Category Archives: wine markets

Arizona Wine Revisited

March 28, 2023 By in wine, wine markets, wine tourism 1 Comment

It has been 15 years since our last visit to Arizona to check out the wine scene (our report appeared in an early Wine Economist column), so it didn’t take much to persuade us to go back to see how things have changed.

Our first trip was based out of Tuscon, near the main vineyard areas in the southeast of the state. This time we traveled up north to scenic Sedona to explore Arizona’s newest AVA, the Verde Valley. Our visit was interrupted by that big winter storm that swept across the country last month and threatened to block our way home. But all’s well that ends well — we were able to start our fieldwork in Sedona and end it in Old Town Scottsdale, which is home to many tasting rooms.

Here is our report, starting with some broad facts about Arizona wine and then drilling down a bit into specifics.

Bigger and Smaller

The Arizona wine industry is both bigger than you think and smaller than you might imagine. Arizona now has 108 wineries according to the January 2023 issue of Wine Business Monthly. That includes 90 bonded wineries and 18 “virtual” wineries. Virtual wineries? Yes, this is a growing trend. These are wine brands without vineyards or their own winemaking facilities. About 1000 of California’s nearly 5000 wineries are virtual operations. And virtual wineries account for almost 300 of the 900 total wineries in Oregon.

Arizona ranks #17 among U.S. states based on the number of wineries — bigger than you might have guessed. But the individual wineries tend to be small. Arizona Stronghold Vineyards, for example, is the largest winery in the state with an annual production of about 20,000 cases.  Total production for the state is about 350,000 cases a year, we were told. If that’s correct, that means all Arizona wineries taken together make about as much wine as Daou Family Estates or JUSTIN Vineyards and Winery (data from Wine Business Monthly).

Lattitude versus Elevation

One reason you might not expect Arizona to be a wine state is its latitude. It can indeed be very hot in Arizona, which is why snowbirds flock there in the winter. But elevation compensates for latitude in Arizona much as it does in Mendoza, Argentina.

Wine grapes grow well in Arizona at elevations between 3500 and 6000 feet. Most of the vineyards are in the southeast near Willcox and about 75% to 80% of the grapes are grown there. But other parts of the state have active winegrowing, too, including the Verde Valley near Sedona.

Arizona wine is a premium product — there is no such thing as Arizona Two Buck Chuck. Lack of scale is one cause of higher cost, of course, but basic supply and demand play an important role. The amount of vineyard acreage has not increased as fast as the number of wineries seeking grapes. So grape prices have risen and wine prices along with them. We heard several people talk about $3000 per ton grape prices, for example, and that means $30+ bottle prices.

The vineyards are smaller than you will find in many regions and tend to be planted with many different grape varieties, further limiting economies of scale. I don’t think Arizona has a “signature” wine grape variety, although Syrah and GSM-style blends seem to be on every tasting room list. One reason for the kaleidoscope of grape varieties is just that Arizona is a young industry still in the experimentation stage.

Free to Choose

Another factor, however, is probably that making wine in Arizona means being free to do what you like to a certain extent. In Napa Valley buyers expect to find Cabernet Sauvignon. Ditto Malbec in Mendoza. In Cottonwood or Jerome, on the other hand, you can follow your personal preferences.

One source of this freedom is the fact that a lot of Arizona wines are hand-sold direct-to-consumer. Arizona wine sales regulations allow small wineries greater freedom for direct sales, so many focus on tasting rooms and wine clubs. Several wineries, for example, have tasting rooms in Willcox, Scottsdale, and Cottonwood. Scottsdale is a big tourist destination and Cottonwood is just a short drive from popular Sedona.

Local Market Focus

In part because of the scale issues and local regulations, most Arizona wineries focus on in-state sales through their direct channels. There is a lot of work to do to make Arizona wines more visible within Arizona before taking on bigger markets. Sue and I thought that on-premise sales might be a good way to spread the word, but neither Sedona restaurant we tried had Arizona wines on their list.

One manager shrugged when we asked about the situation. Too costly, he said. I can appreciate that problem. Once you apply restaurant markups to Arizona wine that visiting diners might not have heard of, it could be a tough sell.

But not impossible, as we discovered at lunch at a great Mexican restaurant in Scottsdale. They featured Chateau Tumbleweed wines in their by-the-glass program to support local producers. We tried a Mourvedre-forward GSM blend called Dr. Ron Bot and it was terrific with our meals. We appreciated that the Arabella Hotel where we stayed in Sedona featured Arizona wine tastings for guests.

Arizona Highlights

We enjoyed our brief visit to this part of Arizona wine country. Highlights included …

Arizona Stronghold

  • Arizona’s largest winery is small (by California standards) but mighty. The wines we sampled were delicious and we were very impressed with the entrepreneurial spirit. Arizona wines are relatively expensive for the reasons noted above, but somehow Arizona Stronghold manages to produce a good-value line of wines called Provisioner that includes “Float Tripper Sipper” canned sparkling wines that are a perfect complement to the Arizona outdoor lifestyle. Very impressive.

Page Spring Cellars

  • The Verde Valley is a great spot for outdoor activities and for wine tourists, too, with several wineries and even more tasting rooms. But with most of the vineyards down south in the Willcox area, there are not many classic destination wineries with vineyards, cellars, and tasting rooms. Page Spring Cellars has it all plus an outstanding restaurant. No wonder it attracts thousands of visitors each year for the wine, the food, and the experience.

Carlson Creek Vineyards

  • A winter storm prevented us from visiting the tasting room in Cottonwood, but we learned a lot about Carlson Creek Vineyards in an hour spent at the Old Town Scottsdale tasting room. The place was really buzzing on a weekday afternoon and the wines were among our favorites of this visit. If you visit Phoenix and don’t check out the wine scene in Old Town Scottsdale you are missing a bet!

Caduceus Cellars / Merkin Vineyards

  • Caduceus Cellars and Merkin Vineyards are projects of Maynard James Keenan, the frontman for rock groups including Tool. Some celebrity wineries are vanity projects or over-hyped branding exercises, but wine clearly is the central element here. We weren’t able to visit the winery in Jerome, but the Merkin tasting room in Old Town Scottsdale is a popular stop for both food and wine. Sue and I shared the signature charcuterie platter perfectly paired with Caduceus Nagual del Agostina, a white wine made from 80% Vermentino and 20% Malvasia Bianca from the Agostina block vineyard in the Verde Valley’s Cornville district. That’s a blend of grapes you might not expect to find in Arizona, or anywhere else, but it really worked. Arizona is full of surprises like this!

