation, as you may remember from your history classes.

Congress has given the President power to “regulate” international trade in some circumstances, but tariffs are not specifically mentioned in this regard. The law is more commonly applied to trade embargoes, which prohibit trade, but don’t generate revenue of any sort.

Do the tariffs tax or do they regulate? The Administration argues for regulate, but President Trump inconveniently brags about the revenue haul. Experts speculate that the Supreme Court will strike down some but not all of the tariffs on the basis of the regulate/revenue distinction. Stay tuned.

When Will The Supreme Court Rule?

This is the Godot question because we have already been waiting for a while for an answer. The ruling may be released later this week (the date February 20 is often mentioned), but there is no set timetable. The wait could extend into the spring.

How will the Trump Administration respond?

If the Supreme Court rules against some of the tariffs, Administration officials have suggested that they will act quickly to re-impose them under different laws with different justifications. Such action is likely to result in legal action, of course.

This means that the final status of the tariffs could be tied up in the courts for a long time, extending the Godot problem into 2027 or beyond. So February 20, if that turns out to be the Supreme Court decision day, may not be the end of the play but merely the start of the next act.

Follow the Money

If a tax is improperly levied it should be refunded. I’m not a constitutional scholar, but that seems a reasonable principle. So even if improperly imposed tariffs are replaced by new proper ones (if that happens), it seems like the previous payments should be refunded. Do you agree? Or is this some sort of “finders keepers” situation where the government keeps the revenue it should not have collected in the first place?

Making those who bore the burden of the taxes whole is not necessarily an easy task, since costs were often passed on through the value chain. In economic terms, it is a difference between legal incidence of the tax (who wrote the check to the government) and economic incidence (who paid the ultimate cost). If you paid more for a car because of tariffs on steel, aluminum, or imported parts for it, or if you had your hours cut at a factory because of declining profits or sales due to higher costs, then you suffered the economic incidence. Don’t hold your breath waiting for a tariff refund check.

The problem is made more complicated by the vast sums involved. If the government is forced to issue bonds to borrow the refund money, the impact on interest rates and credit availability could be jaw-dropping. I expect the refunds, if there are any, will be tied up in court, too.

Who Really Paid the Tariffs?

Some of the people who favor the tariffs act as though they are a tax on foreign producers or governments, but in fact the tariffs are mainly collected from U.S. firms who then attempt to pass them on to clients and customers or bear them as higher costs. There is only a foreign burden if imposing the tax drives down world prices, spreading the impact abroad.

Last week the New York Federal Reserve Bank research department released a study that found that 90 percent of the tariff burden fell on domestic consumers in the form of higher prices and on domestic firms in the form of higher costs. This is actually a bit lower than previous studies that put the figure at 96 percent.

Much of the burden of the tariffs, however, takes the form of what didn’t happen, not what did, because taxes both raise price and reduce quantity exchanged. Thus a full accounting of the burden must include the lost utility of the final goods that were not imported because of the tariff costs and the lost value of U.S. exports that didn’t happen because imported parts and raw materials were too costly or not available. One reason that the inflation impact of the tariffs so far is so modest is that inflation only measures what did happen while much of the real burden is related to what didn’t happen.

So what’s not happening is important. That’s a real Waiting for Godot situation.

Tit for Tat

But we won’t really know the score until we see how foreign governments and consumers decide how to react to the evolving tariff situation. Checkers is one of the first board games that children learn to play and they quickly learn about tit for tat and the need to think several moves ahead. How will gains and losses be distributed when the dust finally settles?

So there is a long road ahead of us before we know what will happen about tariffs. I hope the insiders are right and that the Supreme Court will get the process started on February 20.

Until then I’ll be here … waiting for Godot.

Five Things We Learned at the 2026 Unified Symposium

February 10, 2026 By in Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine markets Leave a comment

Sue and I have recently returned from the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento. The Unified is North America’s largest wine industry gathering. It is a big conference, so we employ a divide-and-conquer strategy. Sue focuses on the big trade show, I see what’s going on at the sessions, and we both talk with everyone we can in the hallways and receptions.

