Monthly Archives: January 2024

The Case for Cautious Optimism about the Future of Wine

January 30, 2024 By in economic crisis, Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine markets 4 Comments

Sue and I have just returned from the 30th edition of the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento. The Unified is the largest wine industry gathering in the Western Hemisphere with about 12,000 attendees over three days and 900 trade show exhibitors. If you want to take the pulse of the American wine industry, this is the place to go.

So how is the industry’s health? Well, if you go by the economic indicators such as sales trends (more about this next week), the patient is in bad shape.  There was bad news in the wine press and the expectation that more bad news was coming (it did).

Economic Pessimism

The situation reminded me of an essay called “The Economic Possibilities of Our Grandchildren” that the English economist John Maynard Keynes wrote in the depths of the Great Depression. “We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism,” the essay began. “It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress … is over; that the rapid improvement in the standard of life is now going to slow down …

“I believe that this is a wildly mistaken interpretation of what is happening to us. We are suffering not from the rheumatics of old age, but from the growing pains of over-rapid changes, from the painfulness of readjustment from one economic period to another.”

I quote these lines here because I think that we are today also suffering from an attack of economic pessimism, both in the wine industry and more generally. We tend to look down and to look back, not ahead, and we avert our eyes from good news (about inflation or unemployment or, occasionally, politics) when it unexpectedly appears.

The only bright lights we allow ourselves to see (the Barbie movie, Taylor Swift) are ridiculously popular because of their novelty and scarcity. We look like the drab men and women of Keynes’s day. How sad.

I am part of this environment, of course, and because I am an economist and therefore a licensed deliverer of bad news, I am also part of the problem. I expected to meet a pessimistic wine industry at the Unified Symposium and that’s what I found. But only at first.

Cautious Optimism

Gloom and doom. But then in casual conversations Sue and I discovered a streak of cautious optimism that we didn’t expect. A friend we met at the registration counter who is involved in winery recruiting said she felt that hiring had turned a corner. Another friend who works in bottle closures was optimistic, too. He accepted the current problems but saw a path forward and was moving with confidence. This was not the first crisis he’d seen and he didn’t think it would be the last. Talking with him was a moment of quiet inspiration.

One winery owner was frustrated by all the bad news in the air because she worried about self-fulfilling prophecies. If we think the future will be dark and act accordingly then it will indeed be dark. Someone must turn on a light or at least acknowledge that the light switch is still on the wall.

Sue was working the trade show floor while I was moderating the State of the Industry session. She reported that it seemed like lots of business was getting done. There was a record number of trade show exhibitors and thousands of people in the aisles shopping for equipment and services or checking out what’s new. It was not a dismal scene, she told me. And it was still buzzing when I got there a couple of hours later after the press conference, even though a lot of people were at lunch.

Don’t Look Back!

What should we make of this uncomfortable combination of bad news and hopeful sentiments? In my remarks to the State of the Industry audience, I invoked the great American philosopher (and baseball pitcher) Satchel Paige, who warned, “Don’t look back, something might be gaining on you.”

How you see the future depends upon how you look at the past, which is your reference point. And that’s a dangerous thing because the past can be different depending upon your viewpoint.

If you look at today’s wine industry from the viewpoint of 2008 (as I discussed in last week’s Wine Economist), then you can’t help but be disappointed. The continued rapid growth that the industry expected then has failed to materialize in general. However, there are obvious market segments (thank you, New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc) that have grown beyond expectations.

But if instead, you look back 30 years, to the very first Unified Symposium, then your perspective is quite different. Seen from 1994, the wine market of 2024 is almost unimaginably prosperous. Wine has grown in every dimension: quantity, value, quality, number of producers and brands, global reach. It’s not where we thought we’d be back in 2008, but it is pretty damned amazing from the 1990s perspective.

The fact that the wine industry today is somewhere between the smaller market that they expected in 1994 and the much bigger one projected in 2008 should give us pause. There is a path forward from here; it is not without costs, challenges, and risk, but it is there for those who take it.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not denying the seriousness of the problems wine faces. Remember that I’ve been the frequent bearer of bad news for several years now. But cautious optimism is justified. The road ahead? Come back next week for more thoughts.

