Alan Greenspan was famous for many things, most of all because of his long tenure as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Economists like me remember Greenspan for his deep knowledge and understanding of economic data down to the micro-level. He could see how the business world was interconnected better than most, spotting macro-trends by closely monitoring purchases of new brooms and patterns in men’s underwear sales. Amazing.

Here at The Wine Economist, we sometimes try to think like Alan Greenspan would if he were focusing on the wine industry. Here’s our most recent attempt.

The Coffee Cost Conundrum

Have you noticed what’s happened to coffee?  The price of coffee has risen dramatically, driven by a perfect storm of forces ranging from uncooperative Mother Nature to Trump tariffs. It’s a real problem for coffee addicts like me.

So how have buyers responded to higher prices? The Econ 101 answer is simple. Buy less coffee. Buy cheaper coffee. Buy coffee substitutes (tea? Diet Coke?). Buy less of coffee complements (like cream and sugar, for example, or maybe jelly donuts if you are into that sort of thing). The conventional wisdom about coffee demand is pretty straightforward.

So it is interesting (this would please Greenspan) that at least some of the effects are unexpected. According to the Financial Times, the head of Italian coffee roaster Lavazza reports that consumer demand has shifted from cheaper ground coffee products to more expensive whole bean coffee. That’s not how higher prices are supposed to work!

And the shift is not small. Lavazza’s U.K. market whole-bean coffee sales increased 20.3 percent by volume and 36.8 percent by value in the last year. Unit sales of expensive machines that grind and then brew whole-bean coffee rose by 33.5 percent.

Lavazza speculates that many consumers are simply buying less but better (premiumisation, we call it on planet wine). But there’s also this: It seems like part of the pattern is an attempt to recreate the on-premise experience at home(and for less)  with better beans and equipment. It’s a substitution effect, but substituting home-brewed off-premise coffee for the more expensive on-premise product while trying to maintain the experience.

So What Does This Have to Do with Wine?

I know what you’re thinking. That’s interesting, Professor, but what does it have to do with wine? Well, here’s the Greenspan connection

The Drinks Business reports that, “Restaurant wine pricing in the US has become “a particular pain point” for the category, with some venues now taking six-times markups on bottles, according to Gino Colangelo, founder and president of Colangelo & Partners, the New York-based wine PR agency.”

“Now restaurants are taking six times markup,” he said, pointing to a real-world example of a Prosecco with an ex-cellar cost of around €1.70 a bottle appearing on a New York wine list at $60. “Prosecco producers are flabbergasted… it’s like, how can my wine be $60 a bottle?”

Restaurant wine pricing strategies are a complex topic, as we’ve learned from reader comments on previous Wine Economist columns. Markups differ for bottles versus by-the-glass, they differ for different price points, and of course they differ by region and type of establishment. In fact, you might say that the thing that restaurant wine price strategies have in common is that they are different.

My favorite strategy is from a European restaurateur who says he marks up wine by the same margin that he marks up food. The only difference is that customers can easily use a smartphone to calculate the wine markup but they seldom think to do the math on the food.

So a six-fold markup is not universal, but I am not alone in seeing higher prices for bottles and glasses of wine. What’s the consumer reaction? The Econ 101 answer is clear. If wine prices are higher, consumers purchase less wine, cheaper wine, wine substitutes, and they cut back on wine complements like appetizers and bar munchies.

We see fewer bottles on tables but perhaps that’s both the cause of the higher markups and their effect. Lower volumes induce higher prices, which cause lower volumes, etc. etc. Not a good dynamic.

Now let’s go beyond Econ 101. Thinking about the coffee situation, maybe there is also a shift from on-premise to off-premise consumption. The Drinks Business report cites evidence for “pre-loading,” for example.

…  increasing numbers of Americans are now drinking at home before heading out – so-called “preloading” – specifically to avoid paying inflated markups on wine and cocktails once at the table.

Another possibility is what I call the Lavazza Effect. Higher restaurant wine prices increase the total cost of dining out for quality-conscious foodies. It makes sense that they might shift to home consumption, saving money on wine and spending it on a Food Network-inspired elegant meal at home. This might partly account for the fact that sales of $25+ wines have held up a bit better than the rest of the market.

The loss of wine sales at high-end restaurants may be Costco’s gain? Maybe there is a marketing opportunity here? Just trying to see the situation like Alan G.

Sometimes I feel like one of the characters in “Waiting for Godot,” Samuel Beckett’s famous play where nothing much happens and yet suspense somehow builds until … nothing happens again. Whoever Godot is, he never makes an appearance. The wait goes on and on.

It’s a little like waiting for shoes to drop. One … one … one … when will that second shoe hit the floor?

When is a Tax not a Tax?

The object of my frustration is the Trump tariff case that is being considered by the U.S. Supreme Court. The tariffs apply to and distort trade for thousands of products, including wine.

The basic issue is whether the tariffs of 2025 were legally implemented. Tariffs are a tax on imports that discourage imports and raise revenue (about $30 billion per month during the last half of 2025). The Constitution requires that revenue acts must originate in the House of Representatives and therefore cannot be imposed by edict from above. The architects of the Constitution had understandable concerns about taxation without representation, as you may remember from your history classes.

Congress has given the President power to “regulate” international trade in some circumstances, but tariffs are not specifically mentioned in this regard. The law is more commonly applied to trade embargoes, which prohibit trade, but don’t generate revenue of any sort.