Cove Mesa Vineyard

  • Cove Mesa’s tasting room is in Cornville, with newly planted vineyards nearby. Cove Mesa is another example of a winery trying lots of different grapes, including a new planting of Assyrtiko.

The Arizona wine industry has come a long way in the 15 years since our first visit. It will be interesting see what the future holds. In the meantime, keep Arizona wine on your radar!

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Thanks to the wineries, hotels, and restaurants that hosted us or helped us with our research. Special thanks to Melissa Rein Lively for organizing our visit.

The Wineries:

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Manias, Panics, Crashes, and Wine

March 21, 2023 By in economic crisis, wine, wine markets 1 Comment

One of the highlights of our visit to the Catena winery near Mendoza a few years ago was the opportunity to spend a few minutes in Nicolas Catena’s private study. Catena was an economics professor before he returned to the family wine business to guide it through the turbulent wine markets of the time and I was interested to see what was in his library (and on his mind) from those days.

As I scanned the bookshelves I was struck by the fact that, back in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Catena and I were following the same news reports and reading the same research, including books such as Charles P. Kindleberger’s classic Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. Relevant reading then and now, too, don’t  you think?

This Time is Different?

It is easy to imagine that financial instability, including manias, panics, and crashes, is something that happens in other places to other people at other times, but the recent banking crisis in the United States (and elsewhere) brings the problem clearly to our attention, especially given the involvement of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), an important part of the U.S. wine industry’s financial ecosystem,

It has always been the case that financial instability potentially affects all types of businesses and,  as Professor Catena understood all too well, the wine business. But, as I argued in my book about the global financial crisis, it is easy to ignore risks, forget the lessons of crises of the past, or to simply conclude that “this time is different.”

Financial instability is baked into the cake, as they say. Crises are a durable feature of modern capitalism so businesses are unwise to ignore potential risks, both direct (the risk that someone who owes you money can’t pay) and counter-part risk (the risk that someone who owes money to someone who owes you money can’t pay).

Wine’s Minsky Moment

It is possible to argue that the four most relevant economists of the 20th century were Schumpeter, Keynes, Friedman, and Minsky. Joseph Schumpeter studied growth. John Maynard Keynes helped us understand unemployment. Milton Friedman’s ideas of money and inflation are very important. Schumpeter, Keynes, Friedman — these are names you might know. What about the fourth, Hyman P. Minsky?

This is a Minsky moment because his work examined instability and crisis, which he thought were an inherent part of the financial system. I first studied Minsky when I was writing my book Selling Globalization. Using Minsky’s analysis, I argued that globalization was more fragile than most scholars believed because it was built, fundamentally, on the unstable foundation of global finance. People thought I was crazy as I worked through my ideas … and then the Asian Financial Crisis hit!

How do financial crises start? And how do they end? Like Tolstoy’s unhappy families, each is different in the details, but Minsky established a general seven-stage pattern that is a good guide. I will paste an excerpt from my book Globaloney 2.0 below so that those of you interested in the details can follow along. Pay particular attention to the distress, revulsion, and contagion stages and see if they sound familiar.

Try to Remember …

So how should the wine industry react to financial crises like the one we are experiencing today? It would be easy to say that crises are a finance problem, not a wine industry problem. Wine just happened to get caught in the cross-hairs this time because of the SVB’s particular pattern of business. What are the odds of that happening again? That’s a fair point. Wine loans had nothing to do with the bank’s collapse.

My view is a little different. Financial crises are a wine problem because wine is a business and businesses are necessarily disrupted by unstable finance. Businesses need to take their financial risks more explicitly into account. That goes for wine businesses, too.

I don’t think that wineries in Argentina have forgotten this lesson, mainly because they have suffered repeated and severe crises (the current 100+ percent inflation rate suggests another crisis in on the cards).

The wineries who found their accounts at SVB frozen for a few days (because they exceeded the $250,000 limit to FDIC insurance that applied at the time) will not quickly forget this lesson, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the memory eventually fades once “normal” operations are fully restored. That’s one of the reasons why Minsky moments like this return.

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Excerpt from Chapter 2 “Financial Globaloney: Safe as Houses” in Michael Veseth, Globaloney 2.0: The Crash of 2008 and the Future of Globalization (Rowman & Littlefield, 2010).

The leading authority on the theory of financial crises is Hyman P. Minsky, an economist who never received the respect he deserved within the profession because his theories challenged the orthodoxy that markets are generally quite stable (I will have more to say about this later).i Every financial crisis is different in the details (and not all bubbles or potential bubbles actually burst), but there is a family resemblance that Minsky explains as the seven stages to a financial crisis.ii

The first stage is called Displacement and it represents a change in expectations. It could be a new invention, discovery or government policy or it could be simply a change in expectations about the future. Whatever it is, Displacement creates a new object of speculation and at least some insiders rush in to take advance of the news.

Displacement happens all the time, of course. That’s why the stock markets go up and down every day and every hour of the day and every minute of every hour. People constantly react to real news, fake news and changing expectations. So there are a million little potential financial bubbles filling the market like fizz in a glass of Champagne, rising up and popping all the time. But some of them are a bit more substantial and gather the attention of both insiders and outsiders. It is hard to predict in advance when it will happen, but when it does a speculative bubble starts to form.

Minsky’s second stage is called Expansion. More and more money begins to focus on the speculative object, whatever it is – gold, silver, real estate or even tulip bulbs. The market can expand in several different dimensions. The most obvious, of course, is through money creation. When central bankers expand the money supply, as they sometimes do, they may expect that new funds will flow pretty much everywhere, but sometimes they are disproportionately diverted to particular investments fueling bubbles.

Leverage is another source of expansion. Leverage refers to the use of borrowed funds (other people’s money) to increase the return on your money. Suppose you have $1000 and you believe that XYZ Corporation’s stock will double in the value in the next month. You could invest your $1000 and, if you are correct, earn a $1000 profit, a 100% return. Or you could take your $1000 and borrow $9000 to invest $10,000 in total. This would be a leverage ratio of nine to one. If your expectations are fulfilled, the profit would be $10,000 on your $1000 investment (minus whatever interest costs you had to pay). Instead of a 100% return you would receive something approaching a 1000% return. Leverage is a wonderful thing when it works, but it is of course very risky. Just as you can earn much more than your initial stake you can also lose much more.