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Come back next week for more about what we learned at the Unified Symposium. In the meantime, follow this link for a pdf of Keynes’s essay.

A Look Back at the Future of Wine

January 23, 2024 By in Future Wine Project, Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine markets Leave a comment

The Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, North America’s largest wine industry conference and trade show, is happening this week in Sacramento, California. It is an exciting event where people from throughout the industry (and around the world) gather to share concerns and ideas about the challenges facing wine today.

Questions about the future of wine are never far below the surface of these discussions, which perhaps might explain why, in the run-up to the Unified, a very old Wine Economist column has suddenly started to get more clicks. The column was called “The Future of Wine” and it appeared in 2008 when The Wine Economist was in its first year as an online newsletter.

I am republishing “The Future of Wine?” now not because it got everything right, but rather because it illustrates how much recent events weigh on our vision of the road ahead and how hard it is to guess the future.

Please read all the way to the end if you have time because I think Kenneth Boulding’s point cited there is worth considering now and always. Come back next week when I will get out the crystal ball once again and speculate about the future of wine in the context of what I hear and see at this year’s Unified Symposium.

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Wine Economist “The Future of Wine?” May 25, 2008

What will the world of wine look like in 50 years? A look in the crystal ball.

What if the Chinese were French?

A journalist with a Brazilian newsweekly called me on Thursday to ask for help with a story on China. The magazine is doing a sort of “worst case scenario” report on the potential impact of China’s economic growth on world markets. What would happen to oil prices, for example, if the Chinese used as much fuel per capita as Americans do? Yikes, that would be a lot of drivers using a lot of gas and it would send oil prices through the roof. What would happen if Chinese consumers generated as much waste and pollution per person as people in the West? Once again, the global effects would be dramatic.

What would happen, the journalist asked me, if Chinese tastes changed and they drank as much wine per capita as the current world champtions, the French? Well, that is a very interesting question, even if it isn’t a very realistic one. Annual Chinese consumption of wine is about a half-liter per capita and rising, according to my copy of The Global Wine Statistical Compendium (and a lot of that wine isn’t grape wine, as I wrote in The China Wine Syndrome). Wine consumption in France, on the other hand, is 55 liters per person and falling (it was more than 120 liters per capita in the early 1960s). The figure is about 8.5 liters per capita for the U.S. and 20 liters per capita for Great Britain.

It is hard to imagine how Chinese wine consumption could rise to the current French level. Heck, it is unlikely that the French will sustain their current level for long. But isn’t entirely out of the question that Chinese consumpion could rise to the world average, which is about 3.5 liters per capita per year. That’s a lot smaller increase than the Brazillian reporter was concerned with, but it would still have a huge impact on global wine markets. Much of the increase would probably be met by higher Chinese production; China is already a major wine producer — smaller than Chile but larger than Portugal in total production. But the global effects would be substantial and prices would surely rise.

We can already see some indication of the potential “China Effect” in the market for fine wine. Everyone seems to think that at least some of the rise in Bordeaux prices in recent years is due to Asian and especially Chinese purchases. This trend seems likely to accelerate now that Hong Kong has eliminated its high tax on wine transactions so that it can become the auction hub of the Asian wine market. The latest Wine Advocate reports prices of 2005 Bordeaux that reach stratospheric levels — $500, $1500, $2500 per bottle! This is what happens when a global market focuses on an object of speculation — huge rents (excess returns) are created. As China (and India, too) become more completely integrated into global markets for products like fine wine, these rents will likely rise higher still.

The View from London

The Brazilians are not the only ones interested in the future of wine. Berry Bros. & Rudd (BBR), the London fine wine house, recently celebrated its 310th anniversary with the release of the Future of Wine Report written by four of their top wine buyers (Alun Griffiths MW, Jasper Morris MW, Simon Field MW and David Berry Green). It makes pretty interesting reading if you are interested in what wine markets might look like in 2058.

I say wine markets (plural) because BBR correctly recognizes that there is not one wine market but many interrelated ones. The fine wine market, BBR predicts, will see the rise of China and India as important factors in terms of both demand and supply. “I absolutely think China will be a fine wine player rivalling the best wines from France,” writes Jasper Morris. Britain will become an important producer of fine wines, too, perhaps especially Champagne-like sparkers.