Do the tariffs tax or do they regulate? The Administration argues for regulate, but President Trump inconveniently brags about the revenue haul. Experts speculate that the Supreme Court will strike down some but not all of the tariffs on the basis of the regulate/revenue distinction. Stay tuned.

When Will The Supreme Court Rule?

This is the Godot question because we have already been waiting for a while for an answer. The ruling may be released later this week (the date February 20 is often mentioned), but there is no set timetable. The wait could extend into the spring.

How will the Trump Administration respond?

If the Supreme Court rules against some of the tariffs, Administration officials have suggested that they will act quickly to re-impose them under different laws with different justifications. Such action is likely to result in legal action, of course.

This means that the final status of the tariffs could be tied up in the courts for a long time, extending the Godot problem into 2027 or beyond. So February 20, if that turns out to be the Supreme Court decision day, may not be the end of the play but merely the start of the next act.

Follow the Money

If a tax is improperly levied it should be refunded. I’m not a constitutional scholar, but that seems a reasonable principle. So even if improperly imposed tariffs are replaced by new proper ones (if that happens), it seems like the previous payments should be refunded. Do you agree? Or is this some sort of “finders keepers” situation where the government keeps the revenue it should not have collected in the first place?

Making those who bore the burden of the taxes whole is not necessarily an easy task, since costs were often passed on through the value chain. In economic terms, it is a difference between legal incidence of the tax (who wrote the check to the government) and economic incidence (who paid the ultimate cost). If you paid more for a car because of tariffs on steel, aluminum, or imported parts for it, or if you had your hours cut at a factory because of declining profits or sales due to higher costs, then you suffered the economic incidence. Don’t hold your breath waiting for a tariff refund check.

The problem is made more complicated by the vast sums involved. If the government is forced to issue bonds to borrow the refund money, the impact on interest rates and credit availability could be jaw-dropping. I expect the refunds, if there are any, will be tied up in court, too.

Who Really Paid the Tariffs?

Some of the people who favor the tariffs act as though they are a tax on foreign producers or governments, but in fact the tariffs are mainly collected from U.S. firms who then attempt to pass them on to clients and customers or bear them as higher costs. There is only a foreign burden if imposing the tax drives down world prices, spreading the impact abroad.

Last week the New York Federal Reserve Bank research department released a study that found that 90 percent of the tariff burden fell on domestic consumers in the form of higher prices and on domestic firms in the form of higher costs. This is actually a bit lower than previous studies that put the figure at 96 percent.

Much of the burden of the tariffs, however, takes the form of what didn’t happen, not what did, because taxes both raise price and reduce quantity exchanged. Thus a full accounting of the burden must include the lost utility of the final goods that were not imported because of the tariff costs and the lost value of U.S. exports that didn’t happen because imported parts and raw materials were too costly or not available. One reason that the inflation impact of the tariffs so far is so modest is that inflation only measures what did happen while much of the real burden is related to what didn’t happen.

So what’s not happening is important. That’s a real Waiting for Godot situation.

Tit for Tat

But we won’t really know the score until we see how foreign governments and consumers decide how to react to the evolving tariff situation. Checkers is one of the first board games that children learn to play and they quickly learn about tit for tat and the need to think several moves ahead. How will gains and losses be distributed when the dust finally settles?

So there is a long road ahead of us before we know what will happen about tariffs. I hope the insiders are right and that the Supreme Court will get the process started on February 20.

Until then I’ll be here … waiting for Godot.

Last week’s Wine Economist reported on an unexpected development in our local wine scene. Against all odds, interest in wine seems to be growing in our part of Tacoma, Washington. A number of new businesses have opened recently raising wine’s profile in the neighborhood. What’s going on?

We surveyed the situation last week and promised you a deeper dive. Here it is.

Metropolitan Market

Our story begins in 1990 when the Metropolitan Market opened on Proctor Street on a site that had been home to a variety of supermarkets over the years. It always had a wine aisle, but as the Met upped its game (and as supermarkets evolved in the U.S.), the wine wall changed with it. Here’s what I wrote about it in Chapter 3 of Wine Wars II.

The Metropolitan Market on Proctor Street in Tacoma, Washington, is a typical upscale American supermarket. It has all the upscale basics: a delicatessen and a fishmonger, fresh seasonal local produce, a coffee bar and gelato stand. You can buy cat food, corn flakes, and laundry soap at competitive prices. There is sushi, too, along with various panini, and espresso drinks that pair nicely with a proprietary chocolate chip snack called The Cookie. Or, for $6.99, you can take home a quarter of a 1.9 kilogram loaf of Polâine whole grain sourdough bread, flown in fresh from Paris every Wednesday. Eat it plain – it is delicious – or top with European butter and a swish of raw monofloral Manuka honey from New Zealand. You can find them all on the Met’s generous shelves.

The Metropolitan Market is the kind of store that is increasingly common in American cities, patronized by people like me, who take their culinary cues from celebrity chefs on the Food Network. It is to foodies what Home Depot is to the DIY set: an adult toy store where imaginations can run wild.

You probably have a store like the Met in your town and, since you are reading this book, you probably go there frequently so that you can check out the wine wall. I’d like you to go there now (or if that’s not convenient, to imagine that you are there) because this chapter requires your participation. I don’t really want to tell you what the wine world looks like, although that’s easy enough to do. I want you to see for yourself—and to be surprised.

