Dark Clouds and Silver Linings

January 20, 2026 By in Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, wine, wine history, wine markets Leave a comment

I have been busy getting ready for next week’s “State of the Industry” session at the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento. The theme of the Unified in 2026 is “Reframe the Narrative.”  There was a lot of bad news about the wine business in 2025. Where are we headed in 2026 and beyond? How can we get out of this rut?

This is my 15th consecutive year on this panel and I thought it would be interesting to look back at my first presentation, which was in 2012. It took some fiddling to find the files, but here are the slides I presented back then along with my unedited and very rough presentation notes.

If you take a few minutes to read through this material, you’ll notice that while the wine business environment was very different back in 2012 in terms of the headlines, many of the detailed concerns were similar to today. Margins were tight then, for example, and tight now, too, but for very different reasons.

Economics is called the dismal science, so I suppose that dark clouds and silver linings are always on the cards. The more things change the more they stay the same in that regard. I think my final point (Boulding’s Law) has held up pretty well, don’t you? Here’s my 2012 report.

The State of the Wine Industry 2012: A Global Perspective

I study globalization and wine so I am here today to start off this session with a global perspective on the state of the industry.

Wine has always been a global industry, or as global as trade barriers and transportation costs allowed.

It is not an accident that when David Ricardo wrote his economics textbook almost 300 years ago, the example he used to illustrate international trade was the wine trade.

It has always been important to have a global perspective on wine but now more than ever. The wine world has become a tight little world where international and global effects cannot be ignored.

Today’s session will have a good deal of good news — a lot more than in some recent years. As an economist, however, it is my job to channel Alan Greenspan back when he warned about the dangers of “irrational exuberance.”

Silver linings do not always come wrapped in dark clouds, but sometimes they do. And it is important to understand them and to think strategically about them.

A Dangerous Phase

One silver lining is growth. The US economy should continue to grow in 2012, although perhaps more slowly than in 2011. And the wine market should continue to recover.

But the dark cloud that surrounds this is the global economy, which has entered a “Dangerous Phase” according to the International Monetary Fund. The global economy will grow this year but more slowly than before and with the largest single economic area — the European Union — likely falling into recession.

GLOBAL GROWTH SQUEEZE

And so economic leaders will be desperately looking for growth … and where will they find it? Consumers do not seem able to carry the load, especially with the housing crisis still unresolved.

Business investment is also inadequate due to poor future expectations and tight credit market conditions.

Government is handcuffed by its own debt and politically gridlocked as well.

So this leaves exports and we can expect nations to push for every competitive advantage for their products to try to grab the growth they need.

EXCHANGE RATES

This explains why exchange rates will be especially volatile in 2012. The US has successfully run a secret “weak dollar” policy for the past few years and now other countries are following suit. Competitive depreciations or currency wars are likely as more countries try to use exchange rates to grasp the growth they desperately require.

WILD CARDS

There are many wild cards that could turn dark clouds into silver linings or vice versa. The most troubling wild cards are the US and the European Union. Will US growth stall? And how will the election affect economic policy?

The questions are even more serious for Europe. How deep will the recession be and will Germany be part of it? And, of course, will the Euro survive in its present form? Big questions.

A Tight Squeeze for Wine

This combination of silver linings and dark clouds will create a Tight Squeeze for the wine industry. Let me explain how these pieces fit together.

A TIGHT SQUEEZE FOR WINE

These global economic factors in combination with the particular dynamic of the wine industry produce the conditions for what I am calling a Tight Squeeze for wine.

INCREASING COMPETITION

Competition is increasing all along the supply chain. There is more competition for wine grapes and bulk wine and more competition as well for those markets and market segments high decent margins.

THE BIG SQUEEZE

Wine maker margins will feel A Big Squeeze.

You will hear a lot today about the competition for wine grapes and bulk wine. Short market conditions are pushing up prices in many key market segments.

Wine producers naturally want to pass along higher costs to consumers but this is problematic in many market segments. Slow economic growth combined with buyers who see discounted prices as the new normal means that some producers will be squeezed out of some markets because of shrinking or even negative margins.

The squeeze will put increased emphasis on lower cost alternative sources of grapes and bulk wines and on those brands and market segments where margins can be maintained or perhaps even increased.

CURRENCY SHIFTS

The exchange rate shifts I talked about a minute ago will impact the Big Squeeze in several ways, creating both silver linings in the form of lower import costs and also dark clouds due to greater import competition.

The dollar is likely to continue to increase in value, but exchange rates are the most difficult thing to predict in economics and it is impossible to tell for sure how individual currency values will be affected. There will be silver linings for some, I’m sure, and clouds for others.

WILD CARDS: CHINA

There are many wild cards in the Big Squeeze scenario, but the biggest is certainly China. Economic growth will slow this year in China, but how much? The worst case scenario would be for Europe’s recession to be deeper than expected and the US recovery to stall. In this case China’s growth could fall dramatically.

How would this affect wine? Well, the direct effects would be rather small I think – slower growth in an otherwise rapidly growing market.