Wine prices will soar even higher, according to the report. “If values increase by 15% per annumn, as they have been doing recently, a case of 2005 Ch. Lafite-Rothschild, currently available for £9,200. could be worth just shy of £10 mllion by 2050,” according to Simon Staples.

The forecast changes are more dramatic in the volume wine market. China will be the world’s largest wine producer. Global warming will shift wine production from France to Eastern Europe and from Napa Valley to Canada. Australia, the report speculates, could see a collapse of its volume wine industry if recent droughts persist. Goodbye Yellow Tail. Hello boutique producers in cooler, wetter areas like Tasmania.

Brands will become even more important in the volume business, BBR suggest. “In 50 years, consumers will ask for wine by the brand name or flavour and won’t know, or care, where it has come from. Grapes will be genetically modified to change a wine’s taste,” according to Jasper Morris, “and producers will add artificial flavourings to create a style wanted by consumers.” Wait — OMG I think I drank those wines back in the 1970s when I was in grad school!

Bottles and corks? They’re history. Corks will disappear because they are inefficient — the contamination rate is too high. Bottles are heavy and environmentally problematic. Tetra pak containers (like the ones used in today’s French Rabbit wines) and other sustainable packaging systems will prevail for volume wine.

The Future of Wine?

So what should we think of these visions of the future of wine? Economists like to say that prediction is difficult, especially about the future, so long range forecasts need to be taken for the educated guesses that they are.

Some forecasts, will be wrong because they are more or less simple straight line extrapolations (How much wine would the Chinese drink if they were French? How much will fine wine costs if its price compounds at the current rate?). It seems to me that simple projections are usually wrong because they are sensitive to initial conditions. Who is to say if long term trends will match those of the recent past?

Some predictions, like the £10 million case of wine, are extreme, but others are probably too conservative. The wine world has a way of surprising us — who in 1958 would have predicted the importance of Chile and Argentina today or the decline of consumption and production in France? People matter, too. People and their ideas are powerful forces that do not always respect historical trends, as refelction on the recent death of Robert Mondavi remind us.

Kenneth Boulding, the great 20th Century social scientist, once wrote a history of the future. He looked back to see what people in the past had said about the world just ahead. What he learned, he told me, was that when the future eventually rolled around, it never matched the predictions, it was always unexpected. The best way to prepare for the future, he concluded, was to prepare to be surprised. I expect this rather general advice applies as well to wine.

The “Uncork Ontario” Regional Wine Cluster Strategy

January 16, 2024 By in Canada, economic crisis, Economic impact, wine, wine markets 7 Comments

Although the U.S. economy performed surprisingly well in 2023, the wine business news columns were filled with gloom and doom as wine demand lagged behind the growth needed to sustain the industry. The problems affected the wine sector at all levels, but were most obvious in the vineyards. I’ve heard reports from all aroound the world of vineyards simply abandoned for lack of a market for the grapes or grubbed up and repurposed to a more profitable use.

2023 was a bad year for wine, but that’s not the whole story. Stagnant and falling demand has been here for more than ten years. And wine isn’t alone. I track the beer and luxury goods industries because I think they can tell us something about trends affecting wine. Beer is down, too. And all but the very top of the luxury goods market is suddenly stalled after a prosperous pandemic period.

There is one corner of the wine world where optimism can be found, however. Not the giddy optimism that comes when you don’t really appreciate how challenging conditions are, but the realistic optimism that comes when you have studied the problems and devised a plan to turn things around. Where is this magical place? Welcome to Ontario, Canada, and the dynamic Niagara wine region.

Uncork Ontario

The Canadian wine industry is concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia and has not been immune to the economic problems (declining demand) and natural crises (widespread wildfire damage in British Columbia) that face winegrowers all over the world. Significantly, they have decided that they need to try to take control of the situation to the extent possible. The result is a strategic plan called Uncork Ontario that is designed not just to stabilize the wine sector but to harness it into an engine of economic growth.