I’m sending you to the supermarket because that’s where the battle for the future of wine is being waged. It isn’t the only battlefield; the idea of wine is contested wherever and whenever wine is bought and sold. Restaurants and bars. Wine shops and auction floors. Tasting rooms and cellar doors. Shoot, I’ve even bought wine in the middle of the night, directly from the maker, from the back of a pickup truck on a dark city street. (Don’t ask.)

But the supermarket is the central stage of this story and that’s where we need to begin. And to understand what’s going on there we will need to inspect it closely, looking for the key to its secret code.

Upscale supermarkets like the Met are about many things: service, selection, and maybe even opulence (The Met’s Cookie is certainly opulent). Significantly, they are also about identity, and wine fills an important niche, reinforcing and differentiating their identities and linking them to the lifestyles, both actual and aspirational, of their customers.

Maybe the most important thing about the Met over the years has been the people who make it happen. Patrick (aka  “the wine guy”) was, until his semi-retirement, a key element of the local wine culture. He was particularly important to us at The Wine Economist because of his knowledge of the wine business and trends. The Met helped raise the profile of wine in the neighborhood and establish it as part of the local culture.

Browne Family Vineyards Tasting Room

Precept Wine was rated as the 12th largest U.S. wine company by Wine Business Monthly earlier this year with an estimated 2.75 million cases sold per year. The company produces wine under many brands, but the current focus is on Browne Family Vineyards, Gruet, and House Wine according to the WBM report.

CEO Andrew Browne reports that his team was drawn to Tacoma and the Proctor District when they were planning tasting room locations. The Proctor Safeway and the Metropolitan Market had very strong wine programs and the neighborhood was both growing and developing a distinctive vibe. “We always viewed being near great retailers and bringing the ‘storytelling / nice setting / friendly people’ quality approach would lift all boats—a rising tide,” Browne says. “That is exactly the result we have seen in Tacoma.”

“When we opened in 2020, ‘jumpstarting’ the wine scene wasn’t on our radar,” comments Precept chief marketing officer Alexandra Evans. “Our goal was simpler: create a NYC-quality experience right in our backyard. Andrew had just moved to Tacoma—a place dear to many of our hearts—and we wanted to build a gathering spot where people could enjoy great local wine and feel at home. A place that genuinely brought value to our home community. Seeing the momentum build with more tasting rooms, wine bars, and shops has been thrilling.”

Like the Met Market, Browne Family Vineyards is all about investing in people, both the tasting room staff and the neighborhood. As Browne notes, “We believed in Tacoma’s potential—the food culture, the highly engaged community thirsty for quality experience, it was a safe bet. What our tasting room proved is that you don’t need to be in wine country to build wine culture. You just need to show up authentically and honor people’s choice to spend their hard-earned time and money with you. We feel deeply responsible for delivering on that promise!”

Sue and I like to meet friends and colleagues at Browne Family Vineyards. There is a feeling that is both comfortable and sophisticated. The wine flights are great conversation starters. And I like the fact that in Tacoma, the “City of Destiny,” you can order wine from a collection that proclaims “Do Epic Sh*t!” An inspiration. And an important step in the evolution of the neighborhood wine scene.

Corbeau Restaurant

Corbeau opened in the Proctor District a little more than a year ago and caught our attention by positioning itself  as a “Franco-Tacoman” restaurant, which translates to French cuisine and sensibility with local Tacoma-area ingredients. We intended to give it a try, but somehow something always came up. That changed recently when we looked at their wine program.

Corbeau is the creation of Tacoma native Trevor Hamilton, whose restaurant wine resume includes spells at Canlis in Seattle and The Table in Tacoma, and executive chef Craig Tronset, whose experiences include Bastille in Seattle and The Table in Tacoma.

Corbeau took over a spot that was the long-time home of an Italian-American restaurant and I suppose it has taken a while for people like us to find out what’s going on. What we’ve discovered in recent visits is a warm environment with friendly staff, excellent service, and food that is both distinctive and delicious. You can sense the personal touch at every turn.

On the beverage side, Corbeau is about wine but not just wine. The cocktail and mocktail menus are interesting and many of the tables we’ve seen have brightly colored drinks on display. But, of course, it was the wine that drew us in. The wine list is long but not encyclopedic, about 70 percent French, and includes a special list of bottles priced at less than $60. So it is serious about wine.

But Corbeau is also playful about wine and inviting. This becomes clear when you consider the by-the-glass page of the wine list. There are more than a dozen choices and they are presented in an unusual way (see above). The coded wine references are arrayed along two axes: delicate to powerful and natty to nice.

Natty? Well, low intervention (natural wine depending upon how you define that). The idea is a play on the Santa Claus “naughty and nice” idea. What this does, according to wine director Mason Pack, is start a conversation about what you are interested in trying and the many different faces that wine can present. It’s a different way to think about wine. What fun.

Our first visit (with friends Zari and Greg) focused on Natty and Nice wines paired with happy hour burgers, fries, and salad. But we soon returned, drawn by the arrival of a bottle of Pignolo, a red wine from Friuli that is so rare that it is almost invisible. 

Anatomy of a Renaissance

So how does a wine renaissance happen in  a world where news reports constantly reinforce the wine industry’s struggles? I can’t answer that question in general terms but I have a couple of ideas based on wine businesses covered last week and above in these Wine Economist columns.

The first observation is simple. It’s not about the wine. It’s about the people. Growing a wine culture or any culture has to start with people and their dreams and visions.

