New Jersey’s “Open Source” Cabernet Franc Project

March 24, 2026 By Mike Veseth in emerging wine regions, wine, wine markets Leave a comment

Recently, Sue and I had a virtual meet-up with a group of winemakers who want to raise New Jersey’s profile on the U.S. wine industry scene and are working together to make that goal happen. Winemakers tend to be very competitive, so finding a group of them who want to play the team game is noteworthy.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that New Jersey has an active wine industry with 76 wineries in 2026 according to Wine Business Monthly. After all, New Jersey sits comfortably between the well-respected wine regions of New York (450 wineries in 2026) and Virginia (395 wineries) with Pennsylvania (401) and Maryland (105) next door.

The Rodney Dangerfield Problem

New Jersey wine suffers from the Rodney Dangerfield “respect” problem. Grapes have been grown and wine made in New Jersey since colonial times, but the shift towards quality wine is relatively recent. New Jersey’s wineries have big ambitions in terms of quality, but small scale in terms of production as is often the case in states where a farm winery act shapes distribution channels. You might think of them as the Garden State’s hidden germs.

A small group of these wineries formed the Winemakers Co-Op in 2015 aiming to both improve the quality of New Jersey wines and to further its reputation. The member wineries are

According to their website their goals are:

Member wineries aim to produce benchmark dry wines from estate‑grown vinifera (European) varieties that illuminate the differences in soil and climate that exist throughout the Garden State. Through a series of intimate tasting events, industry outreach and communication with the press, these wineries have established themselves as leaders of fine wine production on the East Coast. By spearheading essential industry research and development, Co-Op members are striving to push the boundaries of quality with each new vintage.

Sue and I got involved when we were invited to sample the Winemakers Co-Op “Open Source” wines. The Open Source project is such an original idea that we just had to say yes. Here’s how it works.

Common Base, Individual Vision

Each year since 2016 the Co-Op members have chosen a winegrape variety that they all produced as the object of a project to showcase the group’s work. Each winery contributes half a ton of grapes, which are combined and redistributed, providing the “open source” or common base of the wines that each individual member makes.

The source material is the same, but of course each winery chooses what to do with it and so a variety of types and styles of wines result. Most winemakers are a bit competitive in my experience, so I imagine there is some effort to make wines that are distinctive while advancing the collective goal.

Certainly that is the case with the current release, which is made from Cabernet Franc grapes harvested in 2022. This is the first time for Cabernet Franc in the Open Source program. Chardonnay was the focus of the early years of the program. Bordeaux and Pinot Noir blends appeared in 2023 and 2024.

It is interesting to see how different winemakers have responded to the Open Source Cabernet Franc challenge. William Heritage Winery, for example, made a white wine by gently pressing whole clusters and fermenting and ageing in stainless steel with six months of lees contact. Unexpected!

Vive la Difference?

The other wines are red, as you would expect, but differ in all sorts of other ways. Variations on a theme and an opportunity for each winery to experiment and explore. But, since we have no previous experience with New Jersey wines, we were sometimes left scratching our heads. The first wine we tasted, for example, reminded us a little of a Napa Cab Franc we tried recently while the second was closer to a Loire style of wine. Are these wines typical of Cab Franc from this region? Or are they more about exploring differentiation?

I’m not sure we’ve seen a project like this before although it reminds me a bit of the Coro Mendocino project. The Coro Mendocino wineries make distinctive wines from a common blend, but not from the same actual grapes.

Production of the Open Source is obviously limited. Each winery makes only about 23 cases of Open Source wine each year. The wines wear special Open Source labels and this year’s Cab Franc wines sell for $45 per bottle. Sue and I were fortunate to be invited to taste through the Cabernet Franc lineup.

You probably want to know which wine we like best. Too soon to tell, because we haven’t tasted them all yet, and in any case taste is very personal. But the most important thing about the Open Source project is something bigger than the individual wines. The most important thing is that the members of the Winemakers Co-op are working together to take their wines and their reputations to the next level.

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About William Heritage Winery
A fifth-generation family-owned and operated estate vineyard and winery located in Mullica Hill, in the heart of the Outer Coastal Plain American Viticultural Area. Bill & Penni Heritage began cultivating grapes on their 150 acres of apple and peach orchards in 1999, realizing the potential of the Garden State wine industry and starting a new chapter for the next generation.

About Beneduce Vineyards
Founded in 2012 in Pittstown, NJ, Beneduce Vineyards is a sustainably-minded, 4th-generation farm on a mission to prove the potential for world-class wines exists in the soils of Hunterdon County. Focusing on small lot production, creating unique wines from 100% estate grown grapes.

About Hawk Haven Vineyard & Winery
Established in 2008 on land in Cape May that has been in the Wuerker family since the 1940s; Hawk Haven is owned and operated by husband and wife team Todd & Kenna Wuerker. Todd is a self-taught winemaker, crafting a diverse set of wines from 16 acres of estate-grown grapes. He has his sights set on becoming the first Garden State sparkling specialist.

About Unionville Vineyards
Set on 89 acres of preserved farmland in Hunterdon County, Unionville Vineyards comprises five estate vineyards spread over three counties, allowing for unique, expressive wines to be crafted from fruit grown in the varying terroirs of central and northern New Jersey.

About Working Dog Winery
Established in 2001 by a group of friends with a shared passion for winemaking, Working Dog Winery has grown into a nearly 20-acre vineyard producing over a dozen vinifera varietals. After 23 years of dedication, the founding members entrusted the winery’s future to Carlee Ludwig, Sharon Kyle, and Kevin Kyle as they entered retirement in December 2024.

About Auburn Road Vineyard & Winery
Founded in 2003 by former Philadelphia-based lawyers Scott & Julianne Donnini, who left the corporate world and never looked back. Jules is a self-taught winemaker, and Scott runs the marketing and operations – together they create old-world style wines with a keen sense of balance that frames the beauty of the fruit.