The first step in this process seems to have been the recognition that the various players could not achieve much on their own. They needed to work together to get traction. So an alliance of sorts was formed that combines Ontario Craft Wineries, an association of about 100 small- and medium-size wineries, and Wine Growers of Ontario, a broad group that includes some of the largest wineries, including the producers of that distinctive Canada product, IDB wine (for International-Domestic Blend).

This kind of alliance is not common because, while all the firms are in the same business and so share many broad interests, they often focus more on narrow strategies such as taking market share from each other instead of growing the overall market pie. Add to this the usual tension between larger firms that focus on commercial products versus smaller firms that want to see resources used to support their part of the market, and you can see why cooperation can be very hard to achieve.

The third partner is the Tourism Partnership of Niagara because wine tourism is an important economic force in a region located so close to major population centers in both Canada and the U.S. Tourism and wine are best friends, but cooperation is often limited because each group would prefer to focus on its narrow interests. An important informal fourth partner was soon enlisted, as I will explain below.

The Wine Industry Eco-system

Knowledge is power, so Team Ontario contracted with consultant Deloitte to produce a report titled “The Niagara Cluster: Ontario’s Untapped Economic Engine.”  The Niagara Cluster? Let me explain.

The Deloitte report uses an analytical framework made famous by Harvard economist Michael Porter, author of many books including Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. Prof. Porter’s key insight, which he developed by studying highly successful industries worldwide, was that successful firms don’t exist in a vacuum.

The greatest success is achieved when key firms are surrounded by effective supporting industries; have access to skilled talent, advanced research, and high-quality resources; face intense competition; and  must satisfy demanding customers. When conditions are right, the whole cluster grows as competition drives it ahead. Take away important factors, however, and things fall apart.

I like to think about Porter’s clusters as eco-systems (which is a term the Deloitte report also uses) and I am a fan of this kind of strategic analysis. (The Wine Economist reported on the Porter-style cluster analysis of the Walla Walla wine cluster in 2014.)

Strategic Partnerships

The Deloitte report makes interesting reading for anyone in the wine business for several reasons. First, it uses Porter’s analytical framework to break down the key elements of successful wine industry clusters. Second, it identifies “best practices” for each element, so there are specific targets to shoot for. Third, it frames the growth goals of the wine sector not in narrow terms (sell more wine!) but in terms of the broader economic impact on the communities involved. All of this is relevant to any wine region.

Two additional factors struck me as particularly important. First, the study doesn’t set an unrealistic goal such as “become the next Napa Valley” as sometimes happens. No, the report proposes that the Niagara region aims to be as important in its wine market (Ontario) as the Okanagan Valley wineries centered in Kelowna are to their region (British Columbia). The economic impact of such a development is large, both for wine and more generally.

But, the report found, one more partner was needed: the government. Ontario tax and regulation regimes discouraged the wine industry’s growth. That needed to change and, what’s more, the “best practices” model calls for the government to take an active role in promoting industry growth.

Time Has Come Today?

Incredibly, the provincial government seems to have heard this message and, although the situation is complicated and it is still early days, it looks like changes are coming, initially to the retail sales and taxation regimes. The introduction of retail competition is a major change and will really shake things up. The powerful Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) will retain its monopoly on spirits sales,  but open up competition for beer and wine. It won’t happen overnight, but the biggest market reforms since the end of Prohibition are on their way.

I need to learn more about what’s going on, so I will be heading to Niagara later this year to speak at the Ontario Craft Winery Conference. I am sure there is much more to the story and I may have made mistakes fitting the pieces together. But one thing is clear: even with all the gloom and doom in the wine sector, it is possible to make the case for growth.

But it doesn’t just happen. Everyone’s got to work together. And that’s hard. Ontario’s journey is just beginning, but they are off to a good start.

Argentina Wine, Economy, and the Chimera Effect

January 9, 2024 By in Argentina, economic crisis 2 Comments

Sue and I spent a pleasant week last month tasting our way through a group of very interesting wines provided by  Wines of Argentina (see the wine menu below). We scheduled the last of the wines, the Achaval Ferrer Quimera to taste with a meal of smoked brisket and roast vegetables on December 13. We were looking forward to the wine because of our great memories of visiting the winery on our first trip to Mendoza.