We don’t have a polished report to present, but here is a collection of field notes that capture the essence of our experience this year.

  1. Stress Test

Just about all of the 1000+ people who attended the State of the Industry session seemed to have one of these 5-inch flexible “stress bottles,” which they squeezed for relief during tense moments. Kudos to sponsor Vintage Crop for helping us recognize that we are in difficult times and we need to find positive ways to channel our anxiety and move forward.

Attendance was somewhat lower this year — understandable given the economic situation — but the overall mood was more positive than you might expect. No one fooled themselves into thinking that good times are around the corner, but the data seem to suggest that the market may stabilize in 2027 or early 2028. What’s it going to look like then? What can we do now to prepare for what lies ahead? Those questions dominated the discussion.

Squeezing the stress bottles might have helped everyone concentrate a bit better on the parts of the situation that they can control, even if there is still much uncertainty.

2. Ask Your Doctor

The Tuesday Keynote Luncheon featured a conversation about wine and health between Drinks Insider’s Felicity Carter and Laura Catena, head of Argentina’s Catena winery and, significantly, also a medical doctor. Catena somehow managed for many years to be both a winemaker in Mendoza and an emergency room physician in San Francisco. I wish I had half her energy, discipline, and focus.

There is a lot of information, misinformation, and controversy about the health effects of wine. Many in the wine business complain about a tilted playing field because they are not permitted to make positive health statements about wine while, on the other side of the debate, anti-alcohol proponents can say just about anything.

The Carter and Catena presentation was packed full of facts and analysis. The large luncheon audience is certainly much better informed now about the risks, trade-offs, and benefits of moderate wine consumption.

But is there a good way to get the message out to the broader consumer market? Of course, according to Sue. Dr. Catena advised consumers to consult with their doctors instead of the internet. There are people with particular medical circumstances or family histories who really shouldn’t drink any alcohol at all. For the rest of us — well, it depends on a lot of things including what we drink, how, and how much. A medical professional who knows the facts and the personal circumstances is best positioned to advise on this as with other health matters.

They also suggested looking beyond scary headlines. Good medical studies are complex, and require the reader to dive deeply into the methodology,  the assumptions and biases that may be present, and the results.

3. It’s a Wine World After All

You hear lots of international languages and accents at the Unified. Spanish, of course (see below), French, Italian, Portuguese, British, Australian, New Zealand, South African, and more. Wine is a global industry and the Unified is the largest industry gathering in the western hemisphere. The world comes to Sacramento every year for this big event.

Sue loves to walk the trade show floor connecting with old friends and looking for the new and surprising. Two new booths stood out this year. What was ITA (the Italian Trade Agency) doing at the Unified? We often work with the ITA when they are promoting exports from Italian wineries and regions, but the Unified trade show isn’t where you go to sell wine to consumers; it’s where you go to sell equipment and services to winegrowers and wine makers. And that’s why the ITA was there. Italy is an important wine technology center (as we learned when we attended SIMEI a few years ago), and the ITA was there to support those businesses.

Sue was also surprised when she stopped to inspect some of the most beautiful wine labels she’s ever seen and then discovered they came from China. They are the work of CIR Label, a custom label creator for global brands. The business was founded by designers who had trouble locating label makers who could realize their visions and now it focuses on making clients’ visions come to life. CIR stands for Creativity Into Reality and the creativity was clearly on display. You can see some sample labels here, but the photos don’t really do them justice because the textures of the final product don’t come through very well.

They say they can deliver labels about a week after final approval. Amazing.

The Unified was a bold investment for CIR Label. Sue asked if they had any existing U.S. clients and the answer was no. The booth was pretty busy when we were there, which is a good sign. I hope they come back next year and we can see how their U.S. business has developed.

