Australian Wine Outlook: Modified Rapture

“Modified rapture” is a line from Gilbert and Sullivan’s comic opera The Mikado. The dialogue as originally written was “Rapture!” but the actor who played Nanki-Poo was apparently a little too enthusiastic about it during rehearsals and Gilbert kept unsuccessfully asking him to tone it down. (You will understand why the rapture was incomplete if you view the YouTube video above.)

Finally, in complete frustration, Gilbert barked, “Modified rapture!” as a stage direction. And that’s exactly what the actor said, taking it literally as a text revision. Modified rapture, indeed! And it became a permanent part of this entertaining scene.

Dutch Disease Dilemna

Modified  rapture – that’s my reaction to the good news about the Australian dollar (AUD). The Australian wine industry has suffered mightily from the “Dutch Disease,” which is what happens when a boom in one sector of the economy causes an over-valued currency that makes other sectors less competitive.

Exports to China, especially mineral exports, have been the boom sector and they have pushed the Australian dollar to incredible highs relative to the U.S. dollar.  This has created a dilemma – pass the foreign exchange costs along to foreign buyers and you risk losing sales. Absorb the foreign exchange impact and margins shrink and sometimes dip into the red.

oz4

Rapture: the short term view

The over-valued Aussie dollar has affected all segments of the Australian wine industry, but bulk wine sales have been perhaps the most impacted because international competition is so fierce for commodity wines. Bulk wine sales account for about 45% of New World wine exports, so lots of business (and grower incomes) hang in the balance when the exchange rate shifts by even a penny or two.

Good News: A Short Sharp Shock

So the recent fall in the Australian dollar as shown above must be greeted with joy by Australian growers and producers. Although it was expected that the AUD would depreciate eventually, I’m not sure anyone would have predicted such a “short  sharp shock” (to use another Gilbert and Sullivan line).

What caused the change? Well, Australians might say that it hardly matters – good news is good news.  But good news doesn’t always last as the graph below indicates. This isn’t the first time that the AUD has tumbled and we can’t be entirely sure that it will not rebound (hence my “modified” description). And although the recent trend is welcome it must be noted that the AUD is a long way from its value back in early 2009, when it was even cheaper relative to the dollar than the 85-cent valuation that one analysis has predicted.

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Modified rapture: the longer view

The AUD Trifecta

As I see it, the sudden shift is the result of a trifecta of effects. The first and most important is the slowing of the Chinese economy, with the resultant decrease in demand for Australian minerals. That’s one. The second is the shift in Japanese monetary policy. Abenomics, as it is called, is pumping up Japan’s money supply in an attempt to jump-start the economy.

This has driven down the yen’s value, which encourages some investors to repatriate funds previously placed abroad to take advantage of the fact that each host country Australian dollar (for example) now yields a larger home country yen profit. A good time to cash in your chips and bring your money  home.

Finally, the U.S. Federal Reserve has announced that it is “tapering” its expansionary monetary policy, which has boosted U.S. interest rates and perhaps caused some “carry trade” international investment to shift to the U.S. from other countries (like Australia, for example).

So the result is good news and I think it might last, but it is important to realize that the trend could be reversed if China’s growth rate picks up (as most people hope it will) or if U.S. and Japanese monetary polices change dramatically. Fingers crossed — there is a lot on the line!

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Foreign exchange historical tables are from Oanda.com.

I couldn’t resist adding this classic Mikado video — the “short sharp shock” appears at about the two minute mark. Enjoy.

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