The second thing is that a renaissance doesn’t happen all at once. Change happens gradually and then suddenly as momentum builds. You can’t always be sure that a first step will be followed by others, but it is terrific when it works.

The thing that these businesses (and the others we wrote about last week) have in common is that they are different. Different from other businesses in some ways and different from each other. Wine isn’t a single thing. It is many things. This means that there are many ways for wine to connect to the community.

Our little neighborhood has developed a vibrant wine scene. Can it sustain its identity and maybe even continue to grow in the current unfavorable environment? Fingers crossed that wine’s light will grow brighter in the coming year.

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Thanks to everyone we talked to about the Proctor wine scene. We couldn’t really do justice to what’s happening in a short column like this, but we tried.

Thanksgiving Day is just around the corner, and planning has started here at Wine Economist World Headquarters. The menu will be traditional (for us) with a focus on the vegetable side dishes more than the roast bird. The real question is, what wines will be served? That’s plural wines because we stretch the feast over several days on the theory that leftovers are the best part.

Choosing wines is often a last-minute affair, and it is never simple (or uncomplicated) because you have to decide what to try to match. The turkey (maybe Pinot Noir)? The side dishes (a crisp white wine or maybe Cabernet Franc)? The festive mood (bubbles)? So many decisions!

But maybe this year’s Thanksgiving wine is hiding in plain sight. Sue has a small collection of older vintages of wines from The Eyrie Vineyards (gifts to her from winemaker Jason Lett). Any of those wines would elevate the holiday. Maybe Sue will open her Eyrie Pinot Meunier Estate. Wouldn’t that be a treat?

But it is too soon to tell what will happen and I am sure we will end up overthinking the wines again this year. I used to assume it was just us but a 2023 Wine Economist column on the problem (reprinted below) is especially popular during Canadian and U.S. Thanksgiving periods, so there must be many others trying to figure out what corks to pull. I hope this helps you navigate the holiday better than we do. Cheers!

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A Guide to Over-Thinking Thanksgiving Wine

The Wine Economist / November 14, 2023

Sue and I always give some thought to what wines to serve with our Thanksgiving feast and over the years I have reported on our deliberations here on The Wine Economist. Our thinking has evolved over the years. Although we are often “wine first” diners, who choose the wine first and then pick pairings that will complement, we’ve more or less decided that Thanksgiving should be an exception to our rule.

Thanksgiving isn’t really about wine, is it? And it is not actually about food, either, although a lot of attention is pointed in that direction. (I acknowledge that Thanksgiving is about football to some people, but that’s another story.) Thanksgiving is about the relationships that bring us together over the food and wine (and football, I guess). Honoring and deepening those relationships is the thing.

So it is important not to overthink Thanksgiving wine. Wine should make everything better, but it should not be the star. If all you can remember is that glass of wine, the holiday hasn’t fulfilled its potential.

So we pledge not to overthink Thanksgiving wine, but that doesn’t mean we can’t think about it at all. Here is a brief history of our experiments and how our thinking has evolved this year. In each case, we paired wines with a meal that evoked the spirit and flavors of Thanksgiving without cooking  a whole turkey each time.

Test #1 Joseph Phelps Freestone Sonoma Coast Pinot Noir.

We love Joseph Phelps Cabernet Sauvignon wines, but we hadn’t really explored the other varieties in their lineup, so jumped at this opportunity to test out this Sonoma Coast Pinot Noir. It was restrained, elegant, and deftly balanced. And it paired very well with the poultry (seasoned roast chicken) on our test plate. We have often served Pinot Noir at Thanksgiving and this would be a great choice.

But Sue started thinking (danger! danger!). The Pinot Noir was perfect with the bird, and that’s generally the centerpiece of Thanksgiving tables, but what about the side dishes? When you ask people what part of the Thanksgiving meal they could not do without, it usually isn’t the turkey that they name. It is always a traditional (or not-so-traditional) side dish. Maybe, Sue said, we should be focusing on the side dishes in our tests.

Test #2 Joseph Phelps Napa Valley Sauvignon Blanc.

White wine makes lots of sense for pairing with the classic Thanksgiving side dishes, many of which are rich and cry out for something with a little acidity. Sauvignon Blanc is the hottest white varietal wine at the moment and this Napa Valley was an excellent choice.

If you’ve grown accustomed to the stereotypical Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc style, the Joseph Phelps Sauvignon Blanc will come as a bit of a surprise. It is elegant and restrained (the Phelps house style at work?). It didn’t try to take over the show but did exactly the job we were looking for as an ensemble player.

Sauvignon Blanc is a great Thanksgiving choice, but it comes in so many styles that you’ll need to think about which one you choose (without over-thinking it, of course).  That Marlborough style might work depending on the side dishes, but it could be too dominant in some cases. Ditto with a heavily oaked fumé style. Think. But not too much. That’s really hard!

Test #3 Chateau Ste Michelle Indian Wells Yakima Valley Riesling.

Sue and I recently attended a German wine dinner at Ricardo’s Kitchen and Bar in Lacey, Washington and it was such a treat that we’ve been thinking a lot about Riesling wines. Those wines went so well with the robust German cuisine we were served that it makes sense that they would play well with Thanksgiving sides.

We chose the Indian Wells Yakima Valley Riesling from Chateau Ste Michelle. The Chateau is the world’s largest maker of Riesling wines and a lot of the focus is on the entry-level Columbia Valley Riesling, which is one of the great American wine bargains. There is a reason that you see it so often on restaurant by-the-glass lists. It over-delivers on flavor at a price point that works for both buyer and seller.

