Big & Hot Wine: Cab Boom, Napa Bubble, Think Pink, Back to the Future?

Last week’s Wine Economist column featured a very basic “Big and Hot” analysis of recent U.S. wine market data, focusing on which parts of the market are the most interesting in terms of “big” total expenditures versus the fastest growing “hot” categories. (If you haven’t read the first column, click here to check it out.)

This week I invite you to give some thought to the implications of that information. Here are a few observations to get you started.

Cabernet Boom, Napa Bubble?hqdefault

Cabernet Sauvignon is both Big and Hot these days. Cab will soon eclipse Chardonnay as the best-selling varietal wine in the U.S. market.

When you combine this fact with the general up-market trend, where the fastest growing parts of the wine market are in the super-premium and luxury segments, it is easy to understand how and why the California wine industry is being transformed by a movement toward quality, with Cabernet Sauvignon in the lead.

The Cab Boom is at its fiercest in the Napa Valley, where sky-high grape prices translate into stratospheric land prices. According to the most recent Allied Grape Growers newsletter (see pdf here),  The average price of Cab grapes in the Napa district was over $6800 a ton. And that’s just the average. The best grapes? If you have to ask how much they cost, you probably can’t afford them.

Cabernet seems to be good as gold generally, especially in Napa.

samuelson

Fool’s Gold?

Or is it fool’s gold? In particular, is the Cab-driven Napa vineyard value boom sustainable or is it a bubble that will someday burst? I think the possibility must be considered.

Agricultural markets in general are subject to what my Econ 101 professor called a “cobweb” model of price dynamics, where today’s high price leads to over-investment, which causes next year’s collapse, which leads to under-production, which brings on a future price spike and so on.

You can see the cobweb graph in this photo of Nobel Prize economist Paul Samuelson. Some cobwebs converge to an equilibrium. Some, like the one that Samuelson drew here, explode.

Wine is different from the standard agricultural commodity that was the inspiration for the cobweb model. Its longer production cycle actually makes the potential for price swings worse than for corn or wheat.

Maybe the current boom isn’t a bubble and I am just doing that Chicken Little thing that I sometimes do.  But it seems to me that you have to take the possibility of a bubble seriously unless you have a very good answer (which I do not yet have) to the question, what exactly makes this time different? 

Rise of the Red Blends

The rise of the red blends, which I discussed last week, is an interesting trend that has persisted long enough to be taken seriously. I admit that I have changed my opinion about red blends over time. Initially I saw Hot red blends as a response to Cold market conditions for Merlot and Syrah/Shriaz. Merlot fell out of favor after Sideways and negative reaction to simple Aussie Shiraz wines somehow turned contagious, infecting Syrah generally.

Consumers, it seemed, didn’t want to buy Merlot and Syrah. But they actually liked to drink them! So surplus Merlot and Syrah, plus a few other varietals, were mixed into market friendly Red Blend. Voilà!  You can be a Merlot or Syrah snob and enjoy drinking it, too. What could be better?

Back to the Future?

But then red blends seemed to change, with different grape varieties in the mix, and attention turned to the surge in sweet red blend wines. The focus was on what the higher residual sugar said about the changing wine market generally.

Now I’m more interested in the fact that many of the most popular red blends are intentional creations aimed specifically at the Hot super-premium market segment. Some of the common characteristics of these wines are that they have strong brand identities that are not linked to particular wine-growing regions (hence California appellation) or specific grape varietal (proprietary blends).

The flexibility that this affords the makers of these wines is very useful as they can alter the blend within reason both in terms of grape varieties and grape source depending upon demand scale and supply conditions.  Customers are buying the brand, not the particular recipe.

In a way these two parts of the red blend phenomenon (sweeter wines and stronger focus on brands over regions or varieties) strike me as a “Back to the Future” trend, a throwback to the 60s and 70s, especially since some of the largest wine producers are responsible for many of the new successful brands that have emerged.  What’s different is that we have moved up dramatically on the price ladder.

Is this the end of varietal wines? No, but it is a reorganization of the market. Varietals were seen to be a step up over generic jug wines. Now some of the proprietary blends are positioning themselves above the varietals. Interesting!

Think Pink

The recent popularity of Rosé wine caught most observers (including me) off guard. Why should pink wines (and even relatively expensive pink wines) suddenly be in fashion? A new documentary is about to be released called “La Révolution du Rosé” — can’t wait to see how the Rosé rise is explained in this timely film.

Is Rosé a thing? The biggest skeptics I have met have been the European wine producers who, ironically, have the most to gain from this trend since they have a lot of good pink wines to sell. They have been burned before and hesitate to make big investments until they are convinced that pink wines is not just another short-term fad.