Expansion also takes place as the population of potential investors grows. Insiders (people with specialized investment knowledge) are joined by well-informed amateurs and then rank amateurs who sometimes just follow the herd based on what they read on the internet or hear from friends and co-workers. Water-cooler investors, I guess you could call them. The movement from professionally managed employee pension funds to individually managed 401k and similar retirement instruments has facilitated this sort of expansion in many countries. It is easy to belittle the ill-informed financial decisions that “blind capital” makes, but highly paid geniuses do not always out-performed them.iii

Finally, expansion can occur if the speculative object draws the attention of international or even global investment markets. Interconnected global financial markets are capable of focusing enormous sums on particular speculative objects, with predictable results. It is as if a giant magnifying glass focused the full power of the sun on some object or creature. Destruction seems assured, but first comes the heat.

Expansion does not always produce a crisis because investors can be fickle. There is always something new to consider, always a million different things to displace expectations and the funds that fuel expansion now can quickly withdraw and move on. The markets can achieve a state that Minsky calls Euphoria, however, if attention remains focus and expansion sustained. Euphoria produces a sense that investors can do no wrong. It is impossible to make a bad decision, since the general rise of the market covers any poor individual choices.

Economic logic simply evaporates in the Euphoria stage. Logic warns to buy less as price rises. Euphoria whispers that rising prices today are harbingers of even higher prices now – time to buy! And buy even more as those future price increases appear. The buying binge and the higher prices they produced are indeed self-fulfilling prophecies, which are the best kind. Sometimes Euphoria just fizzles out, but sometimes it can be sustained, especially if expansion from whatever source is maintained.

Distress comes next in the classic seven stage scenario. Distress is the moment when insiders begin to believe that the market cannot be sustained. Doubts creep in and alternative scenarios are reviewed. The market may pause or slow or the collapse could begin.

Revulsion follows as some investors begin to act upon their doubts. Insiders head for the door first, often leaving with substantial profits in their pockets. Others follow, causing the Crisis stage. The self-fulfilling rising price prophecy of Euphoria is reversed as lower prices trigger sell-offs that drive prices even further down. Everyone wants cash in this market, but it is hard to come buy. Who will lend in a falling market? Who will buy when prices are falling to fast? Someone does, obviously, but at much lower prices.

Crisis is often accompanied by the seventh stage, Contagion. The crisis in one market spreads to others. Contagion can happen in several ways. Sometimes the bubble in one market expands to others and all collapse at once. This was the case with the Peso Crisis of the 1990s. Unlucky investors, drawn to Mexico by the prospect of NAFTA gains, ended up putting money into many Latin American markets, all of which surged and then collapsed together. They called it the “Tequila Hangover” effect.

Leverage creates another contagion vector. As prices fall, leveraged investments go “under water” and speculators are required to put up additional funds. Since credit is hard to come by in the crisis stage, there is often little choice but to sell off good investments to cover losses on increasingly bad ones. Thus the Russian financial crisis of 1998 triggered contagion in Brazil as speculators sold off Brazilian investments to cover their rouble losses.

Finally, contagion can take place as credit markets freeze up generally. Businesses that are accustomed to ready access to credit (for themselves or their customers) are shocked as liquidity disappears. Economic misery spreads from the financial sector to the so-called real economy as declining wealth and restricted credit affect change buyer and seller behavior.

This is how a classic financial crisis unfolds. Not every crisis goes full term, of course, and the damage when they do is not always substantial. But as Kindleberger explained 30 years ago and Reinhart and Rogoff’s study has more recently confirmed, major damaging financial crises happen often enough to be considered a common feature of international finance. So no one should be surprised when these markets behave as they so frequently do.

i John Kenneth Galbraith is another economist whose status outside the profession was much higher than within it due to his failure to his unorthodox views.
ii See chapter 2 of Kindleberger Manias, Panics, and Crashes.
iii Walter Bagehot coined the term “blind capital” to refer to uninformed but enthusiastic amateur investors who are drawn into speculative bubbles.

Chutes and Ladders: Wine and the Premiumization Game

March 7, 2023 By in wine, wine markets, wine price 6 Comments

I believe that the games we all played when we were younger taught us valuable lessons, both about life in general and life in today’s wine industry in particular. Risk, for example, taught us to be strategic in analyzing any situation. Checkers and chess taught us to think beyond the next move or the one after that, to anticipate our competition’s reaction to each possible action.

Monopoly, of course, prepared us for the wine industry’s continuing consolidation with big getting bigger at every level — retail, distribution, winery, and vineyard.

Up and Down

Chutes and Ladders (or Snakes and Ladders for some of you) is the game to play if you want to get a sense of the premiumization game that is a distinct characteristic of the wine industry today. Chutes and Ladders is a race to get from the bottom of the playing field to the top. You can climb up one step at a time, but ladders sometimes zoom you to a higher level. That’s great, but there are also chutes that send you tumbling down again.

Wine businesses have been encouraged to play the Chutes and Ladders game because the growth in the market has ratcheted upscale with surprising speed since the global financial crisis. Sales of wine at lower price points have languished or declined. The growth zone has shifted to higher and higher price points (which entail lower and lower volumes). The sweet spot in the wine market is a moving target. Talk about Risk!

Sometimes it seems like if you are not climbing the ladder you must be falling down the chute. Growth-seeking wine brands must keep climbing market ladders as the sweet spot shifts, but (to mix metaphors) it is hard for a tiger to change its stripes. Once a brand has established an identity, it is dangerous to cut prices and difficult to raise prices. Climbing the premiumization ladder can be a roll of the dice.

Early Mover Disadvantage

I have seen this with some European wines that entered the US market back in the day when market conditions were different, It is hard for them now to change stripes. Take the popular-priced red wines of Valpolicella, for example. These were once some of the best-selling imported wines on U.S. shelves and still do very well, but the bargain prices that drew attention back then no longer make the same impression.

Montepulciano D’Abruzzo faces some of the same challenges. Buyers may think of good value, not high quality when they see this wine, which is a problem if spending growth is focused on higher price points.  When we were doing research for our trip to Abruzzo last year, for example, most of the Montepulciano d’Abruzzo wines we found were in the “good value” category — a legacy of the region’s early successful entry into the U.S. market.

The low point came when we found a popular brand of Montepulciano d’Abruzzo in a Grocery Outlet store selling for just $5.99 per 1.5-liter bottle. Not the image you want to see, especially since the region has so much potential.

Climbing the Ladder

We found excellent wines during our trip to Abruzzo. We were especially impressed by the small wineries of Villamagna DOC, for example, and the Cantina Frentana cooperative showed that quality and quantity could go hand-in-hand.