But there is a lot more to Ste Michelle Riesling than the entry wines, so we were interested in how the Indian Wells wine would work for our Thanksgiving test. The wine was elegant, restrained, and well-balanced. Sue said it would be an excellent role player with the holiday meal. I think it might be fun to try the entire Ste Michelle Riesling range throughout the long Thanksgiving weekend, from the entry-level Columbia Valley wine all the way through the iconic Eroica.

Side notes:  Glad to see winemaker David Rosenthal’s name on the front label because he made so much great white wine at the Chateau before moving to his current work with Partnership Wine Consulting. I am also happy to see that the wine lists the Yakima Valley appellation, which doesn’t always get the respect it deserves for the wonderful wines that are grown there.

Test #4 Zonin Orange-Cran Riviera Spritz.

I did not expect that our experiments would take us in this direction, but once I learned about Zonin’s Orange-Cranberry Riviera Spritz I could not resist. Orange-Cranberry. Those are real Thanksgiving flavors at our house. Sue makes a dynamite orange-cranberry sauce and its tart-sweet brightness really works alongside the savory roast vegetables and, of course, classic green bean casserole. How would those flavors work in a wine?

Sue was very suspicious of the Zonin spritz and accepted her glass reluctantly. I thought it might look and taste something like an Aperol spritz, but I was wrong. The color was bright rosy pink and the aromas and flavors very cranberry and orange, especially on the second day, with a pleasant orange leading the way. Very refreshing!  It would be a great sparkler to serve with Thanksgiving desserts and I think anyone would smile if you gave them a glass of this spritz as they walked through the door because they would know at once that they were going to have fun.

Sue declared herself a fan of the  Zonin Orange-Cranberry Spritz before that first glass was empty. What a surprise!

Thinking About Overthinking

Sue and I have learned a lot through these experiments, which will continue through the Thanksgiving weekend and beyond. Thinking about Thanksgiving wine in terms of the ensemble of flavors on your plate has merit, even if some combinations may work better than others.

Once she started thinking about wine and the side dishes, Sue quickly moved on to other questions. Pairing wines for particular guests? Maybe different wines for leftovers? Because leftovers (like turkey on rye with cream cheese and cranberry sauce) are the highlight for some of us. Next question: what wine to serve with turkey soup?

Wait! Are we starting to over-think this? Nah. That would never happen. So what do you think? Use the comments section to tell us what you are planning for Thanksgiving wine.

Sue and I are still searching for non-alcoholic wines that pass our “Second Glass Test.” We think that NA wines should remind us of the types of wines they are based on and be tasty enough that we would ask for a second glass. It doesn’t hurt if the NA wines are priced in the same range as their alcoholic cousins, but that’s not a strict requirement.

Mionetto’s NA Italian Sparkling wine is a good example of what we are looking for. Mionetto is a famous maker of Prosecco wines, so their NA wine (packaged in the same style but a different color than their Prosecco wines) needed to remind us of Prosecco and be good enough for a second glass. It passed the test and we even found it for about the same price as Mionetto Prosecco at Total Wine. You can read about some of our other NA wine experiences here.

Castello di Amorosa

We were excited when the folks at Castello di Amorosa offered us a sample of their NA wine, a non-alcoholic “Libero” Moscato from the Dennison Road Vineyard north of Boonville in the Anderson Valley. The Anderson Valley designation instantly made the idea of the wine appealing and a tasting sealed the deal. The wine reminded us of slightly fizzy Moscato for sure, but with better balance than a lot of Moscato wines we’ve tasted, and with enough acidity to nicely balance the 27 g/l residual sugar. Sue especially noted the rich mouth-feel, which is often absent in NA wines. The $27 retail price is not out of line for NA wines.

It looks and tastes like the folks at Castello di Amorosa take their NA wines seriously. With this in mind, we peered deeper into the Castello di Amorosa catalogue and zeroed in on their non-alcoholic winegrape juice. This isn’t wine that has had the alcohol removed. It is winegrape juice that has never been fermented at all. Significantly, I believe, this isn’t just leftover juice put in bottles for kids to enjoy at the tasting room. I think it is carefully and intentionally made for seriously pleasurable consumption.

Sue and I tried the Muscat Canelli grape juice first and were impressed with the balance and mouth-feel. It reminded us of a good Muscat and was a pleasure to drink. Who knew that winegrape juice could be so satisfying? I don’t think it is an accident. I sense a serious effort to harvest the grapes at the right moment for balanced juice, which would be very different time  from the sweet spot for making wine. The $14 retail price is good value compared to most NA wines.

The winery’s tasting note captures the character of the wine:

Tasting Notes: Delicate geranium petals, orange blossom, and honeysuckle aromas give way to vibrant flavors of ripe pear, sun-kissed mandarin, and crisp green apple, balancing sweetness with Fresh Acidity.

The grape juice was good, so we took the next step and made a spritz with ice, the juice, some mint, and tonic water. It was great, with the Muscat character still there. A great NA summer quencher that we would be happy to serve guests as we might do with white port spritz.