I have heard many theories about the Pink explosion. Here’s one that’s inspired by last week’s Big and Hot analysis. The Red Blend boom seems to be real. What about the White Blend boom? Well, it didn’t happen. Personally, there are many white wine blends that I love, but there has been no real movement in white wine blends to mirror the changes in red wine blends. Unless, that is, you Think Pink.

Rosé wines have a lot in common with the red blends.  They can be and are made from many different wine grape varieties and are sourced from dozens of countries and regions. Some consumers may be nerdy about which grapes, which regions, and (especially) which particular shade of pink they like best. But many more consumers are open to all sorts of possibilities, judging the wines on their qualities more than pedigree.mateus

Sue and I have been on a bit of a Pink wine binge recently drinking pink Cinsault from Lebanon, pink Cabernet Sauvignon from South Africa, and a variety of different pink blends from various regions in the South of France. They were all delicious and refreshing.

Pink wines are often dry, but they can sometimes be sweeter, too, which fits well with the Red Blend comparison. Maybe we are missing the white wine boom because we haven’t learned how to Think Pink?

So are Pink wines the Next Big Thing. No … but I only say that so that I can finish this column on another Back to the Future note. Pink wine is actually an old thing that has come full circle here in the United States. Don’t forget that one of America’s all-time top-selling Big and Hot imported wines was Proudly Pink.

Can you name it? Yes, I am talking about Mateus Rosé! Think Pink!

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New “Wine by Numbers” + Analysis of Global & US Wine Market Dynamics

 

wbnA new edition of Wine by Numbers was released a few days ago and it is required reading for anyone interested in global wine market dynamics. Wine by Numbers presents current data about global wine exports, imports and patterns of trade. It is a free resource provided by the Unione Italiani Vini, the Italian wine association.

Who Buys? Who Sells?

This special edition provides more data and deeper analysis, including essays by leading figures in the Italian wine industry about some of the most important export and import markets. Carlo Flamini of the Corriere Vinicola, which publishes Wine by Numbers, asked me to write an introductory essay for the “Who Buys” issue.

My essay presents a “Big and Hot” analysis of global wine market dynamics based upon the Wine by Numbers data. I invite you to download the pdf and check it out along with the rest of this valuable publication.

Writing the Wine by Numbers essay got me to thinking that it might be time to update my “Big and Hot” analysis of the U.S. market, so today’s column is part of an occasional series here at the Wine Economist where we analyze recent U.S. retail sales data looking for interesting and important trends. The data this week comes from Nielsen reports on U.S. off-premise table wine sales for the 52 weeks ending on April 22, 2017 as reported in the July 2017 issue of Wine Business Monthly.

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Here’s how “Big & Hot” analysis works. The idea is to look at which parts of the market are big (in terms of total sales) and which are hot (or not) based upon rates of growth, both over the 52 week period and in the most recent 4 weeks covered by the data.

Sometimes as we see below, big and hot are the same, but sometimes they are very different. There is often something to be learned in either case.

Big and Hot Price Points

The overall U.S. off-premise market for table wines as measured by Nielsen grew by 3.5 percent in the 52 weeks of this study, but grew at a faster 6.1 rate in the final four weeks, showing some welcome acceleration that might be related to  Easter and Passover holiday wine sales.

This growth was not distributed uniformly over all price segments. This WBM Nielsen report aggregates price data by three dollar increments ($0-$2.99, $3-$5.99, etc.) up to $14.99 and then $15-$19.99 and $20 and above. The Big price segment measured by total expenditure is $3-$5.99 followed by $9-$11.99. The data suggest that the market is increasingly bifurcated  — the $6-$8.99 price segment between the two Bigs is actually shrinking. A tale of two markets?

Value wines are still Big and probably always will be, but they are not especially Hot. The fastest growing price segment is $15-$19.99, where total expenditures increased by more than 10 percent for the 52 week period. Wines priced $20 and above were “Hot Hot.” Sales shot up by 17.6% in the final four weeks of the reporting period. Amazing!

Big and Hot Imports

The Nielsen retail data reported here show that domestic table wines account for about 72 percent of total off-premise sales. Imports are somewhat stronger in restaurants and in the sparkling wine category, too, and if these sales were included the split would be more like 70% domestic and 30% import.

Italy is far and away the largest import wine source in these data (and growing faster than the overall market)  followed by Australia, New Zealand, and Argentina. France, which is only #5 by total sales, leads the hot parade, however, with 15% growth for the year and more than 25% 4-week growth. New Zealand, which normally is top of the Hot table, grew almost as fast followed by up-and-coming Portugal.

While Australian sales were essentially flat (an improvement over their dismal performance in recent years), Argentina, Chile, Germany, and South Africa had falling import sales in the Nielsen data.