U.S. Wine Industry by the Numbers

March 10, 2026 By Mike Veseth in wine, wine markets 1 Comment

I am always excited to receive the annual “Review of the Industry” issue of Wine Business Monthly because it is so jam-packed with data and analysis. The 2026 issue (which was distributed at the Unified Symposium’s State of the Industry Session) is especially welcome because it effectively captures major shifts in the U.S. wine industry today. Here are some key takeaways of the WBM report.

Disappearing Wineries

Winery openings often get a lot of attention. Winery closings, not so much. Doors close, equipment is sold off, inventory is quietly liquidated, and memories fade.

If it seems like the number of wines and wineries is always growing it is due in part to the fact that openings are so much more visible than closings. But new wineries enter the market and existing ones exit every year.

Winery closings were impossible to ignore in 2026, according to WBM. The total number of wineries in the U.S. declined by 3% from 11,450 in 2025 to 11,107 at the start of 2026. That’s a decrease in the net number since there are always some openings to offset closings. The winery count has fallen by 512 since the 2024 data were released according to WBM.

The drop in winery count is widespread. There are wineries in every U.S. state and there were winery closings in every state but one: Missouri (253 wineries). Among the states experiencing losses, California (which has the most wineries) experienced the largest drop in winery count, Pennsylvania had the lowest, with the number falling from 402 to 401 according to the WBM data.

Overall, about one winery closed its doors each day of the year in 2025. That’s a lot of wineries, but not necessarily a lot of wine simply because most wine is made by a few large wineries (see below) but most wineries are relatively small.

WBM also provides data for Canadian wineries. Canada can count 831 wineries in 2026, according to the WBM data, down from 860 in 2025. Wine is made in every region except the Yukon Territories. The largest number of producers are located in British Columbia (317 wineries down from 329 in 2025), Ontario (284 down from 292), and Quebec (163 down from 170).

Clash of the Titans

The largest U.S. wineries are very large indeed and many of them are privately owned and do not release production figures. WBM profiles the top 50 wineries and estimates production when published data are not available. I thought it would be interesting to compare 2026 data for the top five wineries with the numbers from 2025 and 2016. Here’s what I found.

Gallo is #1 in 2026. It is the largest wine company in the U.S. and in the world by volume. Gallo produced an estimated 90 million cases of wine in 2026, down from 94 million in 2025 but higher than the 75 million it produced in 2016. Gallo’s portfolio grew when it acquired a host of wine brands from Constellation a few years ago. It has retrenched more recently and pivoted to other beverages such as the hot-selling High Noon vodka-based RTD brand.
The Wine Group: 43 million cases in 2026, 40 million in 2025, but 57.5 million in 2016.
Trinchero Family Estates: 17 million in 2026, 19 million in 2025. It was #5 with 18.5 million in 2016.
Delicato Family Wines: 16 million cases in 2026, 16.3 million cases in 2025. It was #8 with 8 million cases in 2016.
Deutsche Family Wine & Spirits: 12 million cases in 2026, #7 with 13 million cases in 2025. Not listed in the top 30 wineries in 2016.

The rest of the top ten for 2026: Jackson Family Wines (6), Treasury Wine Estates (7), Ste Michelle Wine Estates (8), Bronco Wine Company (9), WX Brands (100).

Constellation Brands, once the largest wine producer in the world, ranks #28 with 750,000 cases of wine produced. It was #3 with 50 million cases in 2016. Although it has retained a number of prestige wine brands such as Robert Mondavi, Constellation is now much more focused on its Mexican beer portfolio.

Bottom Line: The largest wineries are very large indeed, sell wines at many price points, and have considerable resources to deal with the current down market. But even they are not immune to the problems that plague the industry today. The fact that Gallo is down “only” 4 million cases in the last year sort of takes my breath away.

Distribution Bottleneck

It makes sense that WBM’s Review of the Industry issue includes an analysis of wine distributors. In my studies of different industries I have observed that there tends to be one or two major inefficiencies (I call them bottlenecks) in the value chain. Successful firms and even whole industries organize themselves around the problem of breaking through the bottleneck problem.

What’s the bottleneck in U.S. wine? It isn’t growing grapes or actually making the wine. It is getting it through the three-tier system into the hands of those who can sell it.

The two critical features of U.S. wine noted in the WBM report are, first, distribution remains highly concentrated in a few large firms and there is little top line change to report. Even though Republic National pulled out of California last year, for example, it still ranks as the #2 national wine distributor after Southern Glazer’s.

WBM reports that the distribution bottleneck is getting even narrower, driven by declining demand and narrowing margins. Retailers increasingly focus on a smaller number of SKUs that can generate reliable cash flow, which means that distributors must do the same.

As WBM reports, “… there are 1,061 unique wine distributors that operate across the United States. That’s slightly fewer than this time last year and roughly one-third of the number of wine distributors in business a few decades ago. … “It’s not a time for great variety, not a time to drive a thousand different things,” said Southern Glazer’s chief marketing and sales officer Gene Sullivan. “Customers are saying ‘Give me that stuff that matters.'”

Pareto and the 80/20 Rule

The great Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed the 80/20 phenomenon in 1896 and it has become a classic management principle reminding us to focus on what’s most important. The rule shows up in many ways. For example, according to my AI intern,

Business: 80% of sales often come from 20% of customers.
Productivity: 20% of your tasks produce 80% of your meaningful results.
Customer service: 20% of issues generate 80% of complaints.
Wealth distribution: Pareto originally observed that 20% of Italians owned 80% of the land.

The WBM report presents a variation on the 80/20 rule when it comes to distribution. Twenty percent of wines produce 80 percent of sales. The remaining 80 percent of wines face an uphill climb on their path to market. That’s not really new, to be honest (and maybe it is more like 90/10 in some cases) but it is maybe even more important now in a shrinking market.