We awoke on December 13 to find that the Quimera tasting had taken on a broader meeting. After the markets closed the previous night, Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei, had taken a dramatic first step in his “shock therapy” treatment of the Argentine economy, cutting the official value of the peso in half over-night and doubling, in effect, the cost of any imported goods priced in dollars.

The Chimera Effect

Chimera (or Quimera in Spanish) has more than one meeting. Chimera can be a mythical creature that combines parts of several different animals in unexpected ways  (Americans might think jackalope, I suppose). Or it can refer to a mystical illusion of some sort, which hides a different reality. Mythical? Or mystical? That’s the Chimera effect.

Achaval Ferrer’s Quimera wine was inspired by mythical beasts. It’s a blend of wines from three very different vineyard places. Terroir, we learned on that trip, is very important in Argentina wine, especially the difference between higher- and lower-elevation sites. It is probably just my imagination, but seem to believe that this effect is magnified when older vines are involved. Probably a Chimera!

First, we tasted the barrel samples of the wines from each of the three different vineyards and they were very different indeed! And then we re-created the final blend and finally the finished bottled wine. It was quite an experience to have the Quimera wine come together in our glasses.

Economic Illusion

The economic policies of the new President, the  “anarcho-capitalist” economist Javier Milei, seem to be a combination of the two ideas of chimera, mythical and mystical. The terrible state of the Argentine economy is neither, however. Inflation is out of control, poverty is high and rising, and social tensions are even higher. The fact of the outsider Milei’s election is evidence of the political divisions that overwhelm the nation. Or at least this is how it looks from my long-distance vantage point.

Desperate measures have been employed in the past to try to hold things together. The most obvious symptom of this, to someone familiar with international finance, is the existence of multiple exchange rates. High inflation tends to push down a country’s currency value, which protects exports but increases the cost of imports. To try to avoid the higher import costs, which further fuel domestic inflation, Argentina’s previous government artificially propped up the peso (at high cost), creating a multiple exchange rate system. There was the official rate and then the unofficial rate, which was nearly half the dollar amount,

Exchange Rate Illusions

Then the government resorted to special limited-condition exchange rates to encourage specific activities or to  please particular interest groups. An exchange rate for agricultural goods, to encourage exports, for example. Another exchange rate for foreign tourists is to keep that industry going.  A very special exchange rate, I am told, for Argentines who traveled to see their national team win the FIFA World Cup last year! And finally, of course, a special exchange rate for wine exports, the Malbec peso. What was the peso worth? The answer was all of these exchange rates and none of them. What a chimera!

Multiple exchange rates, which are a Chimera in the mythical beat sense, give the illusion of competitiveness (the other kind of Chimera), but in general, they tend to create inefficiencies and uncertainty. No one who can avoid it is likely to use the peso under these circumstances. So Milei’s “radical” devaluation as noted in the headline above is more conventional than it might seem, lifting the veil and revealing reality.

When Sue and I first visited Argentina a dozen years ago, 100 pesos would buy about 5 U.S. dollars. Now 100 pesos buys about 12 U.S. cents at the official rate, and even less on the unofficial market even after the “shock therapy” evaluation.

Elementary, My Dear Watson

So what should we think about Argentina’s prospects? I am reminded of a comment from the fictional detective Sherlock Holmes. In solving a problem, he said, test each logical theory and eliminate them one by one. When you are done whatever answer you have left, no matter how unlikely, is the solution. Logic and illogic combined — a chimera theory, don’t you think?

It seems to me that Argentina has explored all the possible solutions to its problems and opted, at this point, for the illogical remaining possibility. President Milei combines radical rhetoric and outrageous behavior (he wielded a chainsaw at rallies) with remarkably conventional economic policies (the basic outline of his radical economic plan can be found in the IMF playbook).

It is not clear what will happen now. Milei wone the election, so he was a popular candidate, but his political base as president is questionable and there is strong resistance and opposition. A general strike to protest his programs is planned for later this month.

I am not a fan of President Milei, but perhaps this is the only remaining way forward. Fingers crossed that the short-term pain and disruption lead to longer-term stability and growth.