4. Spanish Spoken Here

You won’t be surprised to know that the U.S. wine industry is multilingual. Spanish is an important language in the vineyards and cellars  — and really at every stage and level of the industry. Since the Unified is by and for the entire industry, the development of Spanish-language programming has been a high priority.

The Spanish programming is concentrated on Thursday morning and we heard that there was some anxiety about the gatherings because of the possibility of ICE activity around the convention center. These are tense times. Would people stay away? Fortunately, we are told, participation was very strong and the programs were successful. That’s a good thing because the future of wine needs all the help it can get from all the talented people it can attract and foster. Spanish (and many other languages) spoken here for sure.

5. Heard on the Trade Show Floor

The trade show covers every aspect of the wine industry, from the ground up to the finished product. Attendance here seemed to be lower than in previous years; an organization that sent 20 representatives in the past may have sent only ten to 15 this year. The enthusiasm for the show, however, was in full force.

Robotics, computer systems, and other technologies for both the vineyard and wine production continue to be large presence. Like other agri-businesses, the wine sector is facing worker shortages and increasing labor costs, plus on-going concerns about environmental impacts and water consumption (among a gazillion other topics). Whatever you might need, someone at the trade show will have a technology for it.

In recent years, a few trade show  exhibitors included technology for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol wines; not so much this year. Maybe it is still too early to know what lies ahead for NA and LA wines.

And in a year when vineyard owners are pulling up vines, there were several purveyors of plants doing business, an indication that growers are thinking about the future even in difficult times.

This article only scratches the surface of the 2026 Unified Symposium. Reading about it isn’t enough. If you are seriously interested in the U.S. wine industry, you’ve simply got to go and experience it yourself. Mark your calendar for January 26-28, 2027.

Vinho Verde and the White Wine Resurgence

February 3, 2026 By in Portuguese wine, wine, wine markets 2 Comments

We seem to be in the midst of a white wine resurgence. There has been a shift to white from red in many markets around the world. Certainly, it is happening here in the U.S. The French market has seen sales momentum move from red to pink to white. Even in Asia, I am told, the old orthodoxy that wine’s first duty is to be red is changing. Aromatic white wines (which seem so well suited to some of the cuisines) are getting attention.

There are certainly many reasons for the “red shift” to white. Affordability is probably part of the answer, since white wines are often cheaper than reds. Recent NIQ data published in Wine Business Monthly, for example, puts the average price of white wines sold through U.S. market channels at $8.48 per bottle. The average price for red wine is almost 25 percent more at $10.54.

Case Study: Vinho Verde

Recently Sue and I have been taking a closer look at Vinho Verde, the popular Portuguese white wine, and we think it might provide some insights into the white wine situation. Vinho Verde isn’t a grape variety (although a lot of people probably think that); it is a region in northern Portugal that has produced crisp white wine for hundreds of years.

Vinho Verde is a wine with many faces, which is part of its appeal. It can be an inexpensive daily drink. The Broadbent NV Vinho Verde, for example, has been a popular brand in the U.S. for nearly 20  years. It is both good (Decanter 91 points) and, with a retail price hovering around $10 per bottle, a very good value. No wonder it shows up frequently on both “best” and “best buy” lists. You can usually find a bottle in The Wine Economist wine fridge, especially in the warmer months.

But there is more to Vinho Verde than good value, as we learned a few years ago on a trip to Lisbon. A friend guided us to Cervejaria Ramiro, the popular seafood restaurant, and recommended a particular Vinho Verde made from the Alvarinho grape variety. It might have been the grape or the maker or the ridiculously delicious Ramiro food, but the result was an elevated experience that told us there was more to learn about “green wine.”

Take the Next Step

Now some producers are taking the next step by focusing on single-variety Vinho Verde wines from native grapes. The idea is to show another face of Vinho Verde, with distinct characteristics and greater complexity.