Anatomy of Wine’s Triple Crisis

March 3, 2026 By Mike Veseth in economic crisis, Shameless Self-Promotion, wine, wine markets 2 Comments

Recently, I’ve noticed that Wine Economist posts and pages that reference my book Wine Wars II: The Global Battle for the Soul of Wine (2022) (such as “Countdown to Wine Wars II and Wine Wars II) are getting a lot of attention. I think I know why.

The biggest updates in Wine Wars II is a new closing section called Wine’s Triple Crisis. As I re-read this section (and reflect on current wine market conditions), I see why current readers might be especially interested. I’ve pasted below a very brief summary of this part of the book (clipped from the introductory chapter) so that you can see what it is about.

The environmental and economic crises are clear (and I hope I did them justice), so I want to draw your attention to the third issue, wine’s identity crisis. What is wine (is it just alcohol)? Who is it for (just for boomers or just for the wealthy or just for elites)? What does wine do to us (does it make us happy or does it make us sick)?

The identity of wine has changed dramatically in the last 100 years. No wonder the wine business has changed, too. Here’s that excerpt from Wine Wars II.

WINE’S TRIPLE CRISIS
The global wine industry is in the midst of a triple crisis, and I am not really sure how it will end. The climate change crisis comes first. It affects everything if we consider both direct and indirect effects, so it may seem odd to think of it as a wine crisis. Wine grapes generally can be made to grow under quite extreme conditions; in some colder regions, they actually bury the vines in the winter to protect them and unearth them each spring so that they can come back to life (you might call this Lazarus viticulture). But specific wine grape varieties thrive in only very narrow bands of average temperature, and wine regions defined by particular grapes or wine styles are threatened by relatively small changes in environmental conditions. Wine is, therefore, the canary in the coal mine when it comes to climate change. It will feel the impacts before many other industries, and so it is not a surprise, as I explain later, that wine businesses are among the strongest advocates for progressive environmental action.

The climate change crisis dwarfs everything else in the long run, but because the long run can seem far away and we often misjudge how fast it is approaching, climate concerns do not get the attention they deserve. Indeed, as the global reaction to the coronavirus pandemic crisis has demonstrated, climate change generally isn’t treated with the “drop everything” or “operation moonshot” urgency that real crises warrant. But even if the climate change threat were to disappear tomorrow, wine would still be in trouble.

The second crisis is economic. Wine is a magical beverage, but it is a crazy business. Wine’s economic environment is characterized by cyclical, structural, and “wild card” forces that make it difficult to prepare for or successfully execute a business plan.

Global wine consumption grew steadily for the twenty years that ended in about 2008, the date we associate with the global financial crisis. Rising wine sales were important because they slowly soaked up a surplus of wine. Too much wine? Well, for many years the European Union in effect subsidized wine
production to stabilize agricultural economies, especially in France, Italy, and Spain. Wine farmers were paid to grow grapes and to make wine that could not be sold, so some of it was distilled into industrial alcohol. Yuck! Those policies are history, and European winegrowers turned from government subsidy wine to wine aimed at global markets. This is a good thing, but it happened just as wine production increased in other parts of the world, too. The result: a lot of grapes, a lot of wine, and a lot of jobs and incomes at risk.

Rising global wine sales were most welcome in this context, and when sales dropped a bit in 2008, no one was very concerned. “It’s just the economy, dummy,” they said. “Wine will spring back when the economy improves.” But it didn’t, and the next ten years were what I have called “wine’s lost decade.” Why did wine lose its mojo? There are many possible reasons (I explain them later), but the sudden loss in momentum changes the nature of the game from a positive-sum fight, where a rising tide raises all ships, to a zero-sum fight for market share. And the battle isn’t just between Old World and New World or among the growers and producers in these regions; the opponents are now more diverse and unexpected than ever before.

The reason? Wine’s identity crisis. Wine has never been just one thing. It is, after all, both that fancy French Champagne at the top of the wine wall and that big box of Franzia at the bottom. Wine is healthful (think Mediterranean diet) and dangerous (read the government required warnings on wine labels in the United States). It is culture to some and just another commodity to others.

The cartoon character Pogo famously said, “We have met the enemy, and he is us,” and this is true in a way for wine. The biggest threat to wine’s identity is something inherent to wine’s existence: alcohol. You might think that wine is just grape juice with alcohol, but wine doesn’t taste much like the grapes it is made from except in a few specific cases. Fermentation doesn’t just add an alcoholic kick; it transforms the product in complex ways. It’s the same with the way that fermenting yeast makes bread different from flour and water. So wine as we know it is impossible without alcohol, but it may also be impossible with it if antialcohol forces have their way.

Wine’s identity crisis is significant because it seems like those who see wine as a social or health problem, not an essential element in our culture, have seized the momentum. If wine doesn’t know who it is and what it is and cannot tell its story to the world, then how can it survive?

Five Things We Learned at the 2026 Unified Symposium

February 10, 2026 By Mike Veseth in Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine markets Leave a comment

Sue and I have recently returned from the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento. The Unified is North America’s largest wine industry gathering. It is a big conference, so we employ a divide-and-conquer strategy. Sue focuses on the big trade show, I see what’s going on at the sessions, and we both talk with everyone we can in the hallways and receptions.

We don’t have a polished report to present, but here is a collection of field notes that capture the essence of our experience this year.

Stress Test

Just about all of the 1000+ people who attended the State of the Industry session seemed to have one of these 5-inch flexible “stress bottles,” which they squeezed for relief during tense moments. Kudos to sponsor Vintage Crop for helping us recognize that we are in difficult times and we need to find positive ways to channel our anxiety and move forward.

