This is a year of celebrations here in the United States. This week, for example, we mark the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Wine enthusiasts have reason to pop a cork, too, because 2026 is the 50th anniversary of the “Judgment of Paris,” the famous wine tasting that drew global attention to the high quality of California wine.
Have you ever wondered how things would be different today if the Declaration had not been agreed upon back in 1776? How would history have unfolded if Britain’s American colonies didn’t break away? It’s an interesting question. Counter-factuals like this give us a chance to appreciate how the past has shaped the present and how events today might be transforming the future, too. It’s the Back to the Future effect.
Here is a Wine Economist column from 2022 that tries to imagine the present if the Judgment of Paris didn’t happen (or if it happened and didn’t get much attention, as is often the case with wine tasting events). Something to think about over the Independence Day weekend. Cheers!
P.S. Be sure to click on the video below to see what Napa and its wine industry looked like 50 years ago. Amazing!
The Judgment of Paris and Napa Valley’s Road Not Taken
The Wine Economist / September 13, 2022
A journalist recently asked me to comment on the impact of the famous 1976 “Judgment of Paris” tasting of California and French wines. The California wines were very competitive, according to the scores given by the panel of French judges, and wines from the Napa Valley actually topped both the Cabernet and Chardonnay lists. Amazing.
Time magazine reporter George M. Taber was the only journalist in attendance and his exclusive story about the unexpected American victory was a shot heard round the world. His 2005 book, Judgment of Paris is worth reading and even re-reading today.
What if … ?
Would Napa Valley have grown and developed if the Judgment of Paris had not taken place? Well, yes, I answered, there was already a good deal of momentum stimulated by, among other things, the successful opening in 1966 of the Robert Mondavi Winery, the first major new winery in the valley since Prohibition.
In fact, local residents were already concerned about the masses of wine tourists clogging local roads and highways and over-whelming winery facilities back in 1972 when a KPIX Eyewitness News reporter paid a visit to see what was happening. Click here or on the image below to watch the vintage video report.
And there was already international attention, too. Domaine Chandon, the Yountville outpost of the famous French Champagne house Môet Chandon, opened in 1973, three years before the famous Paris tasting.
On the Road Again
So the Napa Valley was already on the road to big things even before the Paris tasting. But just about everyone agrees that the international recognition changed things.
It changed things for Napa and for California, but the impact didn’t stop there. Towards the end of his book, George Taber takes a bit of a global tour, showing us how the world of wine broadened as the result of a number of forces including, of course, the new perspective on New World wine that the 1976 tasting provoked.
Second Thoughts?
Revisiting the Napa Valley years after the Paris tasting, to gather insights for his 2005 book, Taber could see the result of the intense focus that his astute reporting helped create. There was growth, for sure, and lots of new investment, both domestic and by a long list of international wine luminaries including, of course, the Rothschilds who partnered with Robert Mondavi in 1978, just two years after the Judgment, to build Opus One.
Taber was concerned about how the boom was unfolding. Enormous wealth, vanity vineyards, trophy wines. “The Napa Valley unfortunately became another proof of the maxim that nothing succeeds like excess.” And a good indicator of excess, he proposed, was the price of vineyard land. Warren Winiarski paid about $2000 per acre in 1970 for the first Stag’s Leap vineyard, Taber reported. In 1999 the owner of Far Niente winery paid $100,000 an acre for a 42-acres vineyard, which seemed like a lot. Francis Ford Coppola raised the stakes just a few years later, paying $300,000 an acre, a jaw-dropping price at the time.
Now, of course, $300,000 an acre for Napa Valley vineyards is not noteworthy or exceptional. $300,000 to $500,000 per vineyard acre (adjusting for the value of any production or housing assets) seems to be the norm, with some particular parcels going for even more. The excess that Taber saw 20 years ago has not diminished.
Money, Taste, and Wine
Naturally this is reflected in the wine. Not all of it, of course, but it is easy to see a pattern. The focus in Napa is increasingly on its signature grape variety, Cabernet Sauvignon. I am sure this is about taste — the best Napa Cabs I’ve tried are really good — but it is also about money, I think.
Cabernet is the grape of Bordeaux, too, and some people are happy to pay much more for Cabernet than they would for Zinfandel, which was once widely grown in the valley but now not-so-much. Sky-high land prices require high grape prices which mean high bottle prices for the wine. King Cabernet is the surest bet, many believe, and so it increasingly carpets the valley floor.