Big and Hot Varietals

Conventional wisdom has it that American consumer reach for wine based upon brand, price, and grape variety. Chardonnay is the Big grape variety, accounting for 18% of all wine sales in the Nielsen table. Growth in Chardonnay sales rose slightly less than the overall market in this period. Cabernet Sauvignon, however, is only a little behind Chardonnay after a Hot surge and will soon take over the top place.

Sauvignon Blanc is the hottest grape variety, with 10.8% growth. Pinot Noir and Pinot Gris/Grigio are also growing while many varietal wine types (Merlot, Syrah/Shiraz, Malbec, Riesling, Zinfandel) have flat or falling sales.

Where is the growth going if not to these classic varietal wines? Look to the next category, which I call the Wild Card wines.

Big and Hot: The Wild Cards144318l

The Hottest categories in today’s market are those wines that defy the conventional wisdom. Consumers are supposed to be drawn to the security of varietal wines, so it is a bit of a surprise that the “Red Blend” category is so Hot, growing at more than twice the rate of the overall market during these 52 weeks. “Sweet Red Blends” are even Hotter, with sales rise at more than triple the overall market growth rate.

The conventional wisdom also holds that pink wines are a pretty narrow category and that is true in part. Sales of White Zinfandel, once a really Hot pink wine ticket, fell by 5% in this period.

So the Rosé wine boom comes as a bit of surprise. Sales of  Rosé table wine selling at $8 and above per 750ml rose at a startling 61.7% for the year and 84.2% for the final four weeks of the survey period.

That last number (84.2%) is especially interesting and not just because it is so big. Remember that these Nielsen data cover the period that ended on April 22, 2017, so the final 4-week period included parts of March and April.  Rosé wine was long thought to be “summer wine,” but these surging sales came in early Spring. Maybe Rosé is a Thing now, and not just a summer Thing?

Economists like numbers like these, but what’s the story behind them? Come back next week and I will try to tease out some broader implications.

The Next New Zealand? Reflections on Cyprus Wine Industry in Transition

pafos“Cyprus wines? Not really sure I have ever had one. Do they make much wine in Cyprus?”

Many readers of this column would probably say something similar when asked about Cyprus wine, but the person I was talking to was a bit different.

I spotted him on the Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt to Seattle and remembered that he sat in front of me on the earlier Larnaca-Frankfurt leg. He did business in Cyprus and traveled there a lot, he told me. Drank wine there, too. But Cyprus wine? Not so much.

Mostly he drank the less expensive import wines while he was in Cyprus — wines from Spain, Chile or Australia. Maybe he tried one from Cyprus, he thought, but mainly he stuck with the value import wines.

In this respect my new friend’s consumption pattern reflects the Cyprus wine market in general. When Cyprus entered the European Union back in 2004 its ability to protect its domestic wine industry from cheaper imports was greatly diminished — imports account for about two-thirds of Cyprus wine sales now — and a new wine regime began to emerge.

Regime Change 101vasilikon

Unable to compete with very efficient international value wine producers, Cyprus had no choice but to reconfigure its wine sector to move up the quality (and price scale). And while Cypriot wines are not expensive by American standards (a bottle of truly excellent Vasilikon Xynisteri dry white wine cost less than $20 at a seaside restaurant in the tourist district — what a steal!) they are necessarily priced above the imports.

This was my first visit to Cyprus, but not my first experience with the types of changes that Cyprus wine is experiencing. My native Washington State, for example, had to make the quality leap in the 1960s when the “California Wine Bill” was passed by the legislature in Olympia and cheaper California wine flooded into the local market. The forced upscale move was the best thing that every happened to the wine industry here.

New Zealand faced the same sort of situation in the 1980s, when the collapse of their protected wine sector forced a dramatic economic course correction. Imports flooded in, foreign investment came, too, and a new export-oriented quality wine industry emerged. New Zealand today has the highest average export price of any country for still wines — an amazing achievement.

I found a similar story in Canada, which was forced to liberalize wine trade with the U.S. when the Nafta agreement was signed in the 1990s. In order to be competitive winegrowers in the Okanagan had to replace their hybrid vines with vitis vinifera — an expensive investment. But the results have been amazing.

The transition from volume to value is never easy and is always controversial (my South African friends can attest to this). Not all firms or regions will make it through the process successfully (there is a “survivor bias” to the data), but the success stories are compelling. This is the world that Cyprus wine has entered.

Revolutionary Vanguard

promara

Revolutions always have a vanguard. As is often the case, some winemakers took the first steps to higher quality before market conditions made this a necessity and we visited several of these pioneering wineries (see complete list below). One that stands out in my mind is Vouni Panayia Winery in the mountains near Pafos, which was the first private regional winery in Cyprus.