We recently tried two wines that convinced us that this is a promising path to follow. The first was the Casa da Tojeira – Tojeira Arinto 2023, which is made entirely from the native Arinto grape variety (it is more common to find blends of Loureiro, Avesso, Azal, Arinto, and other grapes). The wine was well balanced and developed nicely in the glass as it warmed up. An excellent introduction to this style. Casa da Tojeira makes a full line of white wines that explore every aspect of Vinho Verde. I hope we have an opportunity to explore more of their wines in the future.

Next came a bottle of Márcio Lopes – Pequenos Rebentos Vinhas Velhas Loureiro 2022, made from the Loureiro grape variety. The wine was intense  with complex aromas and flavors. I am not sure I would have guessed Vinho Verde if I didn’t already know it. It was completely different from anything I can remember tasting before. Now I want to taste more wines like this.

Loureiro is Portuguese for “laurel” according to my reference materials, and if you think of the aroma of a laurel hedge and then add in orange and acacia blossoms and maybe some peach or pear, you begin to sense the nature of this wine. It can be so intense, in fact, that it is often blended with other grapes to tone it down a bit. Quite an experience.

The thing about these next level wines is that the price premium to move up is relatively small. High-end Vinho Verde like these sell in the $20 to $25 range. This fact is perhaps another reason for the shift to white wines. Red wines in this price range often don’t deliver the complexity and distinctiveness that these white wines provide.

I don’t know if the “red shift” to white wines will last, but it seems like a good idea to take advantage of the opportunities to try new wines.

The Greatest Wine in the World?

We cannot write a column featuring Vinho Verde without telling a story about the “greatest wine in the world.” Sue and I were in Evora, Portugal, for a conference presentation and we were having dinner with a group that included many producers. We were enjoying some Vinho Verde and I congratulated the winemaker on his delicious wine.

He shook my hand enthusiastically and proclaimed that Vinho Verde was the greatest wine in the world. It was good to drink, he told me, and good to grow and make because vineyard yields were relatively high, which generated profitable margins, too. It was green wine in the economic sense. He loved it.

Who am I to disagree? Maybe Vinho Verde really is the greatest wine in the world!

Who’s Gaining Ground in the U.S. Wine Market? Georgia, Naturally

January 27, 2026 By in emerging wine regions, wine, wine history 2 Comments

The opening scene of season eight episode one of the insanely popular Netflix series “Somebody Feed Phil” finds our hero, Phil Rosenthal, breaking a sweat in a Georgian vineyard, trying (and failing) to keep up with the women who are working around him.

Although much of the action takes place away from the vineyards in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, wine is never far below the surface and it often takes center stage. No surprise. Georgia’s traditional amber qvevri wines symbolize the qualities of Georgian people and culture, rooted in tradition, drawing on deep reserves of resilience and determination. Somebody Feed Phil is really a show about family (don’t you agree?) and wine is integral to Georgia’s family life.

You might be surprised to find Georgian wine on Netflix. If so, you would probably be even more surprised to learn that many of the show’s viewers probably reacted by saying, Georgian wine? I’ve tried that. And I like it.

Georgia, Naturally

Georgian wine is on the rise here in the U.S. market, albeit starting from a relatively small base. Wines of Georgia reports that Georgian exports to the U.S. have increased at a 15.5 percent compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024. That’s impressive growth under any circumstances, but especially noteworthy given the overall decline in the U.S. market. What’s behind this phenomenon?

Part of the answer is that Wines of Georgia and its partners are working very hard to tell the story of Georgia, with its 8000 years of wine history. The current campaign, “Georgia, Naturally” draws inspiration from Georgia’s reputation for natural wines (made in the traditional qvervi clay vessels). It does not hurt that images of Georgia highlight the qualities that make it a popular nature and adventure tourism destination.

Wines of Georgia is investing heavily in education programs in the U.S., working to bring Georgian wines and their stories to dozens of events across the country. That’s why I think that many Netflix viewers won’t be discovering Georgian wines for the first time.