Attendance was somewhat lower this year — understandable given the economic situation — but the overall mood was more positive than you might expect. No one fooled themselves into thinking that good times are around the corner, but the data seem to suggest that the market may stabilize in 2027 or early 2028. What’s it going to look like then? What can we do now to prepare for what lies ahead? Those questions dominated the discussion.

Squeezing the stress bottles might have helped everyone concentrate a bit better on the parts of the situation that they can control, even if there is still much uncertainty.

2. Ask Your Doctor

The Tuesday Keynote Luncheon featured a conversation about wine and health between Drinks Insider’s Felicity Carter and Laura Catena, head of Argentina’s Catena winery and, significantly, also a medical doctor. Catena somehow managed for many years to be both a winemaker in Mendoza and an emergency room physician in San Francisco. I wish I had half her energy, discipline, and focus.

There is a lot of information, misinformation, and controversy about the health effects of wine. Many in the wine business complain about a tilted playing field because they are not permitted to make positive health statements about wine while, on the other side of the debate, anti-alcohol proponents can say just about anything.

The Carter and Catena presentation was packed full of facts and analysis. The large luncheon audience is certainly much better informed now about the risks, trade-offs, and benefits of moderate wine consumption.

But is there a good way to get the message out to the broader consumer market? Of course, according to Sue. Dr. Catena advised consumers to consult with their doctors instead of the internet. There are people with particular medical circumstances or family histories who really shouldn’t drink any alcohol at all. For the rest of us — well, it depends on a lot of things including what we drink, how, and how much. A medical professional who knows the facts and the personal circumstances is best positioned to advise on this as with other health matters.

They also suggested looking beyond scary headlines. Good medical studies are complex, and require the reader to dive deeply into the methodology, the assumptions and biases that may be present, and the results.

3. It’s a Wine World After All

You hear lots of international languages and accents at the Unified. Spanish, of course (see below), French, Italian, Portuguese, British, Australian, New Zealand, South African, and more. Wine is a global industry and the Unified is the largest industry gathering in the western hemisphere. The world comes to Sacramento every year for this big event.

Sue loves to walk the trade show floor connecting with old friends and looking for the new and surprising. Two new booths stood out this year. What was ITA (the Italian Trade Agency) doing at the Unified? We often work with the ITA when they are promoting exports from Italian wineries and regions, but the Unified trade show isn’t where you go to sell wine to consumers; it’s where you go to sell equipment and services to winegrowers and wine makers. And that’s why the ITA was there. Italy is an important wine technology center (as we learned when we attended SIMEI a few years ago), and the ITA was there to support those businesses.

Sue was also surprised when she stopped to inspect some of the most beautiful wine labels she’s ever seen and then discovered they came from China. They are the work of CIR Label, a custom label creator for global brands. The business was founded by designers who had trouble locating label makers who could realize their visions and now it focuses on making clients’ visions come to life. CIR stands for Creativity Into Reality and the creativity was clearly on display. You can see some sample labels here, but the photos don’t really do them justice because the textures of the final product don’t come through very well.

They say they can deliver labels about a week after final approval. Amazing.

The Unified was a bold investment for CIR Label. Sue asked if they had any existing U.S. clients and the answer was no. The booth was pretty busy when we were there, which is a good sign. I hope they come back next year and we can see how their U.S. business has developed.

4. Spanish Spoken Here

You won’t be surprised to know that the U.S. wine industry is multilingual. Spanish is an important language in the vineyards and cellars — and really at every stage and level of the industry. Since the Unified is by and for the entire industry, the development of Spanish-language programming has been a high priority.

The Spanish programming is concentrated on Thursday morning and we heard that there was some anxiety about the gatherings because of the possibility of ICE activity around the convention center. These are tense times. Would people stay away? Fortunately, we are told, participation was very strong and the programs were successful. That’s a good thing because the future of wine needs all the help it can get from all the talented people it can attract and foster. Spanish (and many other languages) spoken here for sure.

5. Heard on the Trade Show Floor

The trade show covers every aspect of the wine industry, from the ground up to the finished product. Attendance here seemed to be lower than in previous years; an organization that sent 20 representatives in the past may have sent only ten to 15 this year. The enthusiasm for the show, however, was in full force.

Robotics, computer systems, and other technologies for both the vineyard and wine production continue to be large presence. Like other agri-businesses, the wine sector is facing worker shortages and increasing labor costs, plus on-going concerns about environmental impacts and water consumption (among a gazillion other topics). Whatever you might need, someone at the trade show will have a technology for it.

In recent years, a few trade show exhibitors included technology for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol wines; not so much this year. Maybe it is still too early to know what lies ahead for NA and LA wines.

And in a year when vineyard owners are pulling up vines, there were several purveyors of plants doing business, an indication that growers are thinking about the future even in difficult times.

This article only scratches the surface of the 2026 Unified Symposium. Reading about it isn’t enough. If you are seriously interested in the U.S. wine industry, you’ve simply got to go and experience it yourself. Mark your calendar for January 26-28, 2027.

Vinho Verde and the White Wine Resurgence

February 3, 2026 By Mike Veseth in Portuguese wine, wine, wine markets 2 Comments

We seem to be in the midst of a white wine resurgence. There has been a shift to white from red in many markets around the world. Certainly, it is happening here in the U.S. The French market has seen sales momentum move from red to pink to white. Even in Asia, I am told, the old orthodoxy that wine’s first duty is to be red is changing. Aromatic white wines (which seem so well suited to some of the cuisines) are getting attention.

There are certainly many reasons for the “red shift” to white. Affordability is probably part of the answer, since white wines are often cheaper than reds. Recent NIQ data published in Wine Business Monthly, for example, puts the average price of white wines sold through U.S. market channels at $8.48 per bottle. The average price for red wine is almost 25 percent more at $10.54.