Vouni Panayia was founded in 1987 by Andreas Kyriakides, who had previously worked in the enology and viticulture section of the Department of Agriculture and so had a good understanding the Cyprus wine sector. He and his family set out to achieve quality at a time when quantity was still a strong factor and to do it using indigenous grape varieties at a time when international varieties were in vogue.

Kyriakides bet on his vision of the future and the family’s efforts have paid off. Sue and I were impressed with the deep red  Yiannoudi, which went so well with the roast lamb at lunch, and the delightful dry white Alina (made with Xynisteri variety). The white Promara (indigenous Promara variety)  was fantastic — a desert island wine candidate!

Going Native?

Vouni Panayia Winery might have helped start the quality revolution in Cyprus, but they have had plenty of help. The movement is advancing rapidly today and seems to be ready for the next challenge: gaining greater traction (and higher prices) in the domestic and carefully chosen export markets.

My first thought when I tasted some of the wines was that Xynisteri could be the key to this next stage — it is a delightful dry white wine that would appeal to Sauvignon Blanc drinkers. That first bottle of Vasilikon Xynisteri was followed by several others of that variety from various producers and we never had one that wasn’t delicious.

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This observation led, of course, to the idea that indigenous varieties should be the prime focus for both red and white wines. Vouni Panayia certainly makes a strong case for the indigenous grapes of Cyprus.

I still believe in the Cypriot native varieties, but as we tasted more and more wines I realized that Cyprus winemakers can do wonders with some of the international varieties, too. Maybe a hybrid strategy is called for.

My heart wants indigenous variety wines that are not found anywhere else in the world, but my pragmatic head says that Cypriot winemakers should make the best wines they can out of other grapes, too. We had wonderful Syrah and Cabernet Sauvignon. Why not? So long as native varieties are not forgotten. The quality of the best of these wines is so high that I think they will thrive.

The Next New Zealand?

So, to return to the headline at the top of the page that I teased you with, is Cyprus likely to be the next New Zealand — a small, almost forgotten wine-making island that makes the transition from volume to value with spectacular success?

It is not a ridiculous question. Back in the mid-1980s not many could have imagined much less boldly predicted the amazing growth that New Zealand has achieved in the last 30 years. That same conversation (Do Kiwis make wine?) that I had about Cyprus at the start of this column could have been about New Zealand wine back then.

That said, Cyprus is not likely to be the next New Zealand. No one is. New Zealand’s unexpected success was the product of global market conditions that don’t exist in exactly the same way today due to the rapid expansion of wine production in other New World nations. The market space that New Zealand has been able to fill doesn’t exist in the same way for other wine exporting countries any more.

But Cyprus doesn’t have to be the next New Zealand to be successful. Wine-makers on this small island have great potential and if they can only work together to realize it in domestic and international wine markets, that will be good enough.

Maybe in 30  years we will ask if some other country has the potential to be the next Cyprus? Wouldn’t that be delicious!

2017 Cyprus Wineries Visited

Ezousa Winery

Nelion Winery

Tsangarides Winery

Tsiakkas Winery

Vasilikon Winery

Vlassides Winery

Vouni Panayia Winery

Zambartas Winery

Look Through the Rainbow: Cyprus Wine’s History of Boom and Bust

rainbow

We were sitting in the sleek, modern Vlassides Winery tasting the wonderful wines of Sophocles Vlassides and hearing his strong views on wine, Cypriot wine, and his own ambitious winery project, when it started to rain.

Weather can be complicated in these mountains and soon the sun began to shine through the showers creating first a simple rainbow, then a richer multicolored arc, and finally a pair of rainbows nestled together. From our winery perch we could see both ends of the rainbow (where pots of gold are said to rest) firmly rooted in the vineyards below.

Rainbow, vineyard, pot of gold — what a perfect metaphor for Cyprus wines, I thought. But the sharply analytical Sophocles Vlassides (who studied winemaking at UC Davis as a Fulbright Scholar) popped my mental bubble. Rainbows are pretty, but we were really looking at the wrong thing. If you want to understand Cyprus wine today, don’t look at the rainbows, look through them to the mountain across the valley.

If you look through the rainbows on Sue’s photo above you will see the remnants of dozens  of terraces that once were planted to vines that, along with hundreds of similar vineyard areas, formed the basis of the great Cyprus wine boom.

The Surprising History of Cypriot Wine

I had never tasted a Cypriot wine before we arrived in Pafos for the Cyprus Wine Competition. You might not have tasted one either because most of the wines are consumed in Cyprus these days and only a trickle enters export market pipelines. But this wasn’t always the case.