Many of the wines are really distinctive — Sue and I have tasted some real stunners! — but some of them taste the same to my amateur palate. I call them Napa Valley Red Wine. Maybe this is true of all wine regions, even the great ones? In Napa they often sell for more than $100 a bottle and seem to satisfy the thirst of buyers looking for the taste of Napa.
They Think I’m Bragging
I am not the only one who is concerned about how the wines of Napa Valley have changed and how the flood of tourist dollars and investor wealth has led to excess. But whenever I bemoan certain aspects of the Napa wine industry environment to international audiences, they think that I am just bragging. All those tourists and fancy restaurants! All the celebrities and trophy wines! Such economic success and pure opulence!
Napa Valley is a dream to international wine visitors, and for foreign winery owners who long for their own Napa moment, their own Judgment of Paris. Who can blame them?
But what if the Judgment never happened? If you know the story, you can appreciate that it could easily not have taken place (of the results could have turned out differently). Napa Valley would still have grown the thrived, I think, but it would be different today. What might it look like? Come back next week to see what might have been … and is.
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Thanks to Tony Correia for his help nailing down vineyard valuations. Thanks to Silicon Valley Bank’s Rob McMillan for his help locating the KPIX video, which was originally featured in a very memorable post on Rob’s blog.

Breganze and Bibbona. Cabernet Sauvignon and Cabernet Franc. These are not necessarily the first things that come to mind when you think about wines from Italy. But, to paraphrase Walt Whitman, Italian wine is large; it contains multitudes. Embrace stereotypes at your peril.
What types of wine do you think of when you think of Tuscany and the Veneto? Sangiovese-based wines are the Tuscan stereotype and you might imagine Amarone, for example, if you think of Veneto red wines. It would seem that, if you want to honor local terroir, you would necessarily reach for those well-known grape varieties.
The opening scene of season eight episode one of the insanely popular Netflix series
Sue and I recently hosted a Georgia-inspired dinner for friends who have a particular love for and appreciation of these wines. We tasted three wines. We started with a
I have been busy getting ready for next week’s 

GLOBAL GROWTH SQUEEZE
And finally I suggest for your consideration Boulding’s Law, named for Kenneth Boulding, the great economist. Boulding once conducted a study of the history of the future — he looked back in history to see what people thought would happen in the future and then he fast forwarded to find out if they were right.
Emily Stimpson Chapman,
Andrea Reibel,
Sake isn’t wine. It isn’t rice wine either, although I have heard it explained that way. Sake is Sake.
We’d like to finish with an exercise in compare and contrast involving the smallest winery we visited
The Gonzalez Byass campus, Bodega Tio Pepe, sits prominently on a hill, next door to the cathedral and just below the Alcázar de Jerez de la Frontera and Mezquita. Production is spread over a number of big buildings and there are tourist and hospitality facilities along with the Hotel Bodega Tio Pepe, where Sue and I stayed.
Sue and I recently spent more than two weeks in Andalusia, Spain, about half of the time exploring the wine scene and the other half enjoying the region’s history and culture.
Our first stop was 
It wasn’t hard to convince us to visit
Sue and I recently returned from three weeks in Spain. We spent a few days in Madrid (where we dropped in at FEV General Assembly meetings), but most of the time in Andalusia, home of Sherry and Montilla-Moriles wines. Great wines, good food, and welcoming people. We soaked up a lot of information (and wine, too).
We usually taste wines with trade groups, not “civilian” consumers, so we were very interested to see what would happen when we accompanied a typical tour group to Bodegas Alvear. We first tasted a light, fruity unfortified white wine and then three of the traditional wines: Fino, Olorosso, and Pedro Ximenez. At the end of the tasting the question was asked: Which ones do you like? All hands went up for the fruity white. Only a few hands were raised for Fino and Olorosso with a few more for the PX.
Sherry is not one specific wine. Many styles, many aging regimes: Fino, Amontillado, Manzanilla, Oloroso, Palo Cortado, Pedro Ximénez. Cream sherry (made sweet by the addition of rectified grape must or, even better, sweet PX wine) is what people think Sherry is, but isn’t. Lucious PX is sweet but balanced. One of the most memorable tastes of the trip was at a Taberna la Montillana in Córdoba where we were served a Bodegas Toro Alba Don PX 1955 at the end of the meal. Amazing.