But the indirect effects would be significant. If China’s industrial production slows so would its raw material purchases, which would hit the Chilean Peso, Australian dollar and perhaps the South African rand particularly hard.

What’s the Best Way to Prepare for the Future?

And finally I suggest for your consideration Boulding’s Law, named for Kenneth Boulding, the great economist. Boulding once conducted a study of the history of the future — he looked back in history to see what people thought would happen in the future and then he fast forwarded to find out if they were right.

His conclusion. When the future finally came around, people were generally surprised — even when it was exactly what they expected.

Hence Boulding’s Law: the best way to prepare for the future is to prepare to be surprised!

The Deion Sanders Theory of Wine Markets

January 13, 2026 By in Supply and Demand, wine, wine markets 10 Comments

Cyclical or structural? That was one of the most-asked questions in the wine business when everyone gathered for the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento last year.

Was the decline in sales due to a structural change? There were a lot of structural shift theories including generational change (bye-bye, boomers), heightened health awareness, affordability (a hot term right now), and more.

Other analysts, however, viewed the problem more in cyclical terms. The wine industry experiences periodic booms and busts. And consumers go through life-cycles, drinking less wine when young, more as they mature, and then less again when they start to “age out” of the market. Maybe we are just caught in the down-cycle and things will turn up if we give them time.

The Deion Sanders Theory: Both

A year later the answer looks clear to me. Structural or cyclical? The answer, which I am stealing from a 1995 Pizza Hut television commercial starring Deion Sanders and Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, is simple: Both. [Click on Deion’s image above to see the video.]

This looks to be the most serious global wine industry crisis in at least a generation, so maybe it is no surprise that it isn’t the result of a single force, but the “perfect storm” phenomenon. Certainly all of the structural shift concerns are at work and warrant attention and I’m not sure we have fully figured them out yet.

But this year attention has turned to the cycle problem in part because we can see it happening right in front of our eyes. But can we do anything about it? The problem is that the existence of large inventories has discouraged wineries from buying grapes and making wine. Vines are being grubbed up in California and around the world in response to the production decline.  Inventory cycles may even result in a shortage of wine grapes in a few years, which will be a strange sight after the recent surplus. A shortage? Read on.

Econ 101 and All That

The role of inventories in the phenomenon of business cycles was part of the syllabus when I first studied macroeconomics. The logic went like this:  Suppose there is an exogenous shock that reduced overall demand (see structural shift above). This leaves businesses holding unplanned excess inventories. They respond by reducing new orders (which deepens the decrease in demand) until stocks are depleted.

One characteristic of decentralized markets, and the factor that tends to make cycles repeat themselves, is the phenomenon of overshooting. When firms draw down inventories, they tend to wait too long to stop, creating a shortage. And when they build up inventories again they overshoot on the up side, too. This isn’t a strategy. It’s just what happens when you have to guess where the bottom and the top of the cycle are. And that’s a serious concern now, that today’s surplus could turn into a shortage in a few years.

Stocks and Flows

Right now we have large inventories in many parts of the wine market. Some wine producers have so much unsold inventory from previous vintages that they made very little (and sometimes none at all) in 2025. They won’t fully return to the grape markets until those surplus stocks either sell out or “age out.”

And, to be honest, some wine consumers have accumulated pretty big inventories, too, and don’t really need to buy a lot of wine in the short run. Wine production (which economists call a flow variable) won’t start to rise until inventories (a stock variable) have fallen for consumers, retailers, distributors, and producers. When that will happen is hard to predict, but it is the biggest question confronting the industry today.

The impact of high inventories and relatively low sales is a wine problem, but not just a wine problem. Jim Beam, the famous Bourbon producer, recently announced that it was pausing production for a year (a year!) to allow time for excess  inventories to decline to a sustainable level. And apparently there is a glut of Scotch whisky, too.

What Would Deion Do?

What will the market look like when stocks and flows are back in equilibrium? Not like it did before. That’s because of the structural shifts that have taken place. The U.S. wine market will be smaller and different, but it will still be there.

So what should we do? Focus on the structural elements as many did last year? Or try to guess how the cycle will play out and develop strategies accordingly? I don’t know what you are going to do, but I think I can guess how Deion would answer that question.

Both.

2026: The Year to Change the Narrative about Wine

January 6, 2026 By in wine, wine markets 3 Comments

Welcome to 2026. It promises to be a year filled with both celebration and anxiety. Anxiety is understandable given the many unpredictable political and economic forces at work both here in the United States and around the world.

2026 is a bit like this illustration from the Economist newspaper’s annual review, The World Ahead 2026. The ball’s in play and anything could happen: war, peace, boom, bust, success, failure. It’s (almost) enough to drive you to drink something stronger than wine.

A Year to Celebrate?

Anxiety is easy to understand. But what about the celebrations? Well, several important anniversaries will be celebrated in 2026, some with more enthusiasm than others. Economists like me, for example, will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s book An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith’s Invisible Hand has inspired many to embrace the power of markets and provoked others to oppose them, but its influence is difficult to deny.

2026 is also the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in Philadelphia, an act that gave birth to both the United States of America and to a set of ideas with global implications.