We’ve recently been sampling the Villa Gemma line of wines from  Masciarelli, and they are terrific. The Montepulciano d’Abruzzo Riserva 2017 is an example of a wine that can help redefine the category.

The classic-level Masciarelli wine sells for $12.99 at the upscale supermarket down the street and for just under $10 at a local big-box alcohol superstore. That’s a good price point, but with premiumization moving the ladder, market growth seems to be shifting up a level. Hence a focus on super-premium Villa Gemma and wines like it to take advantage of premiumization without sacrificing the existing profitable market.

North and South

Here in the U.S., we have the tale of Washington state’s Chateau Ste Michelle, which prospered just a few years ago when the sweet spot for wine sales growth was $8 to $10. The wines are very good, but they were pigeonholed by their price point and now the market has shifted higher.

New Zealand wines present the other side of the situation. New Zealand entered global markets at what were then surprisingly high prices. New Zealand’s average export price for still wines was for some years the highest in the world (remember that world wine flows include vast quantities of inexpensive bulk wines, which are not part of the New Zealand portfolio).

Having entered the US market at a higher price point, New Zealand wine (mainly Sauvignon Blanc) has benefited from each upward shift so far. But, seeing the writing on the wall, some Kiwi producers are getting ready for the next ladder climb. For example, we have recently sampled wines from Babich, which seem to be intended to scale the next ladder.

The Babich ladder begins with the classic Babich Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc and then climbs through Black Label, Family Estates, Select Blocks, and Winemaker’s Reserve tiers. Babich is a well-known champion of sustainable wine-growing and this is part of the brand ladder. The classic that we sampled was certified Sustainable and the Select Blocks wine was made with organic grapes.

The classic wine and the Select Blocks were very different  from each other when we tried them — as they should be. The classic was a refined variation on the now-familiar Marlborough Sauvignon theme. The Select Blocks wine was even more elegant and perhaps defines a new category — which is great in terms of product differentiation. But it didn’t say “Marlborough” to us as much as we’d liked.

How High is Up?

How much longer will the premiumization game of Chutes and Ladders last? And who will the eventual winner be? The wine market is like a dynamic pyramid and the volume of wine is smaller at the top of each ladder compared with the one before.

Like the housing bubble of a few years ago, this process doesn’t seem sustainable. That means that Stein’s Law probably applies: if something can’t go on forever … it will end.

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Note: Masciarelli has released a special wine, Pecorino Castello di Semivicoli 2022,  with proceeds to raise funds to support a charity that assists the parent of autistic children. Bravo, Masciarelli family!

Got Wine vs Not Wine? Wine and the Generation Gap

February 14, 2023 By in economic crisis, Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine markets 7 Comments

We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism. It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress … is over; that … a decline is prosperity is more likely than an improvement.

The economist John Maynard Keynes wrote these words in a 1930  essay called “The Economic Possibilities of our Grandchildren” and I have been thinking about them quite a lot recently in the context of the wine industry. Keynes was writing in the depths of the Great Depression. Is wine in (or headed towards) a Great Depression of its own?

On the Other Hand …

Certainly the mood at last month’s Unified Wine and Grape Symposium was mixed. Obviously I didn’t talk to all the 10,000 people who attended the 3-day event, but I think I got a general sense of what wine industry people are thinking and feeling from those I encountered.

On one hand (a classic economist opening phrase), there was an upbeat mood because the meetings and trade show themselves felt back-to-normal after several years of covid-driven disruption. The house was packed for our State of the Industry session, for example, and there was a record number of exhibitors at the trade show (and a waiting list for next year). Glass at least half full, for sure.

One the other hand (you knew that was coming), it was impossible to ignore some of the discouraging news in the air (I reported on some of this in last week’s Wine economist column). Some people blamed this on the recently released Silicon Valley Bank report, but I think that is unfair. Like our State of the Industry session, the SVB report has an obligation to be objective — to report the straight facts without a lot of spin. And I think their report does that well. Facts are facts. The question is what you do with them and whether, like Keynes, you can see beyond the current crisis to the possibilities of the future?

The Generation Gap: Got vs Not

Keynes was thinking in generational terms when he wrote his famous essay and a lot of the analysis of wine’s current malaise is generational, too. The baby boom generation powered the golden age of American wine, the story goes, but the generations that followed haven’t embraced wine with the same warm hug. What can we do to make Gen Z consumers love wine as much as their grandparents do? How can we close the wine generation gap?

This is a good question (and I am glad so many people are asking it), but it by-passes part of the problem. Yes, boomers as a group drink a lot of wine, but in fact wine consumption is concentrated among just a small fraction of boomers. The baby boom generation is large — it contains multitudes. It is both Gen Got Wine and Gen Not Wine. Generalizing about generations like the boomers is a risky business.

This is true, I believe, for other generations, too. What makes the wine drinking boomers different from the boomers who don’t drink wine or don’t use alcohol at all? And what, if anything, does the boomer wine cohort have in common with wine-drinking members of other generations? Maybe generational differences aren’t the whole story (or even the most important part of the story)? Is the gap as much within generations as between them?

How Full is your Glass?

Should we be optimists or pessimists as we consider the future of wine? Well, our situation is nowhere near as dire as what Keynes faced back in Depression days. The wine market requires only relatively small adjustments by comparison to restore a balance and a bit more to kick-start growth. Not easy by any means, and it might not happen, but not at all hopeless.

Keynes was an optimist and he used this essay to look far into the future, peering past the short term problems necessarily on his readers’ minds. The prospects for our grandchildren are bright, he said, so long as we are able to avoid certain obstacles — over-population, violence and war, and the politicalization of science. Our current economic situation, since we are the future of Kaynes’s past, is indeed prosperous compared wtih 1930 if not quite so bright as he hoped.

A Half-Full Future?

Let me follow Keynes’s example in talking about the future of wine. Wine has endured for thousands of years and survived many dark periods, so it is not unreasonable to imagine a bright future for wine as both culture and industry. But there are obstacles to be avoided.

In my recent book Wine Wars II I propose that wine must deal with a triple crisis: environmental crisis, economic crisis, and identity crisis. The identity crisis is most relevant to today’s topic. Wine is an alcoholic beverage — the fermentation process doesn’t just add alcohol, it transforms the grape juice in miraculous ways. If, as I think is possible, wine becomes defined by its alcoholic content — grape juice alcohol the way that hard seltzer is fizzy water alcohol — then something very important is lost and wine’s future grows dark.

