When you’re hot, you’re hot (and when you’re not, you’re not). That’s the way it is in the wine market today.

One of the most interesting charts at the “State of the Industry” session at this year’s Unified Wine & Grape Symposium was Danny Brager’s analysis of what I call the U.S. wine market’s “Big and Hot” situation.

The gist of the slide was that the market categories that are the biggest are not very hot (indeed, most of them are shrinkingly cold) and that the market categories that are hot and growing are relatively small. Under these circumstances, it is hard to see an “engine” category that might pull the overall market out of its current slump.

It has been a while since we published a Wine Economist “Big and Hot” column, so let’s take a closer look using the NIQ data for the 52 weeks that ended on February 24, 2024,  taken from the May 2024 issue of Wine Business Monthly. NIQ captures the big chunk of the U.S. wine market that flows through distribution channels that large wineries depend upon, but doesn’t include everything, especially DTC sales that many small and medium-sized wineries depend upon.

Reference Points

The NIQ data report both volume and value numbers. Total  measured sales for the 52-week period were $15.4 billion on 142 million 9-liter case equivalents. That was down 2.9% by value and down 4.2% by volume over the previous year.

The “Big” wines in various categories measured by value are as follows:

• Domestic $11.1 billion vs Imported $4.3 billion
• Among imports: Italy $1.4 billion, New Zealand $690 million, France $637 million.
• Among domestic: California $10.0 billion, Washington $509 million, Oregon $290 million.
• By grape variety: Cabernet Sauvignon $3.1 billion, Chardonnay $2.6 billion, Pinot Noir $1.5 billion, Sauvignon Blanc 1.4 billion.
• Blends: Red blends $1.9 billion, Rose blends $608 million, White blends $237 million.
• By price point (glass): super-premium ($11 to $14.99) $3.7 billion, Premium ($8 to $11.99) $2.5 billion, Popular ($4-$7.99) $2.4 billion.

What’s Big and Hot?

The Big and Hot winners are easy to identify because there are only two Big categories that experienced positive growth during the period under consideration and they are so closely related that they are nearly the same: New Zealand (+2.1% by value) and Sauvignon Blanc (+4.1%)! Indeed, tiny New Zealand accounts for almost half of all U.S. Sauvignon Blanc sales by value.

If you’ve noticed a lot of Costco shopping carts filled with Kim Crawford or Kirkland Signature Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc, you are not hallucinating. That’s the Big and Hot effect.

Three-liter boxes are pretty big ($856 million) and growing by 2.4%, but no other “Big” category grew during this period, although some declined by less than the overall market (which is sort of damning with faint praise). Chardonnay sales fell by only 1.9%, for example. A rising tide doesn’t always raise all boats, but this ebb tide seems to be dragging almost everyone out to sea with it.

Hot But Not Big

As Danny Brager noted at the Unified Symposium, the market is growing in smaller, niche categories, not the large segments. Red blends, a Big, are down more than 5%, for example. White blends are up slightly (0.3%), but are a small category by comparison. Two countries have experienced good growth recently, but from a relatively small base:

• South Africa 5.5% growth ($37 million)
• Portugal 3.4% growth ($53 million)

Two very different categories that experienced growth with substantial sales present something of a puzzle. Luxury glass ($20-$24.99) 0.6% growth ($867 million) beat the market average despite an overage price of $22.24. Chile 2.5% growth ($373 million) did much better in terms of growth, but sits at the other end of the market with average price of $4.93. It is hard to see the thread that connects these two wine segments.

Do these trends drawn from the NIQ data apply to smaller wineries that rely more on wine club and cellar door sales? I would be interested in reader reactions to this question. I am especially interested in the shifts among wine grape varieties and price points. As always, please keep comments short and to the point.

Starbucks and the Wine Market: An Update

Last week’s  Wine Economist column compared the current wine market situation with the problems being faced by Starbucks, the super-premium coffee chain. Tighter consumer budgets seem to be cutting into the sales of both wine, which is expensive on a per-serving basis, and Starbucks, which isn’t exactly a low-cost option either.

This week’s Economist newspaper features an article that compares Starbucks problem to that of President Joe Biden. You can evaluate this argument for yourself, but what interests me is the more detailed breakdown of Starbucks’ declining sales, which might be relevant for wine.

Starbucks has at least two types of customers. There are the committed regulars who most often visit in the morning. They load money on their Starbucks app, which they use to order coffee and other Starbucks products. I have read elsewhere that the “float” on the money that has been put on the app but not yet spent is a significant revenue stream for Starbucks, so these are really important customers.

Then there are the “occasional” customers, who more often show up in the afternoon and don’t necessarily use the app. Both the regulars and the occasional customers are important to total sales, just as they are to wine sales. And sales for both groups of consumers are down at Starbucks.

Regular customers are leaving more incomplete orders on the app, the article notes, changing their minds at the last minute. Is it because of unexpected long wait times? Are some of the millions of permutations of the chain’s drinks unavailable? I want what I want when I want it! Or is it because, once they see the total cost of their order, consumers, even regulars, hesitate to hit the order button? Probably some of all three explanations.

The Economist speculates that the decline in occasional customer  business is due mainly to tigher economic conditions, because similar reports are coming from McDonald’s, Shake Shack, and other businesses. It will be interesting to see how Starbucks responds to these challenges and if there are any lessons for wine is the results of their efforts.