Cypriot wines were once well known and some even famous in European wine circles according to the Oxford Companion to Wine‘s history. Pliny the Elder, the Roman “Robert Parker,” praised them, for example. Cyprus fell under Venetian influence for a time and its  wines circulated widely. I have a reproduction of a book called Wines of Cyprus by Giovanni Mariti that was written to explain Cypriot wine to international consumers. It is dated 1772. and was first published in Florence.wines-of-cyprus

Commandaria, Cyprus’s signature sweet wine, commands an important role in the country’s wine history. Indeed, Wines of Cyprus talks of little else. Along with Tokaj, Vin de Constance and a few other treasured sweet wines, Commandaria was a “King of Wines and Wine of Kings.” Ironically, my book was written during the period of Ottoman rule when the Cypriot wine trade and the industry itself slowly declined in importance.

Cyprus came under British administration between 1878 and 1960 (so UK electrical plugs are needed and autos drive on the left side of the road). Cyprus “sherry” became an important export during this period — we saw a few old bottles at the Cyprus Wine Museum in Erimi Village — but this trade has faded away, too.

Look Through the Rainbow

A variety of circumstances led to a boom in production and export of cheap basic wines and grape must concentrate (some of which was reconstituted and fermented as British wine) in the years after the British exit.  The grapes to make these wines (international and indigenous varieties) came from the vineyards we saw (and many others like them) when we looked through the rainbow at Vlassides.  Yields might have been high in those days, but it is pretty clear that production costs were high, too. No machine harvesting on steep terraced slopes.

The Cyprus export boom collapsed in two stages according to the industry people we talked with.  Competition from cheaper New World producers such as Chile and Australia crowded Cypriot wine out of some markets. The collapse of the Soviet Union drained dry previously reliable Eastern European markets for basic wine. The Cypriot bulk wine boom went to bust.

A Quality Revolution

The movement from unmarketable quantity to desirable quality began in the 1980s, according to the Oxford Companion, led by the “Big 4” producers: KEO, SODAP (a cooperative), ETKO and Loel. Change accelerated after 2004 when Cyprus joined the European Union. Subsidies to cheap wine exports ended and uneconomic vineyards like the one we saw were grubbed up.

The contrast between past and future was clear to see as we talked wine with Sophocles  Vlassides at his modern facility tasting the tense, structured wines that he makes from international varieties (perhaps reflecting his UC Davis training) and indigenous varieties, too.  Sue and I took home a bottle of his excellent Syrah and Panos Kakaviatos, who was in our media group, opted for an unexpected Sauvignon Blanc.

What is the state of the Cyprus wine industry today? Are there pots of gold at the vineyard rainbow ends ? Or have I stretched this metaphor a bit too far? Come back in two weeks (after Independence Day) for observations and analysis.

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In the meantime, here are some rainbows for you to ponder.

 

Back to the Future? First Impressions of Wine and Wine Tourism in Cyprus

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Cyprus is known for many things: culture (fantastic archaeological sites), cuisine (haloumi, the wonderful grilling cheese), international politics (the ongoing dispute with Turkey over the island itself), and tourism (beautiful beach resorts).

Cypriot wine? Probably not on your radar for reasons I will explain in next week’s column. But that wasn’t always the case. Commandaria, a wonderful sweet wine, was once treasured throughout Europe along with Tokaj, Sauternes, and Vin de Constance. Cyprus Sherry was popular, too, and bulk wine exports once found their way to Russia, the UK, and elsewhere.

Cyprus wine today? Not much seen outside of Cyprus. But that might be changing. Stay tuned.

Pafos: Cultural Capital of Europe

Sue and I came to Cyprus as guests of the Cyprus Tourist Organization to attend the 10th Cyprus Wine Competition in Pafos and spend several days exploring wineries and wine tourism opportunities. This is the first of several columns that report what we learned from this fascinating experience.

Our first day in Pafos was spent recovering from jet lag and taking in a few sights. It was a short walk from the luxurious Almyra Hotel  where we stayed to the archaeological park (a Unesco World Heritage site!) where we saw beautiful mosaics featuring wine-swilling Dionysus (how appropriate) and saw the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra was setting up for a lunch concert.

Wait! The Berlin Philharmonic? Yes. Pafos is a European Capital of Culture for 2017 and there is a fantastic line-up of events planned for the year. The concert was sold out, so we couldn’t stay, but we could hear the music quite clearly from the balcony of our hotel room. A sweet introduction to Cyprus!

Cyprus Wine Industry Symposium

It was back to business the next day. I gave a keynote speech to a Cypriot wine industry symposium that also included speakers from OIV, local university research projects, and the head of the wine competition.  Panos Kakaviatos, who was part of our group of international visitors, has written about this event and the Cyprus wine industry more generally on his blog Wine-Chronicles.com — you should check it out.