Case Study: Vinho Verde

Recently Sue and I have been taking a closer look at Vinho Verde, the popular Portuguese white wine, and we think it might provide some insights into the white wine situation. Vinho Verde isn’t a grape variety (although a lot of people probably think that); it is a region in northern Portugal that has produced crisp white wine for hundreds of years.

Vinho Verde is a wine with many faces, which is part of its appeal. It can be an inexpensive daily drink. The Broadbent NV Vinho Verde, for example, has been a popular brand in the U.S. for nearly 20 years. It is both good (Decanter 91 points) and, with a retail price hovering around $10 per bottle, a very good value. No wonder it shows up frequently on both “best” and “best buy” lists. You can usually find a bottle in The Wine Economist wine fridge, especially in the warmer months.

But there is more to Vinho Verde than good value, as we learned a few years ago on a trip to Lisbon. A friend guided us to Cervejaria Ramiro, the popular seafood restaurant, and recommended a particular Vinho Verde made from the Alvarinho grape variety. It might have been the grape or the maker or the ridiculously delicious Ramiro food, but the result was an elevated experience that told us there was more to learn about “green wine.”

Take the Next Step

Now some producers are taking the next step by focusing on single-variety Vinho Verde wines from native grapes. The idea is to show another face of Vinho Verde, with distinct characteristics and greater complexity.

We recently tried two wines that convinced us that this is a promising path to follow. The first was the Casa da Tojeira – Tojeira Arinto 2023, which is made entirely from the native Arinto grape variety (it is more common to find blends of Loureiro, Avesso, Azal, Arinto, and other grapes). The wine was well balanced and developed nicely in the glass as it warmed up. An excellent introduction to this style. Casa da Tojeira makes a full line of white wines that explore every aspect of Vinho Verde. I hope we have an opportunity to explore more of their wines in the future.

Next came a bottle of Márcio Lopes – Pequenos Rebentos Vinhas Velhas Loureiro 2022, made from the Loureiro grape variety. The wine was intense with complex aromas and flavors. I am not sure I would have guessed Vinho Verde if I didn’t already know it. It was completely different from anything I can remember tasting before. Now I want to taste more wines like this.

Loureiro is Portuguese for “laurel” according to my reference materials, and if you think of the aroma of a laurel hedge and then add in orange and acacia blossoms and maybe some peach or pear, you begin to sense the nature of this wine. It can be so intense, in fact, that it is often blended with other grapes to tone it down a bit. Quite an experience.

The thing about these next level wines is that the price premium to move up is relatively small. High-end Vinho Verde like these sell in the $20 to $25 range. This fact is perhaps another reason for the shift to white wines. Red wines in this price range often don’t deliver the complexity and distinctiveness that these white wines provide.

I don’t know if the “red shift” to white wines will last, but it seems like a good idea to take advantage of the opportunities to try new wines.

The Greatest Wine in the World?

We cannot write a column featuring Vinho Verde without telling a story about the “greatest wine in the world.” Sue and I were in Evora, Portugal, for a conference presentation and we were having dinner with a group that included many producers. We were enjoying some Vinho Verde and I congratulated the winemaker on his delicious wine.

He shook my hand enthusiastically and proclaimed that Vinho Verde was the greatest wine in the world. It was good to drink, he told me, and good to grow and make because vineyard yields were relatively high, which generated profitable margins, too. It was green wine in the economic sense. He loved it.

Who am I to disagree? Maybe Vinho Verde really is the greatest wine in the world!

Dark Clouds and Silver Linings

January 20, 2026 By Mike Veseth in Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine history, wine markets Leave a comment

I have been busy getting ready for next week’s “State of the Industry” session at the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento. The theme of the Unified in 2026 is “Reframe the Narrative.” There was a lot of bad news about the wine business in 2025. Where are we headed in 2026 and beyond? How can we get out of this rut?

This is my 15th consecutive year on this panel and I thought it would be interesting to look back at my first presentation, which was in 2012. It took some fiddling to find the files, but here are the slides I presented back then along with my unedited and very rough presentation notes.

If you take a few minutes to read through this material, you’ll notice that while the wine business environment was very different back in 2012 in terms of the headlines, many of the detailed concerns were similar to today. Margins were tight then, for example, and tight now, too, but for very different reasons.

Economics is called the dismal science, so I suppose that dark clouds and silver linings are always on the cards. The more things change the more they stay the same in that regard. I think my final point (Boulding’s Law) has held up pretty well, don’t you? Here’s my 2012 report.

The State of the Wine Industry 2012: A Global Perspective

I study globalization and wine so I am here today to start off this session with a global perspective on the state of the industry.

Wine has always been a global industry, or as global as trade barriers and transportation costs allowed.

It is not an accident that when David Ricardo wrote his economics textbook almost 300 years ago, the example he used to illustrate international trade was the wine trade.

It has always been important to have a global perspective on wine but now more than ever. The wine world has become a tight little world where international and global effects cannot be ignored.

Today’s session will have a good deal of good news — a lot more than in some recent years. As an economist, however, it is my job to channel Alan Greenspan back when he warned about the dangers of “irrational exuberance.”

Silver linings do not always come wrapped in dark clouds, but sometimes they do. And it is important to understand them and to think strategically about them.

A Dangerous Phase

One silver lining is growth. The US economy should continue to grow in 2012, although perhaps more slowly than in 2011. And the wine market should continue to recover.

But the dark cloud that surrounds this is the global economy, which has entered a “Dangerous Phase” according to the International Monetary Fund. The global economy will grow this year but more slowly than before and with the largest single economic area — the European Union — likely falling into recession.

GLOBAL GROWTH SQUEEZE

And so economic leaders will be desperately looking for growth … and where will they find it? Consumers do not seem able to carry the load, especially with the housing crisis still unresolved.

