What Next for U.S. Wine? Unified Symposium’s “State of the Industry”

whatnextSue and I are in Sacramento for the annual Unified Wine & Grape Symposium trade show and meetings that start today and run through Thursday. This is the Western Hemisphere’s largest wine industry gathering and there is a lot going on this year, both on the trade show floor and in the ambitious seminar program.

I will be moderating the “State of the Industry” panel on Wednesday and also speaking about the global wine market “big picture.” Nat DuBuduo of Allied Grape Growers will explain what’s happening in the vineyards (Allied’s most recent newsletter suggests Nat will have some dramatic statistics to reveal), Steve Fredricks of Turrentine Brokerage will examine bulk wine market dynamics and Jon Fredrikson of Gomberg, Fredrikson & Associates will break down the U.S wine market and name his Winery of the Year.

It will be a great session. There’s a lot happening in U.S. wine and this may be the best place to go to learn about it.

Uncertain Prospects

The Economist cover shown here captures the essence of my part of the program. The global economy faces uncertain prospects as we enter 2016. Where will economic growth come from in 2016? I will examine the usual suspects and come up with a surprising answer.

I will also highlight four global  trends that I think will be important for the U.S. wine industry  in 2016. (1) The slowdown in the Chinese economy, which is likely to have significant direct and especially indirect effects. (2) The possible renaissance of the Argentina wine export machine (I have written about this in my last two columns on The Wine Economist).

(3) The “Euro-Doillar Twist” that is taking place as U.S. interest rates rise slowly this year and European interest rates continue to move into negative territory. No one really knows how this will play out in terms of direct and indirect effects, which adds a major element of uncertainty to any economic forecast for 2016.

A Very Good Year?

Finally (4) I’ll talk briefly about the possibility of contagion as economic events in one part of the world cascade through the system. With some countries on the brink of crisis, it wouldn’t take much to set off a chain reaction.

I will conclude my very brief remarks by asking if 2016 will be a very good year for the U.S. wine industry? The answer? Maybe! (Which may come as an optimistic surprise after all the gloom and doom of my previous points.) There are definite positive prospects for U.S. wine this year, but lots of potential problems, too.

What next? Lots of uncertain possibilities. Get ready!

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A very good year? That calls for Sinatra. “I think of my life as vintage wine …”

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2 responses

  1. The slow down of the Chinese economy is the planned shift from an export driven industrial ecnomy to a services and consumer driven economy.The swift change is unbelievable, and misunderstood, It ie very positive for the wine business of the US, which will see imports of US Wines double in China in the next 5 years at least. This is what the State of the Chinese wine industry conference in Beijing on December 12 conclusion. I was the only foreigner giving a speech there, based on my 12 years of China experience, living now in Yantai, the capital of wine in China: You have to come to Yantai, There is a new 3 billion US dollars investment in wine in Yantai, including one 400 million bottles plant. China will be the driving force of the wine economy in the next five years, Many will be at my event May 28 – 31. Latest VIP to confirm last Friday is the Director General of OIV. Edouard

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