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Here are the Argentina wines we tasted for this report. We were attracted to these wines because, while they all feature Malbec, Argentina’s signature grape variety, each takes the wine in a different direction. All the wines were excellent, and a common thread of lifted acidity was easy to appreciate, but there was no cookie-cutter effect. Very interesting!
A blend of 50% Cabernet Franc, 45% Malbec, and 5% Casavecchia, a grape variety from Southern Italy that I didn’t know was grown in Argentina.  The balance of Cab Franc and Malbec plus the influence of high-elevation vineyards made this an elegant wine and at an affordable price point.
A blend of 45% Malbec + 18% Cabernet Franc + 18% Merlot + 19% Cabernet Sauvignon from three different vineyards. Grace and power are well balanced here. The Cab Franc and Merlot thoughtfully frame the Malbec and bring out bright notes.
A wine of place. One hundred percent Malbec from the Uco Valley vineyard. Pure Malbec intensity here. A different animal from the other wines.
A blend of 85% Malbec with 10% Cabernet Sauvignon and 5% Merlot. You can sense the BDX sensibility here.

Is 2024 the Year for Next-Level Cava?

January 3, 2024 By in Uncategorized 5 Comments

Did you celebrate the New Year with sparkling wine? If so, what kind did you choose? Sparkling wine is a crowded category, so you have lots of choices. Champagne? Prosecco? Maybe a Cap Classique wine from South Africa?

Cava vs Competition?

The Spanish Cava producers hope that you think of their wines when you make your sparkling wine shopping list, but it is a tough nut to crack with so much competition here in the U.S. market. Cava benefited from the rising sparkling tide in the last several years but has suffered from a “good value” reputation that hasn’t been a particular advantage in the premiumization era.

Cava has a bit of an identity crisis because it doesn’t exactly fit the usual ways we classify wines.  Cava isn’t a region (like Champagne or Prosecco) or a grape variety either.

Like Champagne, Cava has its secondary fermentation in the bottle (the “Classical Method”),  but you must never call it Spanish Champagne. Cava comes from Spain and is made in several regions, not one, so it is not in itself a geographic designation. Cava is made from native Spanish grape varieties, but it can also be made from Chardonnay and Pinot Noir, the grapes of Champagne, or some combination of them all. So it isn’t one of those “signature varietal” wines, either.

In the past, to some degree at least, the identity crisis encouraged Cava producers to compete based on price. Consumers who weren’t sure exactly what Cava was would buy it because it was both good and very good value, with sweet and sour results. The sweet? Rising sales to the tune of almost a quarter billion bottles. The sour? Low prices mean tight margins, especially for winegrowers. The grower squeeze has increased for Cava, as it has elsewhere, as rising costs meet retail price ceilings. Something’s got to give and the hope is that final prices can be pushed up.

Cava Steps Up

How do you raise prices and margins without losing the customers who come for good value? One solution, which producers in many regions are working to implement just now, is to build a quality ladder and encourage buyers to climb to the next level. In Prosecco-land, for example, the ladder starts with Prosecco DOC wines, moves up to  Prosecco Superiore Conegliano Valdobiaddene DOCG, then to the Rive-specific sites, and finally the top-shelf Cartizze wines.

Spanish wine drinkers are familiar with quality levels: Rioja, Rioja Reserva, Rioja Gran Reserva. And so Cava producers have created quality designations of their own. The categories based upon the length of bottle aging: Cava de Guarda (9+ months), Cava de Guarda Superior Reserva (18+ months), Cava de Guarda Superior Gran Reserva (30+ months), and finally Cava de Guarda Superior de Paraje Calificao (36+ months), which is made from grapes from a specific zone or sub-zone. The specific geographic designations seem to be a work in progress as they are not consistently highlighted on the labels we’ve seen, but they are another product differentiation tool to work with.

Style and Substance

Paul Hollywood, the genial judge on that popular UK baking show, is famous for telling nervous contestants that they must show both substance and style and this lesson applies to Cava and other wine regions today. Consumers don’t want to pay more for the same old wine. They might pay more for something better or different. But winemakers and sellers must first get buyers’ attention (the style part) so that they understand what they are getting, and then they must taste the difference (the substance) in the glass. The future of Cava will be shaped, at least in the short run, but how well style and substance come together.