I spoke about the lessons that can be learned, both positive and negative, from successful wine regions and several of the points I made seemed to strike a chord with the Cypriot winemakers. Here’s a quick summary of the key take-aways.

Competition versus Cooperationc1

Wine is a very competitive business, but one lesson I have learned is that successful wine regions find ways to set aside retail competition to a certain degree in order to cooperate to build reputation and the regional “brand.” Cooperation is the key, both among wineries and also with local and regional tourist and government authorities.  There really is strength in numbers.

This simple point seemed to resonate with many people in the room who commented about it later that day and when I talked with them later in the week, too. Everyone seemed to believe that Cyprus wine players need to learn to work together more effectively and to build the public-private partnerships that are so useful in other wine regions.

I sensed that there was pent-up frustration about the lack of teamwork. My goal in giving talks like this one isn’t so much to tell people what to do as to give them something to think about and if my remarks stimulate some thought and eventual action in this regard I will be very satisfied.

Wine Tourism Leverage

Since we were visiting as guests of the tourist authority, I spent a little time talking about how important wine tourism can be, not just to sell wine, but to create brand ambassadors who will carry the story of your winery and region with them when they go home. Cyprus has the raw materials — excellent wineries and world-class tourism infrastructure. Leveraging these resources through wine tourism seems like the logical next step.

But it will take work (and teamwork) to accomplish this. One winemakers told me frankly that no wine tourists came to his winery. Plenty of tourists visited — they stopped by, tasted wines, and made purchases. Indeed, his winery could not survive without the tourist trade.

But they are not wine tourists, he said. The haven’t come to this part of Cyprus because of the wine.  Creating real wine tourism, where wine drives the agenda, that’s a challenge.

One Wine to Rule Them All?

Readers of this column already know the I am skeptical of the idea that every region needs to have a “signature variety” of wine. Napa has Cab, Argentina has Malbec, New Zealand has Sauvignon Blanc. We need to put all our chips on one grape variety to power our wine industry, too. That’s the conventional logic and I have my doubts.53994_lg

As it happens, Cyprus is having its own “signature” wine discussion just now and so my comments got some attention. Commandaria (a.k.a. “the world’s oldest wine”), we were told, was the key to raising the international profile of Cypriot wine.  The Cyprus wine people we talked with were convinced about this. Commandaria will lead the charge and the other wines will gallop behind to victory.

The “internationals” in our little group were unconvinced by this strategy and hopefully our comments were helpful even if we really didn’t change anyone’s mind. Commandaria is a sweet wine, we said, and sweet wines are a small category and a tough sell around the world today. Port struggles to get traction. Commandaria faces a steep climb.

The thing about Commandaria is that it is unique to Cyprus and has a distinguished history. But I am not sure that the wine is well known outside of traditional markets and so selling it requires expensive consumer education resources, which might more effectively deployed elsewhere.

It might be better to have another wine lead the way, one that fits into a more popular market segment. Xinistera, for example, a delightful dry white wine with instant appeal.  More about this is future columns.

Everyone Loves a Winner

Finally, I noted that many wine regions use wine rankings and competition results to promote their wines. Consumers are drawn to lists and ratings like the Classification of 1855, for example, or the Wine Spectator Top 100. I suggested that Cyprus had some work to do to get the word out about its finest wines in this way.

The wine competition we came to Pafos to attend, for example, seemed to be a Cypriot secret. It was difficult to find any mention of it on the internet. And the results from previous  years were nearly impossible to find. A missed opportunity to cultivate interest by promoting the best that Cyprus has to offer.

It didn’t take long for this message to sink in and for action to be taken, which is great. I am hoping that the 2018 wine competition will more thoroughly publicized and that the wineries will be able to leverage the results more forcefully, both in domestic and export markets.

In the meantime, the 2017 Decanter World Wine Awards results have been released and 78 Cypriot wines received recognition. That’s a great opportunity for the Cyprus wine industry to blow its own horn and for consumers to begin to learn about the excellent wines made on this beautiful island.

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Greetings and thanks to everyone we met on our brief visit to Cyprus. Special thanks to Maria, Panos, Per, Jean-Claude, Dimetri, Georgios, Patrick, Pambos, Mary, and Nektarios. (More thanks to come in future columns.) Come back next week for an analysis of the state of the Cypriot wine industry today and the unexpected history behind it.

How Will Brexit Impact World Wine Markets? A Dismal New Forecast

brexitMy remarks at the Unified Wine and Grape Symposium‘s “State of the Industry” session earlier this year focused on the uncertainty surrounding Brexit (Britain’s choice to exit the European Union) and the great potential it has to damage wine markets in both the UK and other countries.