Business investment is also inadequate due to poor future expectations and tight credit market conditions.

Government is handcuffed by its own debt and politically gridlocked as well.

So this leaves exports and we can expect nations to push for every competitive advantage for their products to try to grab the growth they need.

EXCHANGE RATES

This explains why exchange rates will be especially volatile in 2012. The US has successfully run a secret “weak dollar” policy for the past few years and now other countries are following suit. Competitive depreciations or currency wars are likely as more countries try to use exchange rates to grasp the growth they desperately require.

WILD CARDS

There are many wild cards that could turn dark clouds into silver linings or vice versa. The most troubling wild cards are the US and the European Union. Will US growth stall? And how will the election affect economic policy?

The questions are even more serious for Europe. How deep will the recession be and will Germany be part of it? And, of course, will the Euro survive in its present form? Big questions.

A Tight Squeeze for Wine

This combination of silver linings and dark clouds will create a Tight Squeeze for the wine industry. Let me explain how these pieces fit together.

A TIGHT SQUEEZE FOR WINE

These global economic factors in combination with the particular dynamic of the wine industry produce the conditions for what I am calling a Tight Squeeze for wine.

INCREASING COMPETITION

Competition is increasing all along the supply chain. There is more competition for wine grapes and bulk wine and more competition as well for those markets and market segments high decent margins.

THE BIG SQUEEZE

Wine maker margins will feel A Big Squeeze.

You will hear a lot today about the competition for wine grapes and bulk wine. Short market conditions are pushing up prices in many key market segments.

Wine producers naturally want to pass along higher costs to consumers but this is problematic in many market segments. Slow economic growth combined with buyers who see discounted prices as the new normal means that some producers will be squeezed out of some markets because of shrinking or even negative margins.

The squeeze will put increased emphasis on lower cost alternative sources of grapes and bulk wines and on those brands and market segments where margins can be maintained or perhaps even increased.

CURRENCY SHIFTS

The exchange rate shifts I talked about a minute ago will impact the Big Squeeze in several ways, creating both silver linings in the form of lower import costs and also dark clouds due to greater import competition.

The dollar is likely to continue to increase in value, but exchange rates are the most difficult thing to predict in economics and it is impossible to tell for sure how individual currency values will be affected. There will be silver linings for some, I’m sure, and clouds for others.

WILD CARDS: CHINA

There are many wild cards in the Big Squeeze scenario, but the biggest is certainly China. Economic growth will slow this year in China, but how much? The worst case scenario would be for Europe’s recession to be deeper than expected and the US recovery to stall. In this case China’s growth could fall dramatically.

How would this affect wine? Well, the direct effects would be rather small I think – slower growth in an otherwise rapidly growing market.

But the indirect effects would be significant. If China’s industrial production slows so would its raw material purchases, which would hit the Chilean Peso, Australian dollar and perhaps the South African rand particularly hard.

What’s the Best Way to Prepare for the Future?

And finally I suggest for your consideration Boulding’s Law, named for Kenneth Boulding, the great economist. Boulding once conducted a study of the history of the future — he looked back in history to see what people thought would happen in the future and then he fast forwarded to find out if they were right.

His conclusion. When the future finally came around, people were generally surprised — even when it was exactly what they expected.

Hence Boulding’s Law: the best way to prepare for the future is to prepare to be surprised!

The Deion Sanders Theory of Wine Markets

January 13, 2026 By Mike Veseth in Supply and Demand, wine, wine markets 10 Comments

Cyclical or structural? That was one of the most-asked questions in the wine business when everyone gathered for the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento last year.

Was the decline in sales due to a structural change? There were a lot of structural shift theories including generational change (bye-bye, boomers), heightened health awareness, affordability (a hot term right now), and more.

Other analysts, however, viewed the problem more in cyclical terms. The wine industry experiences periodic booms and busts. And consumers go through life-cycles, drinking less wine when young, more as they mature, and then less again when they start to “age out” of the market. Maybe we are just caught in the down-cycle and things will turn up if we give them time.

The Deion Sanders Theory: Both

A year later the answer looks clear to me. Structural or cyclical? The answer, which I am stealing from a 1995 Pizza Hut television commercial starring Deion Sanders and Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, is simple: Both. [Click on Deion’s image above to see the video.]

This looks to be the most serious global wine industry crisis in at least a generation, so maybe it is no surprise that it isn’t the result of a single force, but the “perfect storm” phenomenon. Certainly all of the structural shift concerns are at work and warrant attention and I’m not sure we have fully figured them out yet.

But this year attention has turned to the cycle problem in part because we can see it happening right in front of our eyes. But can we do anything about it? The problem is that the existence of large inventories has discouraged wineries from buying grapes and making wine. Vines are being grubbed up in California and around the world in response to the production decline. Inventory cycles may even result in a shortage of wine grapes in a few years, which will be a strange sight after the recent surplus. A shortage? Read on.

Econ 101 and All That

The role of inventories in the phenomenon of business cycles was part of the syllabus when I first studied macroeconomics. The logic went like this: Suppose there is an exogenous shock that reduced overall demand (see structural shift above). This leaves businesses holding unplanned excess inventories. They respond by reducing new orders (which deepens the decrease in demand) until stocks are depleted.

One characteristic of decentralized markets, and the factor that tends to make cycles repeat themselves, is the phenomenon of overshooting. When firms draw down inventories, they tend to wait too long to stop, creating a shortage. And when they build up inventories again they overshoot on the up side, too. This isn’t a strategy. It’s just what happens when you have to guess where the bottom and the top of the cycle are. And that’s a serious concern now, that today’s surplus could turn into a shortage in a few years.

Stocks and Flows

Right now we have large inventories in many parts of the wine market. Some wine producers have so much unsold inventory from previous vintages that they made very little (and sometimes none at all) in 2025. They won’t fully return to the grape markets until those surplus stocks either sell out or “age out.”