Another obstacle — and this allows me to circle back to the generational issue — is occasion. Opening a bottle of wine is an occasion (there is both an element of ceremony in the cork-pull and the more-than-single-serving quantity to deal with) and must align with occasions in consumer life.

Mind the Gap?

Dinner is an occasion sufficient to pull a cork at our house, but that’s not true for everyone. I wonder how much of the wine that is sold is consumed with meals versus other types of occasions and how this might differ for different demographics?  The wine industry would be wise to try to adapt to the occassions that younger consumers (and older consumers, too) actually experience rather than the ones we imagine they should enjoy.

An article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal suggests that at least one big beer company is rethinking its marketing plans in light of the threat of recession. Home consumption is rising at the expense of on-premise, for example, so marketing will work to put beer at the center of home and family occasions. Smart thinking!

A recent Financial Times column by Gillian Tett provides food for thought regarding Generation Z attitudes. The article doesn’t talk about wine, but maybe there are implications for wine. Tett cites studies that show that Gen Z workers demand more control over work environments than employers are used to. If they can’t customize the job, they prefer to quit, one expert suggests. Dangerous to generalize, of course, but it makes me think about how the wine experience compares with, say, cocktails in this context?

The generation gap is complex. Lots of food (and drink) for thought!

Margins? What Margins? The Big Squeeze in Winegrowing 2023

February 7, 2023 By in economic crisis, South Africa, Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine markets 7 Comments

I was talking with a group of California winegrowers just before the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium‘s State of the Industry session a couple of weeks ago and the stories they told me made me understand that The Big Squeeze, which I wrote about around this time last year, is still going strong.

Margins? What Margins?

The Big Squeeze? Many winegrowers have for some time been caught in a squeeze between rising costs and stagnant or sometimes even falling wine grape prices. Your margins are getting squeezed, I asked? Margins? What margins? they replied. Margins got squeezed away some time ago.

The Big Squeeze is significant and not limited to the United States. When I travel the world speaking to wine industry groups I will ask quietly about how the growers are doing? Often the reply is a shrug, downward look, and slow shaking of the head. Not so good, they tell me.

South Africa is a good case in point. Every year Vinpro, the important South African winegrowers organization, reports its survey of vineyard profitability. Rico Basson, Vinpro’s executive director, released the results for 2022 at the annual Nedbank Vinpro Information Day last month and the chart above summaries the conclusions.

Unsustainable Operations

Only about 9% of the South African winegrowers were earning a sustainable level of income per hectare — a high enough return to support long-term investment. Fifty percent were caught in a low profit zone, with positive net income, but less than they might earn elsewhere. (If you remember your Econ 101 definitions, this would be positive accounting profit but zero or negative economic profit — it’s an opportunity cost thing.)

The actual level of income per vineyard hectare (the green line in the chart above) is far below the sustainable income level (black line). Fully 41% of the South African winegrowers in the survey were either at break-even (3%) or bleeding red ink (38%). The average return on investment in 2022 was minus 2.4% and the gap between costs and revenues was widening. That, my friends, is a really big squeeze.

Volume or Value?

Which is the better strategy to escape the squeeze: volume or value? Do you push to raise vineyard yields or  try to raise price though lower yields  but higher value?

I don’t know the answer for South Africa today, but when I spoke at the Vinpro event a few  years ago the answer was clear. The higher the yields, the better the chance for success. Sacrificing quantity for quality didn’t consistently pay, I was told, because South African wine found it hard to break through the premium price-point ceiling on international markets. Most producers couldn’t manage to raise price enough to compensate for the higher unit costs. Ouch!

I told this South Africa story to my winegrower friends and they shook their heads. Pretty much the same here, they said. Given the limits on what buyers would pay for their grapes, the best way to profits was to increase yields to, say, 12 tons per acre or more depending on grape variety.

Limited Yields, Limited Opportunity

But there were two problems,, I was told. First, some buyers won’t go along — they were concerned about loss of quality at the higher yield, although modern viticulture practices make it possible to raise yields without loss of quality possible in certain circumstances. So in these situations raising yields is a non-starter.

And it isn’t always possible to get yields up to an economically sustainable level because many older vineyards just aren’t set up for that and have built-in limits that were OK when they were planted years ago, but make life difficult today.

So what are you supposed to do, one grower asked me, if you have an older vineyard that needs to be renewed at high cost? This is where the unsustainable profitability issue really hits. Do make a big bet that the Big Squeeze will loosen up in the future? My winegrower friend was less than optimistic.

Unsustainable?

Not all vineyards bleed red ink, of course. The situation is different in different winegrowing regions with different market conditions and vineyards of different ages and farming set-ups. But the problem remains. As I reported last year, wine prices have fallen in real terms recently and one result has been to make the already-serious vineyard squeeze even worse.

When you talk about sustainable vineyards, people naturally think about environmental sustainability. But economic stability is an issue, too.

Game Over for the Wine Game?

January 31, 2023 By in Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine markets 4 Comments

What’s ahead for the wine industry in 2023 and beyond? Speaking at the “State of the Industry” session at last week’s Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento, I suggested that the challenges our bvindustry faces today are not unique to wine, so perhaps we can find clues by looking outside the wine box.

The particular case I examined in the short time available was the board game industry. Board games? Yes, you know, games like Risk, Life, and Clue. Once upon a time board games were so popular that they were part of the fabric of life. Then the board game industry was battered by forces that I think are analogous to some of the headwinds we in the wine industry have experienced.

Ready Player One

The story of the fall and rise of board games is interesting if we think about it in terms of similar patterns in the wine industry. Board games (and wine) suffered four big blows in recent years. First came in the form of demographic and socio-economic change. Generations shifted — the players got both older (aging Boomers) and younger (Gen X, Gen Z), too. The faces around the table were different and the opportunities to gather together were different. That vintage Life board game box shown above isn’t what life looks like today.

Then video games hit the scene. Video games were the “craft beer” of board game industry — a competitive product that was new and innovative. Innovation was the name of the game: there was always another video game to try. Board games (and wine) were not so innovative and suffered as players looked for the next big thing.

Next came smart phones, which were sort of the hard seltzer of the board game industry. You could play games on smart phones, of course, but the fact is that “gamification” became a general strategy, as app developers sought to keep users glued to their screens (and then to track their every move). Apps that had nothing to do with video games used “gamification” techniques. If you find yourself constantly checking smartphone apps, you may be playing a game without knowing it.