A Juicy Red Blend

We haven’t tried many NA red wines that passed the Second Glass test, so we were excited to try Castello di Amorosa’s non-alcoholic red blend sparkling grape juice. My AI intern scoured the winery’s website and reported that the blend is

•  90% Gamay – Known for its bright red fruit flavors and floral notes, often associated with Beaujolais wines.
•  5% Grenache – Adds a touch of spice and ripe berry character.
•  5% Cabernet Sauvignon – Contributes depth, structure, and a hint of tannic grip, even in juice form.

The juice is semi-sweet and well-balanced. That Beaujolais reference rings true. It was very pleasant to drink on its own and maybe even better as the base for a spritz. More juicy than winey. And we would welcome a second glass. Sue prefers the Muscat Canelli, but both are very good.

Finally, we sampled the Gewurtztraminer winegrape juice, which was Sue’s second favorite after the Moscato. It wasn’t as aromatic and floral as I was expecting. More delicate than the other juices. Balanced and tasty. Definitely worth a second glass.

Wine and Wine-ish

Winegrape juice obviously isn’t wine or even NA wine, so what should we call it? I am inspired by the drinks list at a wine-forward Portland, Oregon, restaurant, which has a category called “Wine-ish Things.” The Castello di Amorosa winegrape juices are indeed wine-ish. They look like wine, remind us of wine, drink like wine, and satisfy like wine. No alcohol is created and none is removed in the production of these juicy treats.

So what is the bottom line? First we commend Castello di Amorosa for their Anderson Valley Libero Moscato, which is one of the best NA wines we have tested. It shows what can be done when NA wine is taken seriously.

Second, we were impressed with the grape juice experiments, which also seemed to benefit from serious efforts to make juice to appeal to wine drinkers. The juices were actually more satisfying than many of the NA wines we have tried. Maybe we need to pay more attention to winegrape juice and other variations on the wine-ish theme.

Stereotypes are powerful things because they shape the way we perceive reality even when we know they differ from what we see with our own eyes. That was the message of Saul Steinberg’s famous 1976 New Yorker magazine cover, “The View of the World from 9th Avenue.” It is important to have occasional attitude checks to make sure that stereotypes and prejudices haven’t seized control.

It is pretty easy to stereotype California wines. The Saul Steinburg picture (you might call it “The View from Highway 29”) would feature Napa Valley up front and in detail. And you know what the wines would be: bottles of big, bold Cabernet Sauvignon. Sonoma would be visible in the middle distance, but most of the other wine regions and most of their wines would pretty much disappear except for a few famous landmarks, the way that the rest of America disappears in the 9th Avenue view.

Steinberg’s image suggests that New Yorkers of his day didn’t understand America and probably didn’t understand New York, either. That’s how stereotypes work. The same rule holds for California and wine. So here are two California wineries that break the imaginary mold. What do they have in common? High elevation is one factor, but not the only one. We hope their stories will encourage us all to rethink the shorthand stereotypes we assign to California wines and to wines from everywhere else, too.

Mt. Veeder Renaissance: Sky Vineyards

If you’ve visited Napa Valley more than once there is a good chance you’ve driven up one of the winding roads on Mt. Veeder, probably to visit the historic Hess Collection winery (a top Napa tourist destination). You know that it is rugged territory and not the most obvious place to plant grapevines. The best locations are high enough up the mountainside to be above the fog line. Although it is the largest Napa sub-AVA by total area, the vineyard acreage and wine production numbers are small.

It is almost a miracle that someone could look at this region back in the 1970s (early days in modern Napa history) and imagine vineyards and a winery, but that’s what happened at Sky Vineyards, specializing in dry-framed Zinfandel and Syrah. It was an even bigger miracle that that vision survived the 2017 wildfires. But the Olds family rebuilt their home, replanted vineyards, and resolved to come back both stronger and also different (with Grenache, Riesling, and Chenin Blanc as well as signature Zinfandel).

We were fortunate to be able to sample both the new from Sky Vineyards (their 2022 Riesling) and the old (the Zinfandel from that 2017 vintage).  Sue was surprised and impressed by the Riesling. This is the pure essence of Riesling, she said. A wonderful treat. But the Zinfandel was even better. So bright and complex and full of life. It was one of the most memorable wines we tasted in 2024.

A miracle that a wine like this could come from the vintage of the dreadful wildfires. The image of a phoenix rising from the ashes is a cliché, I know, but it really does seem to apply to Sky Vineyards and its wines.

Sky Vineyards shatters the stereotype you might have of Napa Valley and its wines. The view from Mt. Veeder looks a lot different than that Highway 29 perspective you might know best.

Lake County Surprise: Brassfield Estate

Lake County is a bit of a puzzle. Winegrowing is important, but the area might be better known to many for Clear Lake and its recreational appeal. You can find Clear Lake AVA on wine labels if you look closely, but a lot of the grapes disappear into California appellation blends. Quantity was the path to profits for many years simply because grape prices were low. Now it seems that rising quality is key. But it is hard to establish a reputation when you have famous wine neighbors such as Napa and Sonoma a short distance away.

Brassfield Estate winery is located in the High Valley AVA, a  Lake County sub-appellation. High elevation and volcanic soils define the region, producing wines of power and elegance that demand close attention. The Cabernet Sauvignon, a multi-vineyard blend, was deep and complex and a terrific value, too.

The star of the tasting was the Brassfield Estate Pinot Noir, which came as a complete surprise to us. The winery describes the terroir this way:

These grapes are sourced from four vineyard blocks nestled within a westward-facing box canyon. Strategically positioned beneath a saddle in the ridge, the descent of cool coastal air from the west makes this the coolest vineyard site in High Valley. This vineyard thrives on soil formed from ancient lakeshore and alluvial deposits.