And, to be honest, some wine consumers have accumulated pretty big inventories, too, and don’t really need to buy a lot of wine in the short run. Wine production (which economists call a flow variable) won’t start to rise until inventories (a stock variable) have fallen for consumers, retailers, distributors, and producers. When that will happen is hard to predict, but it is the biggest question confronting the industry today.

The impact of high inventories and relatively low sales is a wine problem, but not just a wine problem. Jim Beam, the famous Bourbon producer, recently announced that it was pausing production for a year (a year!) to allow time for excess inventories to decline to a sustainable level. And apparently there is a glut of Scotch whisky, too.

What Would Deion Do?

What will the market look like when stocks and flows are back in equilibrium? Not like it did before. That’s because of the structural shifts that have taken place. The U.S. wine market will be smaller and different, but it will still be there.

So what should we do? Focus on the structural elements as many did last year? Or try to guess how the cycle will play out and develop strategies accordingly? I don’t know what you are going to do, but I think I can guess how Deion would answer that question.

Both.

2026: The Year to Change the Narrative about Wine

January 6, 2026 By Mike Veseth in wine, wine markets 3 Comments

Welcome to 2026. It promises to be a year filled with both celebration and anxiety. Anxiety is understandable given the many unpredictable political and economic forces at work both here in the United States and around the world.

2026 is a bit like this illustration from the Economist newspaper’s annual review, The World Ahead 2026. The ball’s in play and anything could happen: war, peace, boom, bust, success, failure. It’s (almost) enough to drive you to drink something stronger than wine.

A Year to Celebrate?

Anxiety is easy to understand. But what about the celebrations? Well, several important anniversaries will be celebrated in 2026, some with more enthusiasm than others. Economists like me, for example, will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s book An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith’s Invisible Hand has inspired many to embrace the power of markets and provoked others to oppose them, but its influence is difficult to deny.

2026 is also the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in Philadelphia, an act that gave birth to both the United States of America and to a set of ideas with global implications.

1776 was quite a year. Wealth of Nations and the Declaration of Independence fundamentally reframed how we saw the world. We are still feeling the aftershocks of those events today.

Reframing the Narrative of American Wine

2026 is the 50th anniversary of an event that sent shocks through the world of wine: the 1976 Judgment of Paris, which has been documented in George M. Taber’s famous 2005 book and popularized in a fictionalized 2008 film called Bottle Shock.

Taber, a Paris-based reporter for Time magazine, got wind of an unusual event. A panel of French wine experts was going to compare flights of California red and white wines with roughly similar French wines. The judging would be blind and the result was sure to be a triumph for the French. But if even one California wine did pretty well, there might be a story in it. So California-born Taber got the editorial OK to check it out.

The result, as you probably know, was indeed newsworthy (Taber got the scoop because he was the only journalist there). The top red wine and the top white wine were both from California. What a scandal!

If you analyze the data of the judging closely, as economists like me are prone to do (see “Wine by the Numbers”), the victory of Team California over Team France is not completely clear. But this much is very clear. The Judgment of Paris changed the narrative about California versus France and New World versus Old World.

Fresh Thinking Spreads

The biggest change was in how Americans thought about their own wines. How could the French be wrong about wine? Maybe the critics who had been promoting California wines (with limited success) were right? Interest in California wine, already on the rise, was magnified and accelerated.

The French were also impressed. Maybe not the average French wine drinker, but certainly some people at the top of the industry. Investment by French winemakers in California vineyards and winemaking facilities, already on the rise (Domaine Chandon was founded in 1974), was magnified and accelerated.

As Taber explains in Judgment of Paris, new thinking spread to wine regions all around the world. If California wines are actually very good, maybe we can learn something from them to make our wines world-class, too. The rise of quality winemaking, already under way in many regions, was also magnified and accelerated.

Time to Reframe the Question Today?

It is never easy to change the way people think about the world, but the situation today is more difficult in some ways than ever before. When Taber wrote his Judgment of Paris story (and when Morley Safer made his TV report on the French Paradox) mass communications were much simpler. There were a few magazines that millions of people read every week (Time and Newsweek) and a few TV programs that pulled in viewers every week (60 Minutes). Do you think a magazine article or television program would have the same effect today?

The news cycle was slower in the past, too. An idea might be talked about and turned over in discussion for days or weeks (or more). Ideas today are chewed up and spit out pretty fast. I’m not saying that it is impossible to make a lasting impact, but it is an upstream swim all the way.

It may be hard to change the narrative about wine, but that’s not a reason to give up on the idea. “Reframing the Narrative” is the theme of the 2026 Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, North America’s largest wine industry meeting. I hope everyone who comes to Sacramento at the end of the month is ready to pitch in.

Three Wine Economics Questions for 2026

December 30, 2025 By Mike Veseth in Economic impact, wine, wine markets 3 Comments

The year is almost over so it is natural to start looking ahead to 2026. Here are three questions relevant to the wine industry to keep in mind as you pull corks to celebrate the new year.

Question One: Are We There Yet?

It is no secret that 2025 has been a tough year for the wine business both here in the U.S. and around the world. There are bright spots, of course, but the thousands of acres of wine grapes that went unharvested this year are a clear sign of trouble as is the continuing removal of vines and conversion of vineyards to other uses.

Some wineries had enough wine in inventory to cover sales and made little or no wine in 2025. The conventional wisdom is that the industry is not going to begin recovery until that inventory of unsold wine is drawn down (or ages out and becomes unsaleable). Will we reach that point in 2026? Or will this be another bitter vintage for growers, especially those without firm contracts?