A lot of the time, if I’m honest, my smartphone is sort of like the TV series Seinfeld, “a show about nothing” that I watch again and again. That’s hard seltzer to me and products like hard seltzer had sort of the same impact on wine that the smart phone had on board games.

Finally the covid pandemic struck, which hit both board games and the wine industry hard. Gathering together for board game play or to share wine in social settings were both suddenly problematic. For wine, restaurant and tasting room sales channels dried up.

Game Over for Games?

The situation for board games looked particularly bad because, if you’ve followed the story so far, you can see that a whole generation has grown up in a different game environment than before. It was hard to believe that board games could ever stage a come back. Game over for them. But they did it! Board games are back! How?

A recent Washington Post article by Jacvlyn Peiser suggests that the board game renaissance is a combination of old and new. The old virtues of board games — the social and educational elements (which I talked about in more depth in my talk) — have not really changed, but are perhaps now a bit more precious to us because we had to live without them during the pandemic. And there is also a new side in that innovative game designers are finding new ways to connect with users and their interests and needs.

But it’s the classic appeal that is the foundation of the innovative surge. The Washington Post article concludes with a comment that board games endure because they get friends and family together to share experiences and make memories. What could be better?

Everything’s Better with Wine?

Well, of course, board games are better with wine (for those of legal drinking age). Wine and social gatherings are perfect parings. There are even board games for wine enthusiasts. Did you know that there is now a special Napa Valley Monopoly edition?

How realistic is the Napa Monopoly game, which is based on Napa Valley properties in the same way that the original game was modeled on Atlantic City, New Jersey?  I checked on Amazon and the classic Monopoly was selling for $11 while the Napa version was around $44. A four-times Napa premium seems pretty realistic to me, don’t you think?

Today’s gamers haven’t given up their screens, but they have rediscovered the pleasures of in-person interactions and board game sales have benefited. That’s a good thing.

Since I used board games as a way to think about wine, this was an optimistic result. Perhaps the virtues and pleasures of wine, which have sustained it as culture and industry for thousands of years, have not suddenly lost their value, either. Perhaps, as the clouds lift, wine’s classic appeal with become even more apparent.

The Game Endures

It seems to me that the wine industry, following the board game analogy,  needs to continue to innovate, to reach out to consumers with different interests and lower specific levels of commitment than before. But in doing that, it is important not to forget the values and virtues that have made wine an enduring part of life.

It is reported that Bernard Arnault, the head of LVMH and the current holder of the “World’s Richest Man”  title, once met with Steve Jobs, the visionary creator of the Apple electronics phenomenon. Do you think people will still be buying your iPhones in 30 years, Arnault asked Jobs. Don’t know, Jobs said honestly.

Do you think people will will still drink your Dom Perignon Champagne in 30 years, Jobs asked in reply? Yes, Arnault said confidently. The wine will endure. There will be Dom Perignon for generations. Jobs agreed. So do I.

Wine Hits the Language Barrier

January 10, 2023 By in Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine critics, wine education, wine markets 7 Comments

What do we talk about when we talk about wine? How does the way we talk about wine affect the way we think about it? Does the language of wine create a barrier to entry for consumers?

Last week’s Wine Economist focused on what we say about wine in terms of the information revealed on the label. The European Union is implemented new regulations that will require wine to be more like other consumer products with respect to ingredient lists and nutritional analysis.

Should the U.S. follow suit, either through regulation or via voluntary initiative? That’s a controversial question, for sure. Some worry that people will be less interested in wine if they know what’s really in the bottle. Others think it might work the other way.

Wine’s Language Barrier

But there is another concern that is in some ways even more basic — and might help account for the wine market malaise we all worry about. How does the way we talk about wine affect the way that we (and potential customers) think about it? This is the topic of a seminar that will take place in two weeks at the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento. Meg Maker will moderate a panel that includes Miguel de Leon, Erica Duecy, and Alicia Towns Franken on the topic of A New Lexicon for Wine. Here’s an excerpt from the description of the panel on the Unified’s program.

The best way to get to know a wine is to taste it. Another way is to talk about it. The wine industry relies on the ability of wine communicators to persuade consumers to taste, but today’s wine lexicon falls far short of its objectives.

What’s the problem with the way we talk about wine? The panel prompt outlines the problem.

For starters the vocabulary is heavily Eurocentric, reliant on metaphor and analogy unfamiliar to swaths of global wine lovers and curious newcomers. It also tends toward absolute pronouncements: “this wine is this” versus “this wine feels like this.” Formal wine education reinforces these protocols, perpetuating them for new generations of wine pros. The ever-popular numeric score says precisely zero about a wine’s aesthetic impact—even though that’s sometimes all you see. The net effect is both intimidating and gatekeeping to new wine drinkers, alienating them at a time when the industry tries to address its shrinking footprint.

Mastering the Dialect

There are of course several language of wine, not just one, as there are in most industries. There is the “inside”  language we use when talking with on- and off-premise accounts about price points and marketability. Then there is the “outside” voice we use when speaking to consumers directly along with the different dialects necessary to connect with different types of consumers such as investors, collectors, or relative beginners. One size does not fit all when it comes to the language of wine.

Language can be a plus or a minus when it comes to opening doors to wine.  Ironically, wine is not a very transparent product from the consumer point of view. It is difficult to know if what’s inside the bottle will make you happy until you taste it. But the idea of buying and opening that opaque multi-serving bottle can be intimidating, especially when prices are high relative to income and to other options.

Economists call wine an “experience good” — you won’t know if you’ll like it until you try it — hence the importance of tastings and the focus on tasting notes to simulate the tasting experience. This is why it is important to think clearly about how and what tasting notes say. Many wine consumers, I believe, are really interested in how the wine will make them feel. There are both intellectual and emotional responses, to be sure, but feeling trumps thinking for some of the people all of the time and for all of the people some of the time, don’t you think?

Tasting vs Feeling

If you ask people why they like Champagne, for example, they almost always talk about the way it makes them feel, not the details of the way it tastes. I did a tasting with some university students a few years ago and it taught me a lot. Champagne (or sparkling  wine generally) was something they all were familiar with from various family celebrations.  They knew it, liked it, and had good memories associated with it. But when they followed the usual protocols of formal tasting, they were surprised. It didn’t necessarily taste the way it had made them feel. Do you know what I mean?