I called Brexit a “known unknown” because we know (or should realize) that we really don’t know what Brexit will look like when the two-year exit process concludes or what its impact will be when the dust finally clears.

The exit negotiations will begin in earnest after the June 8 elections in the UK, which Prime Minister Theresa May and her Tory party are expected to win although perhaps not by as big a margin as originally conceived.

An Inconvenient Truth

One particular problem for the wine industry is that wine isn’t very important to the overall British economy (so don’t expect it to get much special attention in the trade negotiations), but the British market is extremely important to the global wine industry, both as a major importer and a bottling and distribution center.  The UK market is a top target for many wine exporters, including Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and even the United States.

Kym Anderson (University of Adelaide) and Glyn Wittwer (Victoria University, Melbourne) have taken a first stab at understanding what is at stake in a study that they released earlier this month titled “Will Brexit Harm UK and Global Wine Markets? (pdf). Anderson and Wittwer ran three Brexit scenarios through their econometric model of the global wine market and reported the results.  I encourage you to take the time to study their research.

Major Impact on Wine

Anderson and Wittwer’s conclusion, to cut to the chase, are that there would be substantial Brexit impact on UK wine imports:

In our ‘large’ Brexit scenario, as compared with the initial baseline scenario, the consumer price of wine in 2025 would be 22% higher in the UK in local currency terms (20% because of real depreciation of the pound, 4% because of the new tariffs on EU, Chilean and South African wines, and -2% because of slower UK income growth). The volume of UK wine consumption would be 28% lower (16% because of slower UK economic growth, 7% because of real depreciation of the pound, and 5% because of the new tariffs). Super-premium still wine sales would be the most affected, dropping by two-fifths, while sparkling and commercial wines would drop by a little less than a quarter.

The authors examine three Brexit scenarios, judging that the most likely general outcome (the “large” Brexit model) is that the UK would adopt the same tariff barriers as the EU27 in the short run and then work eventually to restore free trade arrangements with Chile and South Africa. This makes sense to me if for no other reason than that Britain lacks the time and staff necessary to negotiate Brexit and to work out its own detailed tariff regime and also to negotiate detailed free trade agreements to replace those that will be lost.

Losers and Winners?

Brexit will obviously have high costs for UK wine consumers and retailers and for the bottling and distribution industries as well. Who will suffer the most among countries that export wine to the UK?

Australia, New Zealand, and the US will have to deal with the negative income growth rate effects of Brexit and the exchange rate impacts, too, but won’t see an increase in tariff rates under the “large” Brexit scenario, since their exports to the UK are already subject to EU rates. They will gain a little form a more level playing field with respect to European wine producers in the UK market.

Chile and South Africa are more vulnerable to Brexit woes because they currently have preferential access to the EU (and thus British) market. Their wine exports to the UK will be subject to tariff at least until they can reach new free trade agreements.

European wine exports (France, Italy, Spain and others) previously had tariff-free access to the UK market and so will face new barriers to trade. But, as Anderson and Wittwer note, the likely tariff rate of 13 pence per liter is dwarfed by Britain’s domestic excise tax of nearly £3 per liter and 20% VAT.

No Rising Tide

Does anyone win in this analysis of Brexit? Well you would think that the small but growing UK wine industry would gain from the various hurdles that imported wine faces — and they will. But Brexit is also likely to make imported winemaking and vineyard equipment and supplies more expensive and restrict or increase the cost of migrant seasonal labor, so it is unclear if Brexit will be truly beneficial.

And of course the declining overall wine market is bad news — the opposite of the idea that a rising tide raises all ships, if you see what I mean.

The devil is in the details of scenario forecasts like this and we won’t really know what to expect until the May government announces its intentions (and even then we might not know because the government has developed a recent habit of reversing itself on economic policies and, of course, the final outcome depends on the EU negotiating stance, too). Until then, however, this forecast is a very good place to start your thinking.

This column is just a summary of the new research with a few thoughts of my own. I encourage you to read the Anderson-Wittwer paper and note your own thoughts and reactions in the Comments section below.

Can Sherry Be the Next Big Thing?

tioCan Sherry be the “Next Big Thing” in wine? I know what you are thinking. Sherry? C’mon! That’ll never catch fire in a big way. And you may be right, but give me a chance to make my case before you close the door on the Sherry cabinet.

One of the things that Sue and I wanted to do during our recent visit to Spain was learn more about Sherry. But the itinerary seemed to work against that. No time to jet south to Jerez de la Frontera in Andaluca, Sherry’s home. We would have to piece together our education in other wine regions. With a little luck and some helpful friends, we managed quite well.