Hurdles and Headwinds

Distribution is a major hurdle for imported wines and that is perhaps especially true for small-production wines from unexpected places made with unfamiliar grape varieties. Some Georgian producers have apparently addressed this dilemma by forging partnerships with Total Wine & More through its Winery Direct program.

Our local Total Wine store lists 41 different Georgian wines (most are Winery Direct products) in its inventory. Isn’t that amazing? There is a particular aisle in our local store that features wines from off-the-beaten-path areas and Sue jokes that it has become the Georgia aisle in recent months. Being on the wine wall doesn’t guarantee success, but it is hard to sell what isn’t there.

Sue and I visited Georgia a few years ago for a United Nations wine tourism conference. We arrived full of questions and with a few doubts, but we came away persuaded (you can read about our adventures here). We were impressed with many of the qvevri wines because of the tension we sensed in each glass. They really tasted alive.

But we also learned that there is much more to Georgian wines than we expected, both in terms of style and the many (hundreds!) of indigenous  grape varieties that, like Georgia itself, have survived through the centuries. Resilience is an important Georgian quality.

Bubbles, Amber, Red

Sue and I recently hosted a Georgia-inspired dinner for friends who have a particular love for and appreciation of these wines. We tasted three wines. We started with a Mtsvane Estate Pét-Nat from Kakheti, a bright sparkling white wine. This is the second Georgian sparkling wine we’ve sampled (both from Mtsvane Estate) and both were delicious.

Next came the 2023 Vazisubani Estate 3 Qvevri, a blend of the indigenous Rkatsiteli, Mtsvane, and Kisi grape varieties. Fermented and aged in qvevri, this “white” wine is really amber from the extended skin contact and a bit of a trickster. The color suggests strong flavors but the wine is quite subtle in the glass.

The hit of the evening was the 2021 Vazisubani Estate Saperavi Qvevri. Saperavi is the Georgian grape that is probably best known here in the U.S. market (thanks in part to Finger Lakes pioneer Dr. Konstantin Frank, who introduced the  Saperavi grape to the U.S. many years ago). This wine was the perfect complement to our meal and, because Vazisubani Estate is part of Total Wine’s Winery Direct program, it is widely available. (Our particular local store, however, was “sold out” when we last checked.)

Saperavi is a good place to start, but the amber qvevri wines might be where you want to finish because these seem to be the wines that Georgians drink most of all (as you can see in this video trailer for a film called “Our Blood is Wine.“)

 

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But wait. There’s even more!

Georgia was the focus of season six, episode three of  the popular video series “V is for Vino.”  You can view the episode here or on the V is for Vino YouTube channel.

Dark Clouds and Silver Linings

January 20, 2026 By in Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine history, wine markets Leave a comment

I have been busy getting ready for next week’s “State of the Industry” session at the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento. The theme of the Unified in 2026 is “Reframe the Narrative.”  There was a lot of bad news about the wine business in 2025. Where are we headed in 2026 and beyond? How can we get out of this rut?

This is my 15th consecutive year on this panel and I thought it would be interesting to look back at my first presentation, which was in 2012. It took some fiddling to find the files, but here are the slides I presented back then along with my unedited and very rough presentation notes.

If you take a few minutes to read through this material, you’ll notice that while the wine business environment was very different back in 2012 in terms of the headlines, many of the detailed concerns were similar to today. Margins were tight then, for example, and tight now, too, but for very different reasons.

Economics is called the dismal science, so I suppose that dark clouds and silver linings are always on the cards. The more things change the more they stay the same in that regard. I think my final point (Boulding’s Law) has held up pretty well, don’t you? Here’s my 2012 report.

The State of the Wine Industry 2012: A Global Perspective

I study globalization and wine so I am here today to start off this session with a global perspective on the state of the industry.

Wine has always been a global industry, or as global as trade barriers and transportation costs allowed.

It is not an accident that when David Ricardo wrote his economics textbook almost 300 years ago, the example he used to illustrate international trade was the wine trade.

