Value and affordability are hot-button terms in today’s economy. It seems like the cost of just about everything is going up, including especially the price of gasoline. No wonder consumers are looking for relief, searching for value.
This is not a new phenomenon, either in the wine world or in the economy more generally. The Wine Economist asked the question Is Wine a Good Value? back in 2024 because affordability was so much in the news then. (You may recall that “affordability” was a political campaign issue then as it is likely to be again this fall.)
The Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing
“Is Wine a Good Value?” noted that many consumer goods markets were suffering from a value deficit and wondered if wine might have the same problem. Are consumers buying less wine because they don’t think it’s worth it, given the economic circumstances and likely future prospects?
Some people, according to Oscar Wilde, know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Are wine drinkers like that? If wine costs too much, some argued, consumers can always trade down to cheaper brands. Yes, but there is evidence that many people have learned that lower price is not necessarily better value. We noted that McDonald’s introduction of cheaper menu items in 2024 had backfired. Customers didn’t want to pay less and get less. They wanted better value. (And McDonald’s, having changed its strategy, seems to be experiencing success giving it to them.)
Zoom ahead from 2024 to 2026 and the affordability issue is even more severe. Tariff effects, higher interest rates and loan repayments, rising fuel prices, and other factors squeeze budgets for consumers and squeeze margins for businesses up and down the supply chain. Wine isn’t the only or even the main victim of affordability stress, but it sure has had an impact. I don’t know how much affordability is to blame for poor wine sales, but I am sure it is a factor (especially in the on-trade).
Asimov and Wine’s Sweet Spot
Enter New York Times wine columnist Eric Asimov who, like many critics, has responded over the years to reader requests for help finding wines that are both good to drink and good value for money. Asimov’s latest advice appeared recently in a column titled “How to Find Great Values in Wine.” Good value doesn’t mean simply looking for the lowest price (or even the second lowest price). Asimov writes that,
For years, I have argued that, to spend the least amount of money, the greatest proportion of good values in wine were in the range of $15 to $20 a bottle. For less than $15, it’s difficult to find bottles that are exciting and emotionally engaging, qualities I want in every bottle I drink. Less expensive bottles are almost always sound, but most are boring and one-dimensional. For a little more money, up to $20, I’ve believed, the range of exciting wines increases exponentially.
Wine prices have risen in recent years, both because of the “premiumization” phenomenon and due to other factors such as rising costs and tariffs on imported wine and winemaking inputs. Is the sweet spot still there? Yes, Asimov says, but it has changed.
This has been true for a long time, but in the nearly 15 years since my first list of $20 bottles, the cast of wines has changed drastically. The bottle of Chablis from Domaine Picq that cost $20 in 2012 now costs $35 to $40, while the Langhe freisa from G.B. Burlotto now runs $45 to $50.
At the same time, however, new wines from new producers in new places have entered the market to fill gaps in the affordability matrix.But value is getting harder and harder to achieve.
How long will $15 to $20 remain the sweet spot for these sorts of wine values? It’s a lot harder to find them today. While I will continue to take on this particular challenge, it’s fairer to say $20 to $30 today is what $15 to $20 used to be.
The Value is Out There
“Value is out there. It requires being open to new grapes, different regions and unknown producers but the rewards are worth it,” Asimov says, and I think he is right. But that’s still a problem. Sue and I are willing to take a chance on unfamiliar wines, trusting that the pleasure we get from the successes will more than offset the disappointment we experience from wines that miss the mark.
But how many people, especially rookie wine drinkers, are willing to take that chance? Wine’s value proposition needs to be good enough so that the delight is worth the disappointment at every price point, don’t you think?
Spot on. I hosted a pop-up wine bar in Paris back in February for three weeks with 63 different wines with prices spanning from 11 EUR to 60 EUR. We sold 411 bottlesand 85% of the sales were between 11-30 EUR. See the full chart here: https://events.kapitelzwei.wine/ParisPopUpSalesChart
In “the old days “ price used to be an indicator of quality. But now there’s an awful lot of over-priced mediocre wine. You can pay upwards of $125 for a bottle of uninteresting flabby wine. The economics of the market often says to the producer of such wine that he or she needs to charge that much to make a profit. But the quality of the wine (or rather the lack of quality) doesn’t justify the high price. Thus the hunt for interesting wines at a more reasonable price point. They are out there but they are getting harder to find.
I agree that “$15 to $20” has turned into “$20 to $30” in terms of climbing the price/value curve to an optimal point. But, especially here in California, I think we have lost our way on how to be a “low cost” place to grow, produce, build, make. I love the book “Judgement of Paris”, not because of the semi-apocryphal story of the event itself, but for its discussion of the origin of the modern Napa Valley as a wine making region. A bunch of people passionate about making wine, but many of whom were not yet very good at it, could flail around for a few seasons until they figured it out. They could do this because cost and barriers to entry were low. That combination (low barrier to entry + great terroir + a community of intelligent, passionate producers + some tech support from UC Davis) lead to creation of massive economic value. Where is that combination still true in California?
While I am fortunate to live in a great wine region and I belong to multiple wine clubs to receive a discount on excellent wine, I also belong to a national wine club that offers great wines at the $15-$20 value. Many of these wines are from old world regions and give me a chance to try wines that I would never find in my local wine shop. Overall, I am extremely pleased with these wines and have some favorite producers that I buy from consistently.
Just to piggyback on the observation that many good wines at $15-20 come from Old World regions … I like to shop my local stores online so I can sort by price (I usually look at $10-20 or $10-25). Based on the past, I expected that most of the good wines in these price points would be from Argentina, Chile, maybe NZ and Australia.
I have noticed the last few times that most of the good wines in these price points have come from France (!), Italy, and Spain. I am not talking about cheap wines or little known grapes. I am talking about decent white Bordeaux (and to some extent entry level red), cdR, Dolcetto, Barbera, Gamay, some Italian whites, Albarino, etc. Oh, and many Portuguese wines, although those are creeping up now as that region becomes better known and more fashionable.
For the most part, New World wines are very tricky in this price point (with the exception of some entry level South African Chenin and Chardonnay and NZ SB).
I have to assume, although I don’t know, that this is due to aggressive subsidies in these major European regions, especially as this has persisted despite the recent tariff activity (although the full effect of tariffs may not have yet emerged because of large pre-existing inventories).
Whatever the reason, it is a surprising turn of events and difficult for new drinkers because these European wines are likely to be less familiar and more difficult to decipher than new world wines labeled by grape variety.
Mike, I think there are many value wines for less than $10 per bottle. The challenge the wine industry has is that retailers and restaurants are less interested in selling these wines which make is difficult for consumers to find them.
Agreed, Steve. Bogle makes great value wines, for example, but it can be hard to find them.