Stumbling on Sherry in Madrid

Madrid is a long way from Jerez, but we found Sherry all around us, suggesting just how much it is a part of Spanish culture. Walking the aisles of the historic San Miguel market near the Plaza Mayor, for example, we stumbled upon a market stall called The Sherry Corner where dozens of different wines were offered by the glass at bargain prices. We had fun trying new Sherry wines and revisiting old favorites.

sherrycorner

The Sherry Corner offers a fun self-guided audio tour of Sherry wines. For €30 you get six glasses of different Sherries in a special carrier, coupons for six matching tapas from various market stalls, and an audio program available in six languages. It is quite a bargain when you do the math and it lets you both get to know the wines, experiment with pairings, and take advantage of the amazing tapas on offer at the market.

We found a completely different experience at the restaurant Zahara de Osborne in the Plaza Santa Ana, which was close by our hotel. The restaurant is owned by the Osborne wine group that is famous for its Sherry wines (you can see the Osborne bull staring down from hilltops all around Spain).

The idea of the restaurant was to bring the food and culture of Andaluca to Madrid. We challenged our waiter to create that experience for us and he did a great job choosing the dishes and helping us with pairings. Gosh, the Fino was delicious with a delicately fried whole fish!

Indigenous Sherry Culture

Not that Madrid does not have its own indigenous Sherry culture. There are Sherry bars in several parts of the city. Friends guided us to one called La Venencia, where the Sherry is served en rama, fresh and unfiltered, right from the barrel, which is a style I like a lot. My university colleague Harry uses La Venencia as his office when he is in Madrid (which is a lot) and he made introductions to José and Gabriel who worked the bar that day.

La Venencia has as much depth and character as the wines that are served there.  If you have any pre-conceptions, you must check them at the door and accept the bar for what it is, which is true of Sherry wines, too. And then, well, it is a complete pleasure. Sherry really isn’t like anything else you will ever drink and La Venencia is just the same.

I have seldom been anywhere that was so totally itself and I will always associate that strong impression with the dry Manzanilla Sherry wines we enjoyed at La Venecia.osborne

A Little Help from our Friends

We got a little help from friends at Osborne and Gonzalez Byass wineries in our quest to learn more about Sherry. Santiago Salinas arranged for a tasting of Rare Old Sherries when we visited Osborne’s Montecilla winery in Rioja. These were wines for philosophers and poets. It is stunning to discover what great Sherries can become with time. We were inspired by Santiago’s passion for the wines and, of course, by the wines themselves.

Our visit to Finca Constancia near Toledo was organized around a rather extravagant seminar and tasting of Gonzalez Byass wines ranging from their signature Fino, Tio Pepe, on to a special Tio Pepe en rama bottling, and then carefully and thoroughly all the way through the line-up to the sweet, concentrated Pedro Xeménez.

Marina Garcia, our guide on this Sherry tour, was not afraid to draw out the complexities of the wines, which is great. As I told my audience at the General Assembly, sometimes complicated things need to be understood in complicated ways. Our favorite? We discovered the Palo Cortado Sherry style and it made us think. I love it when a wine does that.

Sherry doesn’t have to complicated … or sweet either, for that matter, although many people put the wines in that category. A chilled bottle of very dry fino or Manzanilla is pretty pure pleasure and will change many minds. But you’ve got to try it yourself to be persuaded and that’s a  challenge.constancia

Sherry’s Moment?

If you look at the fundamentals, it is easy to conclude that this could be Sherry’s moment. The wines are great and well-priced. They come in a range of styles that variously make great aperitifs, pair well with food, or help unleash that inner poet. Apparently Sherry works really well as a cocktail base, too. Gotta check that out.

Tourism in Spain is on the rise and Spain’s tapas culture cuisine, which matches up so well with dry Sherry, is increasingly popular. Sherry, as much as any wine I know, is a product of time and place, and wears its authenticity proudly.  Authentic, affordable, food-friendly. Aren’t these the things that wine drinkers are looking for today?

Sherry’s burden is its reputation as that sweet old wine that grandma drinks. There is so much more to Sherry for those who pull the cork. If enough curious wine drinkers pull enough corks, perhaps Sherry’s “Next Big Thing” potential can be realized!

Is Sherry going to be the next big thing? Probably not. But it doesn’t have to be. It is a timeless wine waiting to be re-discovered by a new generation of wine drinkers.

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Thanks to everyone who helped us with our Sherry research. Special thanks to Susana, Mauricio, Marina, Santiago, George, Cesar, Greg, Harry, Jensen, Gabriel, and José. Thanks to Sue for these photos of the big Tio Pepe sign in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol, the menu at The Sherry Corner, the rare old Osborne Sherries, and the many hues of the Gonzalez Byass Sherry wines.