Tasting notes that list a dozen or sometimes more flavors and aromas, many of them quite esoteric and requiring practice or training to detect, are only really useful to a few specialized consumers, but they are the lingua franca of wine. For a lot of people the lingo-equivalent of an emoji — expressing an emotion or feeling — would be more useful. Subjective descriptions of personality may communicate better than lists of seemingly objective properties.

Wine experts are expected to  master all the details (as this very clever video from Richard Hemming illustrates). Many wine consumers are more interested the harmonious melody than the many notes.

The Humpty Dumpty Problem

Deconstructing wine into its components (flavors and aromas in most cases) reflects a more general trend of thinking of products in terms of their parts rather than the whole. Hence the focus on lists of ingredients and nutritional elements rather than the qualities of the food or beverage itself. I call it the Humpty Dumpty problem. If we insist on breaking product experience into pieces, we can’t be sure that customers Ieven with help from the King’s horses and men) can put them together again.

For wine, as for many other products, it is actually the balance of forces and they way the whole comes together that is the key feature. In Humpty Dumpty terms, consumers are interested in the egg and we keep talking about the pieces as if they are what matters.

Given wine’s intimidating language, it is perhaps no surprise that retailers have adopted a sort of least-common denominator approach to talking about wine. I’m thinking about the “shelf talkers” that hang below wines on store shelves. Shelf talkers come in many forms, but the most common are the simplest. Many supply an expert’s numerical score (JamesSuckling.com 93, for example) while others simply announce a discounted price.

Shelf-talker language may or may not be better than nothing, but its wide use perhaps reflects the inability to speak to consumers in other ways with any consistent success.

And the Solution Is …

Wine, by its very nature, can get lost in translation and there is no simple solution to this problem. But there are steps to take to lower the barriers for current and potential wine enthusiasts. The Unified Wine & Grape Symposium’s session mentioned at the top of this column is a worthwhile beginning. We in the industry need to think critically about the languages of wine and resolve to be more effective.

And I think it is useful to consider the challenge of talking about the emotional impact of wine. In this regard I am inspired by the haiku tasting notes written by W. Blake Gray.  I find that they make me stop, think, and try to imagine the wine.

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Can it be true that the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium is only two weeks away? Hope to see you all there. I will be moderating the annual  “State of the Industry” panel on the morning of Wednesday, January 25.

Wine Economist 2022: What Were the Most-Read Stories of the Year?

December 27, 2022 By in wine, wine markets Leave a comment

2022 was a challenging year and it is understandable that many of us are focused on looking ahead to 2023. But before the bells of New Year ring, let’s take one last glance backwards to get a feeling for what Wine Economist readers were concerned about in 2022.

The table above lists the top ten posts and pages of the almost 900 articles on the Wine Economist website, ranked by number of views in 2022 through December 26. The articles marked with a blue bar were originally published this year. The rest are from the archives, which stretch back to 2007.  Aside from the home page and Mike Veseth’s profile, the most-read stories divide themselves into two groups.

The first are stories about powerful brands and what makes them so durable, with a focus on 19 Crimes, Mateus Rosé, and Blue Nun. What do these wines have in common? Not very much, except of course for the lessons to be learned from the success of their brands. Will we still be talking about 19 Crimes in 30 or 40 years? I guess we will  have to hang around and see!

The other major theme, no surprise given this newsletter’s focus, is the state of the global economy and its impact on the wine industry. Readers were worried about inflation, global trade, and wine industry consolidation. Will these concerns persist in 2023? Will new worries come to the fore? Or will good news stories dominate?

That’s all she wrote for 2022, Wine Economist fans. See you in 2023!

Portuguese Native Wine Grapes and the New Age of Discovery

November 29, 2022 By in Portuguese wine, wine, wine markets 2 Comments

One of the wonderful things about wine is its ability to surprise and delight — there are always new wines made with unusual wine grapes and from unexpected places to enjoy. A person who is bored with wine, given this great discovery potential, is bored with life!

Portuguese explorers were at the forefront of the “Age of Discovery” that opened the world to economic and cultural exchange. Portugal’s impact on global trade was astonishing considering that it is and was a relatively small country hanging on Europe’s western-most edge.

Now I propose a reverse movement with respect to Portuguese wine and its native grape varieties. The New Age of Discovery, as I call it, calls for wine enthusiasts to take deep dives into Portugal’s many wine regions and especially to explore native wine grape varieties with unfamiliar names but intriguing flavors and unlimited potential.

Discovering Portugal Wine Diversity

Maybe that’s why Italian wines frequently appear on The Wine Economist page (although this is a global wine blog, for example, it was recently named one of the 40 best Italian wine blogs and pages). The wine map of Italy is a colorful mosaic that invites close inspection. But Italy is not alone is this regard. It is time to explore in more depth the diversity that Portugal offers.

Vini Portugal sent us three wines selected to illustrate three sides of Portuguese wine diversity. The Villa Alvor Singular Moscatel-Galego-Roxo 2020, for example, comes from the Algarve region, which is better known for sunny beaches than lush grapevines.  The Antonio Maçanita Tinta Carvalha 2020, an Alentejo wine, is made from grape varieties now quite rare, but that once dominated the region. This wine brings them back from near-extinction. Finally, the Esporão Reserva Tinto 2019 is an interesting hybrid from a famous Alentejo producer, blending indigenous grapes with international varieties such as Syrah and Cabernet Sauvignon. It tells the story of the winery and the region, too.

Unexpected Field Blend

Knowing of our interest in native grape varieties, António Graça, the head of Research and Development at Sogrape Vinhos, arranged for us to receive examples of Casa Ferreirinha Castas Escondidas, a field blend from an old vineyard at Quinta do Seixo in the Douro.

The grape varieties include such unfamiliar names as Touriga-Fêmea, Tinta Francisca, Bastardo and Marufo, which are sometimes included in Port wine blends, but rarely make themselves known in unfortified wines. Tinta Amarela, Tinto Cão, Touriga Nacional, Touriga Francesa and vinha velha are also part of this unique blend.

Now it would be easy to dismiss a wine like this as a “kitchen sink” product made up of odds and ends, but that is clearly not the case here as you will know immediately when you taste it. It is really true that what grows together often goes together, and the combination of these wine grapes in the talented hands of Sogrape Douro winemaker Luís Sottomayor results in a distinct and delicious statement of terroir. We found the wine to be complex, balanced, and elegant with a finish that went on and on. An experience as much as a wine. Fantastic.