The wine tasted of rhubarb and pomegranate, with the balance of fruit and acidity that the description suggests. It wasn’t a Sonoma Pinot Noir and it wasn’t a Willamette Valley Pinot either. It was itself. That’s what we are always looking for. What a nice surprise to find it and in Lake County, of all places.

The Sky Vineyards and Brassfield Estate wines we tasted forced us to rethink stereotypes, which is always a good thing. If you think of Napa as the California standard, for example, Brassfield Estate will make you realize that wines of high quality can come from other parts of the state (and be purchased for much more affordable prices). And Sky Vineyards will make you question what you even mean by a Napa wine.

There’s a lot of research left to do if you want to shatter the stereotypes of California wine. Get started now!

The International Organization of Wine & Vine (OIV) is  celebrating its 100th year in 2024. I like to think of the OIV as the United Nations of the wine world although its purpose is scientific and technical, not political. Membership includes most of the world’s most important wine-producing nations with the noteworthy exception of the United States.

To mark its first one hundred years, the OIV  released a report last week on 100 years of evolution of the global wine and vine sector. The report’s perspective differs from most studies in that it is both global and long-term. I have selected three figures from the report that I think are useful to consider as the new wine year begins and we think about where wine is headed in the future.

#1 The Rise of the International Wine Trade

Wine was mainly multi-local (not really global) 100 years ago. Most French wine was sold in France. Ditto Spain, Italy, and most other places. Only about 10% of wine crossed a national border on its way from producer to consumer.

Now, as the figure above shows, international trade is a much more important factor in wine. Trade is even more significant than the figure above suggests because these are just shipments of wine. The international movements of equipment and supplies, workers (including flying winemakers and flying interns), and technology add to the global web that is wine today.

The surge in international wine trade started in the 1970s and was accelerated by the combined effects of trade agreements that removed political barriers to wine shipments, transportation technology improvements that made shipping more efficient, and domestic retail liberalization in many markets that stimulated demand for imported wine.

But, as you will see in the next section, there was another and perhaps more important reason for the rise of the international wine trade. As domestic wine consumption fell in many countries, exports became a crucial business strategy. Soon big wine countries like Spain were exporting more than they sold at home.

#2 1984 and All That

Global wine consumption increased starting in the 1950s powered by Europe’s rising post-war economies. But global consumption, measured by volume not value, peaked about 40 years ago. European wine sales fell and were not entirely offset by rising consumption in North America and elsewhere.

There are a number of factors that contributed to the slump in European wine sales. One of them is surely an economic transition where consumers substituted quality for quality as their economic security improved. Health issues may also have become more important. The levels of per capita wine consumption in some European regions 100 years ago were unsustainable by today’s standards.

Rising ROW (rest-of-world) wine consumption offset European decline, but only for a time.

#3 Supply-Side Jitters

It is hard to know exactly what is going on with wine production in real time because cyclical and structural changes tend to happen at the same time, frequently punctuated by wild card events such as freak weather. Looking back, however, this accounts for the jittery pattern seen in the figure above.

It is clear that global wine production by volume actually peaked in 1979. (Global area given to vineyards for all purposes peaked in 1978.) Wine production has its ups and downs, but the overall trend is to lower quantities of wine, albeit at rising average prices. The decrease was especially significant in Europe. Rising production elsewhere is not enough to make up the difference.

Rise and Fall

The OIV report makes fascinating reading with more detail than I have room for here (click here to view the pdf of the presentation).

The overall pattern of rise and fall invites the obvious questions: What about the future? Is wine headed toward further decline? Or is an up-swing around the corner?

The OIV report’s conclusions balance optimisism with realism:

Change is a constant
The wine sector is highly resilient
Science and learning make a huge difference
Production and consumption are in constant evolution
The impacts of climate change are accumulating
International trade is integral to the sector
The wine sector is a long-term sector

It is hard to sum up 100 years of wine industry history in a few words, but I think the OIV has done a good job. Wine and the wine business have always changed and evolved and always will do so. A long-term perspective is needed to successfully navigate the shifting currents.

Maybe this isn’t the detailed recipe for future success that you were hoping to find, but it seems like good advice to me.

Over in Beer World, the NA (non-alcoholic) category is booming. Sales by market leader Athletic Brewing Company continue to grow while more and more other brands introduce NA products. There is a lot of interest in NA here in Wine World, too. The most-read single Wine Economist article of this year so far is an essay on “Non-Alcoholic Wine and the Second-Glass Test.”  However, NA wine remains a niche product compared to NA beer.

More of the Wine World focus is on LA (low-alcohol) wine, which is promoted variously as “light,” low-calorie, “better for you,” and so on. Many new products have been launched to take advantage of interest in LA wines. Some producers seem to think this is a new category, and it may well be to some consumers.

Everything Old is New Again?

We recently received a story pitch for a brand that seemed to think it invented the idea of LA wine. That rubbed the wrong way because low-alcohol wine has a very long history. German Rieslings, for example, have long featured their moderate alcohol (they might have been the first “session” wines). Stella Rosa wines, which have alcohol levels so low that they have to include nutritional data on the labels in addition to the usual alcohol warnings, are very popular and widely distributed. Riunite Lambrusco, once the most popular imported wine in the U.S., is low-alcohol, too.