It is not something we talk about much in the U.S., but it would speed things along a bit if the government were to consider temporary crisis distillation programs or other policies to help reduce the overhang and bring the wine market into balance. Yes, you can go too far with programs like this and encourage “zombie” vineyards and wineries that exist only because of government support. No one wants that. But there is a useful short-term adjustment role for such programs, too, and it would help draw a line under the current situation and allow the industry to move forward.

Question Two: Will They or Won’t They?

The Supreme Court will soon rule on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff regime. Will they declare them a valid exercise of presidential power? Or will they rule that many of the tariffs violate constitutional provisions and must be rescinded?

This question has importance that goes well beyond the wine industry, but wine certainly has a dog in the fight. The full impact of the tariffs will start to be felt in 2026 through higher costs and disrupted supply chains, but some of the biggest impacts are already here, transmitted through the political system, not markets. I’m talking about the loss of our largest wine export market, Canada, in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian products. Tariffs are often a tit-for-tat situation and U.S. wine is suffering from the retaliation effect.

There are many follow-on questions here, of course. If the SCOTUS rules against the tariffs, will the ruling stick? Or will new tariffs appear to replace the old ones to keep the legal limbo going? Will the tariff tax revenues have to be repaid? If so, where will that money come from? The list goes on, but it starts with the Supreme Court’s decision. Stay tuned.

Question Three: What Next?

The U.S. economy is something of a puzzle as we bid 2025 adieu. Is growth booming, as the most recent GDP figures seem to suggest? Or is it slowing down and maybe struggling as jobs data indicate? Is inflation pretty much under control? If so, why is “affordability” the year’s hottest word (and not in a good way)?

There are many different ways to answer these questions and economics nerds like me add one more to the list: who will lead the Federal Reserve in 2026 and how will they react to economic news as the year unfolds? The public focus will be on interest rates. Up or down? But the bigger question is how we will navigate the traps and trade-offs of a complex, highly indebted, rapidly evolving economy.

I think this is a wine economics question because I believe that affordability is a significant explanation for the current malaise in wine sales. It’s not the only issue, but it matters. If you think of affordability as roughly the cost of living divided by disposable income, then what the Federal Reserve does is important because it can affect both the numerator and the denominator in many ways. There’s a lot at stake.

What’s next for the wine economy? And what unexpected events (unknown unknowns in the Donald Rumsfeld taxonomy) will appear? 2026 will be many things, but it won’t be boring!

Wine, Thanksgiving, and the Problem of Deadweight Loss

November 25, 2025 By Mike Veseth in Economic impact, wine, wine markets 1 Comment

Weight gain is the problem we most closely associate with Thanksgiving, but this Wine Economist column from 2021 argues that wine lovers need to consider the economic concept of deadweight loss when choosing a wine to bring to the festive gathering.

An Economic Theory of Thanksgiving Wine

The Wine Economist / November 15, 2021

Thursday is Thanksgiving Day here in the United States and many of us will gather with family and friends for the holiday feast. If you have been invited to share Thanksgiving with others (and if you are interested enough in wine to be reading this column), then you must confront a perennial problem: what wine should you bring?

Deadweight Loss?

Why is the choice of a gift wine an economic problem? Well, it isn’t much of a problem if you plan to drink it all yourself. Then you should just buy what you like — but don’t expect to be invited back next year!

Since the point will be to share the wine with other guests, the choice is more difficult because just as you can’t be sure exactly what dishes will be served, you cannot be certain what wines the other guests will like the best.

There is a pretty good chance that you will experience what economists call a “deadweight loss” which is more or less where the benefit that the guests derive from your wine is less than what they’d have gained from a simple cash transfer. The story (which is possibly true) is told about the time Malcolm Forbes threw himself an extravagant birthday party where the guests were served some of the rarest, most expensive wines on the planet. Forbes went from guest to guest pouring the evening’s show-stopper wine. Finally he came to Warren Buffet. Wine? said Forbes with a smile. No thanks, Buffet replied. I’ll take the cash!

Warren Buffet understood the concept of deadweight loss and wanted nothing to do with it!

The Problem of Other People’s Money

The problem is asymmetric information. You know your own preferences and budget situation pretty well and so you have a fairly good idea of what you are giving up when you buy an expensive bottle of wine as a gift. But you don’t know the preferences of the other guests very well or whether they would prefer your wine or a simple cash payment to be spent on something else. You can’t be sure that their gain is greater than your loss.

This leads (I hope you are following along) to the conclusion that you are most efficient when you spend your own money on yourself because you can fairly well calculate both the gain and the opportunity cost. You are less efficient (in terms of deadweight loss) when spend your money on others. You are even less efficient when you spend other people’s money on yourself. And you are hopelessly inefficient when you spend others people’s money on other people. What do you think?

So it would seem like the most efficient thing to do would be to decline that dinner invitation and stay home with the wine you buy for yourself. How sad! No wonder economics is called the “dismal science.”

It’s Not About the Wine

But here’s the notion that saves the day. Thanksgiving is not really about the wine (or the turkey or the green bean casserole), it is about the sharing. Thanksgiving is more a public or communal good than private good. And so, if you do it well, the particular elements of Thanksgiving including the wine will play a secondary role to the general warmth of the shared experience.

I used to get frustrated when wine wasn’t the centerpiece of gatherings, some of which were actually organized to celebrate the wine. But then I got over it. Wine is doing its job when it makes everything else better. Don’t you agree?

This fact changes a bit how you might approach your choice of a Thanksgiving wine to share. Cost is nearly irrelevant. Picking a wine that draws undue attention to you (and your fine taste or great wealth) almost defeats the purpose. A modest wine that makes everyone smile — maybe something with bubbles? — will serve very well. And then you can concentrate on what Thanksgiving is really about.

That said, no one will complain if you bring a nice Port, Madeira, or Sauternes to savor at the end of the meal.

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Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Enjoy the wine and the feast and most of all each other!