Quiet! Old Vines at Work

António writes that, “We have been surveying our old vineyards and inventoried all varieties present in that vineyard, plant by plant in an effort to identify the patterns of the historical field blend. This wine is the result of the knowledge we gained from that work which we extended now to other old vineyards we own in order to gain knowledge that will assist us in adapting to a warmer climate in an already warm region.”

“This has led us to develop new vines and wines using blends or single variety wines made from minority varieties, some representing less than 50 hectares as total planted acreage today. The revelation of their sensory aspects has been very reassuring. Examples are Touriga Femea (literally «female Touriga»), Tinta Francisca in the Douro, Sercialinho in Bairrada or Encruzado and Alfrocheiro in Dao.”

Portuguese winemakers have a lot of material to work with in this new age of discovery. The official wine grape registry lists 343 native varieties so far — incredible diversity for a relatively small region.

An Age for Discovery

When I first visited Portugal and began tasting wines made from the native grape varieties, I saw the unfamiliar names as an obstacle to their success on the global market. It made sense to me, I wrote, to market the wines under proprietary brands or in blends with familiar international grape varieties in order to avoid erecting another barrier to entry for consumers new to the country’s wines.

But things have changed and my opinion has changed with them. The world is re-discovering Portugal as a place to visit or live along with its history, cuisine, and of course its wine. It is the new Age of Discovery and my, but there is a lot to discover in Portuguese wine.

What’s Ahead for U.S. Wine? Searching for a Crystal Ball

November 15, 2022 By in economic crisis, wine, wine markets 5 Comments

We are starting to gear up for the State of the Industry session at the 2023 Unified Wine & Grape Symposium and it looks like we will have a lot to talk about. The challenges the wine industry faces are significant and this year’s expert panel (Danny Brager, Glenn Proctor, Dr. Liz Thach MW, Jeff Bitter) is well-prepared to help us navigate the wine-dark seas.

Everyone wants to know what’s in the future — what will the U.S. wine market look like a a year? Five years? Ten years? Prediction is difficult for a variety of reasons, however, not least because the wine economy is embedded in the national and global economies, which are themselves full of uncertainty these days.

Looking for a Crystal Ball

Back in the days when I was writing university-level economics textbooks I told students looking for clues about the future to consult what are called leading economic indicators. The idea is that there are a lot of economic statistics available. Some tell you what has already happened (these are the lagging indicators), some give you an idea of what’s going on right now (coincident indicators), and a few offer a glimpse of possible future trends (leading indicators).

The number of new building permits and housing starts are leading indicators, for example. Once a permit is issued or construction begun, that sets in motion a chain reaction of economic activity that extends out into the future.

Durable goods orders are another leading indicator of economic activity in general, but they speak to attitudes and expectations. Durable goods, by definition, are long-lasting and need not be re-purchased every week or month. If consumers and business increase durable goods purchases, then it suggests that they are optimistic about the future and willing to make an investment now rather than wait for the future.

One economist, famous for his mastery of esoteric details, used to focus in particular on sales of new brooms on the theory that an old broom will always do if you are concerned about future finances. Buying a new broom is therefore a clear statement of economic optimism. That makes sense when you think about brooms as a gateway durable good.

It is maybe a little bit disturbing to learn that Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chair, once identified sales of men’s underwear as an important leading indicator. Really? Apparently, underwear sales are pretty steady, so any blip one way or another says something significant about consumer expectations. If you want to start an interesting conversation, try asking your male friends how long it has been since they re-stocked their underwear drawer. “Why are you asking?”  People are so suspicious!

Where is Wine Headed?

There are many other recognized leading indicators for the overall economy — the yield curve, for example — but there isn’t room here today to talk about them because I’m interested in the wine industry and I wonder what statistics might be particular useful in forecasting the future of wine sales?

One approach is to use the chain-reaction theory. Where does the decision to buy more or less wine begin? What early indicator can we monitor today that will reveal something about how much wine, what kind of wine, and at what price consumers will choose in the future? Corkscrews? Well, I suppose that’s a wine-specific durable good, but I don’t think tracking corkscrew or even wine glass sales is going to help much.

Recently I stumbled upon news that I think is relevant to the “wine leading indicator” search, even if the data is not exactly what I am looking for. The news? Costco has decided not to raise its membership fees this year. Here’s why I think the Costco news could be important.

The Costco Effect

Lots of people enjoy wine and it is sold in lots of ways and places. But, as we all know, the core wine market is surprisingly narrow. When you take away the U.S. consumers who don’t consume any alcohol (about 35% according to a Wine Market Council study a few years ago) and then those who use alcohol but not wine (21%), the residual is surprisingly narrow.

While 29% of consumers buy wine a few times and month or year, the industry actually relies on a relatively small number (15%) of high frequency wine drinkers who pull corks or unscrew caps pretty much every week. The demographics of this group — and especially the high-end buyer subset — is key to the future of American wine.

If you want to know what these consumers look like, I think a good place to start is by going to your closest Costco warehouse store. I am not saying that the Costco demographic matches up perfectly with wine demand or that purchases in other sales channels are unimportant. It is just that the relatively affluent user base at Costco, the people who are willing and able to pay the $60 to $120 annual membership fee here in the United States, are a group worth watching closely. They buy lots of stuff at Costco, including a surprisingly large amount of wine given the limited number of stores.

Now you might think that tracking Costco wine sales would be good economic indicator, but it doesn’t serve our purpose here because it would be a lagging or maybe coincident economic indicator and not the forward-looking insight needed. But there is one bit of Costco data that I think it useful — and it is flashing yellow (but not yet red) right now: the annual membership fee.

Hot Dogs and Rotisserie Chickens?

Most prices at Costco rise and fall with market forces (the costs of rotisserie chickens and the hot dog meal are notable exceptions having been fixed for years). The membership fee is a critical factor at Costco. The fees themselves account for a substantial amount of the company’s net profit and the renewal rate is high — over 90 percent. Costco typically adjusts its membership fee about once every five years, according to news reports, and the last time they did was in 2017. So no one would have been surprised if a rise was announced in 2022.

But this time around the Costco gurus looked hard at their customer base … and blinked. They decided to pass on a fee increase, which could mean a lot of things but might mean that they believe even their affluent member base is feeling the economic heat. And that’s not good news for wine, since these are the customers driving the U.S. market these days.

Is this the leading indicator for wine sales I was looking for? No, it isn’t, so I am still looking. Ideas? Please let me know. In the meantime, while as a Costco member I am glad that the annual fee is frozen this time around, it will be good news for the wine trade when Costco decides that their affluent, wine-drinking patrons are secure enough to tolerate a rise in rates.