It has always been important to have a global perspective on wine but now more than ever. The wine world has become a tight little world where international and global effects cannot be ignored.

Today’s session will have a good deal of good news — a lot more than in some recent years. As an economist, however, it is my job to channel Alan Greenspan back when he warned about the dangers of “irrational exuberance.”

Silver linings do not always come wrapped in dark clouds, but sometimes they do. And it is important to understand them and to think strategically about them.

A Dangerous Phase

One silver lining is growth. The US economy should continue to grow in 2012, although perhaps more slowly than in 2011. And the wine market should continue to recover.

But the dark cloud that surrounds this is the global economy, which has entered a “Dangerous Phase” according to the International Monetary Fund. The global economy will grow this year but more slowly than before and with the largest single economic area — the European Union — likely falling into recession.

GLOBAL GROWTH SQUEEZE

And so economic leaders will be desperately looking for growth … and where will they find it? Consumers do not seem able to carry the load, especially with the housing crisis still unresolved.

Business investment is also inadequate due to poor future expectations and tight credit market conditions.

Government is handcuffed by its own debt and politically gridlocked as well.

So this leaves exports and we can expect nations to push for every competitive advantage for their products to try to grab the growth they need.

EXCHANGE RATES

This explains why exchange rates will be especially volatile in 2012. The US has successfully run a secret “weak dollar” policy for the past few years and now other countries are following suit. Competitive depreciations or currency wars are likely as more countries try to use exchange rates to grasp the growth they desperately require.

WILD CARDS

There are many wild cards that could turn dark clouds into silver linings or vice versa. The most troubling wild cards are the US and the European Union. Will US growth stall? And how will the election affect economic policy?

The questions are even more serious for Europe. How deep will the recession be and will Germany be part of it? And, of course, will the Euro survive in its present form? Big questions.

A Tight Squeeze for Wine

This combination of silver linings and dark clouds will create a Tight Squeeze for the wine industry. Let me explain how these pieces fit together.

A TIGHT SQUEEZE FOR WINE

These global economic factors in combination with the particular dynamic of the wine industry produce the conditions for what I am calling a Tight Squeeze for wine.

INCREASING COMPETITION

Competition is increasing all along the supply chain. There is more competition for wine grapes and bulk wine and more competition as well for those markets and market segments high decent margins.

THE BIG SQUEEZE

Wine maker margins will feel A Big Squeeze.

You will hear a lot today about the competition for wine grapes and bulk wine. Short market conditions are pushing up prices in many key market segments.

Wine producers naturally want to pass along higher costs to consumers but this is problematic in many market segments. Slow economic growth combined with buyers who see discounted prices as the new normal means that some producers will be squeezed out of some markets because of shrinking or even negative margins.

The squeeze will put increased emphasis on lower cost alternative sources of grapes and bulk wines and on those brands and market segments where margins can be maintained or perhaps even increased.

CURRENCY SHIFTS

The exchange rate shifts I talked about a minute ago will impact the Big Squeeze in several ways, creating both silver linings in the form of lower import costs and also dark clouds due to greater import competition.

The dollar is likely to continue to increase in value, but exchange rates are the most difficult thing to predict in economics and it is impossible to tell for sure how individual currency values will be affected. There will be silver linings for some, I’m sure, and clouds for others.

WILD CARDS: CHINA

There are many wild cards in the Big Squeeze scenario, but the biggest is certainly China. Economic growth will slow this year in China, but how much? The worst case scenario would be for Europe’s recession to be deeper than expected and the US recovery to stall. In this case China’s growth could fall dramatically.

How would this affect wine? Well, the direct effects would be rather small I think – slower growth in an otherwise rapidly growing market.

But the indirect effects would be significant. If China’s industrial production slows so would its raw material purchases, which would hit the Chilean Peso, Australian dollar and perhaps the South African rand particularly hard.

What’s the Best Way to Prepare for the Future?