Sue and I have been working our way through samples of next-level Cava. Here is the list with suggested retail prices and some thoughts about the wines we tasted.

Dominio de la Vega Cava Reserva Especial Brut Rose 2020 – $22
Dominio de la Vega Cava Reserva Especial Brut 2018 – $25
Roger Goulart Organic Reserva 2018 – $23
Roger Goulart Gran Reserva Josep Valls 2018 – $25
Vins El Cep Gelida Brut Gran Reserva 2018 – $24
Mestres Visol Brut Nature Gran Reserva 2016 – $41

Next Level Cava Substance

The wines we tasted are very good indeed, especially given their relatively affordable prices. As noted before, some of the wines are made with traditional Spanish grapes, some from Pinot Noir or Chardonnay, which are permitted for Cava, and some from combinations of French and Spanish grapes. All are made using the traditional method, which Cava producers see as a point of differentiation to rival Prosecco.

What did the wines have in common? First, they surprised the people who tasted them with us. More elegant and refined than expected. The Brut, Extra Brut, and Brut Nature wines are surprising by being even drier than the names suggest. More than enough substance to satisfy Mr. Hollywood, I think.

The Mestres Visol Brut Nature Gran Reserva was an extreme Cava experience worth noting. The base wines were held in a combination of stainless steel tanks and chestnut barrels. The second fermentation and bottle aging (under cork stoppers, not the usual metal crown caps) lasted six years! The 2016 wine was disgorged in 2022. Talk about going to extremes to make a point!

The result? A stunning wine. Still fresh, but much more complex than expected, with a long finish. Is this a philosopher’s Cava? It gives a sense of the direction that next level Cava is headed and, even if most of the Cava wines won’t go to this extreme, it is a bright star to follow.

Sue thought the Mestres was the most interesting wine we tasted, but it didn’t really remind her of Cava, which is something to consider. The “People’s Choice” wine was a Rosé of Pinot Noir from Dominio de la Vega. Delicious and delightful. And, alas, impossible to find here in the U.S. market. We tracked down the importer and he said he’d stopped carrying the wines. Disappointing. But that’s what happens sometimes when limited-production wines meet the many headwinds and hurdles of the complicated U.S. market structure.

Cava is changing, but that’s not news. One hundred years ago the wines were sweet and released pretty much as soon as possible. Dry with significant bottle age? Pretty radical in that context, but perhaps on the money today.

Avoiding the MEGO Effect

These next-level Cava wines are more expensive than the Cava wines we usually see in the market, which should send buyers a signal, but how is the differentiation communicated apart from price? If you look at the photo above,  you’ll see seals and designations that tell the informed buyer the story of the wine. A good beginning.

I couldn’t find the designation seal on one of the wines, which puzzled me until I glanced at the top of the bottle. There I spied the round seal sitting elegantly atop the fat cork.  I like the look, but a more obvious display has advantages, too.

Some of our sample wine bottles were cluttered with seals and designations of various types, which risks a MEGO (my eyes glaze over) effect. A clear, simple indicator (think Chianti Classico’s black rooster) would be welcome. I hope these wines can make a bigger dent in the on-trade market for Cava because the story of these next-level Cava wines lends itself to hand-selling.

Redneck Educators Unite!

Sue and I are familiar with this problem from our work last year with the Prosecco Superiore DOCG producers in Northern Italy. Their wines are an authentic step up from many of the best-selling Prosecco DOC products. Their terroir is very special and has been designated a Unesco World Heritage site. These are wines of place (or places, because the DOCG zone is far from homogenous), and you can taste the difference.

Getting consumers to understand the difference and to look for DOCG instead of DOC is a difficult proposition and it is not different for Cava.  But the challenge is worth undertaking. I am reminded of a fellow we met years ago at a Walla Walla farmers market. He was selling organic meat he raised on his farm and he introduced himself as “a redneck educator” because he wasn’t selling organic goat meat, he said, he was educating people about what made his meat different and why they should be willing to pay more for it.

D.O. Cava, Prosecco Superiore, and everyone who aspires to the next level for their products is in the same boat. We are all redneck educators now.