The wines from Asti — still Moscato d’Asti DOCG  and sparkling Asti DOCG (aka Asti Spumante) — must be included on the list of OG LA wines here in the U.S. market and around the world, too. The abv for Moscato d’Asti DOCG hovers around 4.5 percent, considerably lower than most white wines, and Asti DOCG is a bit higher but still relatively low at 7.5 percent. Residual sugar levels are higher because the wines are not fermented dry, of course, but the best of these highly aromatic wines achieve good balance with higher acidity, although I admit I have sampled a few over the years that were unbalanced on the sweet side for my taste.

The Asti Consortium sent us a sample of each wine and they represented the region very well. Bava Bass Tuba Moscato d’Asti DOCG and Gancia Asti Spumante DOCG  were well-balanced and delicious. We sipped the Gancia Asti sparkler as an aperitif on a warm summer day and the Bava Bass Tuba Moscato d’Asti paired very well with a fresh fruit dessert. We tried  Moscato d’Asti DOCG along with some other wines paired with chocolate last year and were surprised by how well they worked with Chocolate Moonshine French Vanilla Fudge.

Global Interest in OG LA

Who drinks the LA wines of the Asti region? Judging by the ready availability of the wines, I would say that the market is quite large here in the United States. Costco regularly features its own Kirkland Signature brand of Moscato d’Asti, for example, in addition to other labels of this wine.

I asked the Asti Consortium for sales data and the results surprised me a bit. The pie chart above shows 2023 sales for sparkling Asti DOCG. Most is sold in Italy and the rest of Europe but the Russian market is very large, which makes sense because sparkling and sweeter wines are very popular there. In fact, 2023 might have been a particularly good year for Russian sales. The Economist reports that Russian government stimulus helped spending on imported sparkling wine increase by 80 percent that year!  The Americas and Asia take their share of the Asti DOCG pie, tool.

The sales pattern is very different for still Moscato d’Asti DOCG. The U.S. market is by far the most important followed by Italy, Greece, South Korea, and Switzerland. No wonder these wines are so easy to find on U.S. store shelves. U.S. consumers drink about two of every three bottles sold in the world! Amazing.

The sudden surge in attention given to LA wine may be new, but consumers have been enjoying LA wine for a long time. There are lots of new brands and concepts, that’s for sure, but the OG LA wines like Moscato d’Asti DOCG and Asti DOCG endure for a reason.

About half the hands in the room shot skywards and I was surprised.

I was at the License to Steal national wine marketing workshop that took place alongside the Eastern Winery Expo in Syracuse, New York, last month and the topic was artificial intelligence (AI). We had just seen a presentation about the role of AI in the wine business and Donniella Winchell was leading the follow-up discussion.

How many people were already using AI to help them create content for marketing, social media, and other purposes? The answer was a lot and everyone was interested in learning more.

AI and Productivity Gains

Most of America’s wine is produced by a few very large companies but most of America’s wineries are much smaller and can only dream of the sort of division-of-labor efficiencies that Gallo or Constellation enjoy. Smaller wineries with smaller staffs need all the help they can get to do all the jobs that need to be done.

It is still early days in what promises to be an AI revolution of business practices generally, but the License to Steal workshop showed clearly that there is much interest in increasing productivity in wine business with AI help.

Where is AI headed in the wine industry? AI help with first drafts of sales materials and tasting notes is a beginning, but there is potential for much more. If you want to see where artificial intelligence might go in wine, set your GPS for Moldova.

Moldova’s AI Wine Initiative

Moldova is a small country with a big wine industry and a cutting-edge tech sector, too. If you mix the two together, you get the first vintage of AI wines, which were introduced to the world at this year’s ProWein trade show (click on the image above to watch a brief video of the event).

Diana Lazar and her AI wine team used artifical inelligence applications to make decisions from vineyard to cellar to label design for a Feteasca Neagra red wine and a white blend of Feteasca Alba, Feteasca Regala, and Viorica. Robert Joseph led a ProWein seminar where the AI wines were tasted blind alongside similar conventional products from Moldova.

In a sort of “Judgement of Dusseldorf” poll, a majority of the tasters voted for the AI wines, which I don’t necessarily take as evidence that AI programs make better wines than people, but that people using AI advice can make very good wine.

This Changes Everything?

Although some like to think that making wine is as simple as just letting nature take its course, in fact producing fine wine is a complicated problem-solving process. It is not ridiculous to think that AI programs can be useful in identifying key choices and, in some cases, actually making them. The Moldova initiative shows that AI-directed winemaking can produce impressive results.

Although the popular focus today is on general purpose AI programs like ChatGPT, which are still prone to factual errors and “hallucinations,” I suspect the productive future lies in specialized AI programs specifically trained in complex technical areas such engineering, medicine, and precision agriculture.

So what’s the future of AI in winemaking? Too soon to tell. A few years ago blockchain technology was a hot topic and there were predictions that it would be used in all sorts of ways in the wine industry. Blockchain is being used for sure, but not yet to the extreme extent some people foresaw.

Will AI be the same? There sure is a lot of interest, as I saw at License to Steal, and the list of potential uses is broad. AI is another tool and if it is used creatively and responsibly it has great potential to increase productivity throughout the wine production chain. Let’s see what happens now!

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I will be giving a brief video presentation on April 5 for “Market Growth and Strategic Insights: Wine Industry Conference 2024” organized by the Moldova National Wine and Vine Office.