And finally I suggest for your consideration Boulding’s Law, named for Kenneth Boulding, the great economist. Boulding once conducted a study of the history of the future — he looked back in history to see what people thought would happen in the future and then he fast forwarded to find out if they were right.

His conclusion. When the future finally came around, people were generally surprised — even when it was exactly what they expected.

Hence Boulding’s Law: the best way to prepare for the future is to prepare to be surprised!

The Deion Sanders Theory of Wine Markets

January 13, 2026 By in Supply and Demand, wine, wine markets 10 Comments

Cyclical or structural? That was one of the most-asked questions in the wine business when everyone gathered for the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento last year.

Was the decline in sales due to a structural change? There were a lot of structural shift theories including generational change (bye-bye, boomers), heightened health awareness, affordability (a hot term right now), and more.

Other analysts, however, viewed the problem more in cyclical terms. The wine industry experiences periodic booms and busts. And consumers go through life-cycles, drinking less wine when young, more as they mature, and then less again when they start to “age out” of the market. Maybe we are just caught in the down-cycle and things will turn up if we give them time.

The Deion Sanders Theory: Both

A year later the answer looks clear to me. Structural or cyclical? The answer, which I am stealing from a 1995 Pizza Hut television commercial starring Deion Sanders and Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, is simple: Both. [Click on Deion’s image above to see the video.]

This looks to be the most serious global wine industry crisis in at least a generation, so maybe it is no surprise that it isn’t the result of a single force, but the “perfect storm” phenomenon. Certainly all of the structural shift concerns are at work and warrant attention and I’m not sure we have fully figured them out yet.

But this year attention has turned to the cycle problem in part because we can see it happening right in front of our eyes. But can we do anything about it? The problem is that the existence of large inventories has discouraged wineries from buying grapes and making wine. Vines are being grubbed up in California and around the world in response to the production decline.  Inventory cycles may even result in a shortage of wine grapes in a few years, which will be a strange sight after the recent surplus. A shortage? Read on.

Econ 101 and All That

The role of inventories in the phenomenon of business cycles was part of the syllabus when I first studied macroeconomics. The logic went like this:  Suppose there is an exogenous shock that reduced overall demand (see structural shift above). This leaves businesses holding unplanned excess inventories. They respond by reducing new orders (which deepens the decrease in demand) until stocks are depleted.

One characteristic of decentralized markets, and the factor that tends to make cycles repeat themselves, is the phenomenon of overshooting. When firms draw down inventories, they tend to wait too long to stop, creating a shortage. And when they build up inventories again they overshoot on the up side, too. This isn’t a strategy. It’s just what happens when you have to guess where the bottom and the top of the cycle are. And that’s a serious concern now, that today’s surplus could turn into a shortage in a few years.

Stocks and Flows

Right now we have large inventories in many parts of the wine market. Some wine producers have so much unsold inventory from previous vintages that they made very little (and sometimes none at all) in 2025. They won’t fully return to the grape markets until those surplus stocks either sell out or “age out.”

And, to be honest, some wine consumers have accumulated pretty big inventories, too, and don’t really need to buy a lot of wine in the short run. Wine production (which economists call a flow variable) won’t start to rise until inventories (a stock variable) have fallen for consumers, retailers, distributors, and producers. When that will happen is hard to predict, but it is the biggest question confronting the industry today.

The impact of high inventories and relatively low sales is a wine problem, but not just a wine problem. Jim Beam, the famous Bourbon producer, recently announced that it was pausing production for a year (a year!) to allow time for excess  inventories to decline to a sustainable level. And apparently there is a glut of Scotch whisky, too.

What Would Deion Do?

What will the market look like when stocks and flows are back in equilibrium? Not like it did before. That’s because of the structural shifts that have taken place. The U.S. wine market will be smaller and different, but it will still be there.

So what should we do? Focus on the structural elements as many did last year? Or try to guess how the cycle will play out and develop strategies accordingly? I don’t know what you are going to do, but I think I can guess how Deion would answer that question.

Both.