1776 was quite a year. Wealth of Nations and the Declaration of Independence fundamentally reframed how we saw the world.  We are still feeling the aftershocks of those events today.

Reframing the Narrative of American Wine

2026 is the 50th anniversary of an event that sent shocks through the world of wine: the 1976 Judgment of Paris, which has been documented in George M. Taber’s famous 2005 book and popularized in a fictionalized 2008 film called Bottle Shock.

Taber, a Paris-based reporter for Time magazine, got wind of an unusual event. A panel of French wine experts was going to compare flights of California red and white wines with roughly similar French wines. The judging would be blind and the result was sure to be a triumph for the French. But if even one California wine did pretty well, there might be a story in it. So California-born Taber got the editorial OK to check it out.

The result, as you probably know, was indeed newsworthy (Taber got the scoop because he was the only journalist there). The top red wine and the top white wine were both from California. What a scandal!

If you analyze the data of the judging closely, as economists like me are prone to do (see “Wine by the Numbers”), the victory of Team California over Team France is not completely clear. But this much is very clear. The Judgment of Paris changed the narrative about California versus France and New World versus Old World.

Fresh Thinking Spreads

The biggest change was in how Americans thought about their own wines. How could the French be wrong about wine? Maybe the critics who had been promoting California wines (with limited success) were right? Interest in California wine, already on the rise, was magnified and accelerated.

The French were also impressed. Maybe not the average French wine drinker, but certainly some people at the top of the industry. Investment by French winemakers in California vineyards and winemaking facilities, already on the rise (Domaine Chandon was founded in 1974), was magnified and accelerated.

As Taber explains in Judgment of Paris, new thinking spread to wine regions all around the world. If California wines are actually very good, maybe we can learn something from them to make our wines world-class, too. The rise of quality winemaking, already under way in many regions, was also magnified and accelerated.

Time to Reframe the Question Today?

It is never easy to change the way people think about the world, but the situation today is more difficult in some ways than ever before. When Taber wrote his Judgment of Paris story (and when Morley Safer made his TV report on the French Paradox) mass communications were much simpler. There were a few magazines that millions of people read every week (Time and Newsweek) and a few TV programs that pulled in viewers every week (60 Minutes).  Do you think a magazine article or television program would have the same effect today?

The news cycle was slower in the past, too. An idea might be talked about and turned over in discussion for days or weeks (or more). Ideas today are chewed up and spit out pretty fast. I’m not saying that it is impossible to make a lasting impact, but it is an upstream swim all the way.

It may be hard to change the narrative about wine, but that’s not a reason to give up on the idea. “Reframing the Narrative” is the theme of the 2026 Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, North America’s largest wine industry meeting. I hope everyone who comes to Sacramento at the end of the month is ready to pitch in.

Three Wine Economics Questions for 2026

December 30, 2025 By in Economic impact, wine, wine markets 3 Comments

The year is almost over so it is natural to start looking ahead to 2026. Here are three questions relevant to the wine industry to keep in mind as you pull corks to celebrate the new year.

Question One: Are We There Yet?

It is no secret that 2025 has been a tough year for the wine business both here in the U.S. and around the world. There are bright spots, of course, but the thousands of acres of wine grapes that went unharvested this year are a clear sign of trouble as is the continuing removal of vines and conversion of vineyards to other uses.

Some wineries had enough wine in inventory to cover sales and made little or no wine in 2025. The conventional wisdom is that the industry is not going to begin recovery until that inventory of unsold wine is drawn down (or ages out and becomes unsaleable).  Will we reach that point in 2026? Or will this be another bitter vintage for growers, especially those without firm contracts?

It is not something we talk about much in the U.S., but it would speed things along a bit if the government were to consider temporary crisis distillation programs or other policies to help reduce the overhang and bring the wine market into balance. Yes, you can go too far with programs like this and encourage “zombie” vineyards and wineries that exist only because of government support. No one wants that. But there is a useful short-term adjustment role for such programs, too, and it would help draw a line under the current situation and allow the industry to move forward.

Question Two: Will They or Won’t They?

The Supreme Court will soon rule on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff regime. Will they declare them a valid exercise of presidential power? Or will they rule that many of the tariffs violate constitutional provisions and must be rescinded?

This question has importance that goes well beyond the wine industry, but wine certainly has a dog in the fight. The full impact of the tariffs will start to be felt in 2026 through higher costs and disrupted supply chains, but some of the biggest impacts are already here, transmitted through the political system, not markets. I’m talking about the loss of our largest wine export market, Canada, in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian products. Tariffs are often a tit-for-tat situation and U.S. wine is suffering from the retaliation effect.

There are many follow-on questions here, of course. If the SCOTUS rules against the tariffs, will the ruling stick? Or will new tariffs appear to replace the old ones to keep the legal limbo going? Will the tariff tax revenues have to be repaid? If so, where will that money come from? The list goes on, but it starts with the Supreme Court’s decision.  Stay tuned.

Question Three: What Next?

The U.S. economy is something of a puzzle as we bid 2025 adieu. Is growth booming, as the most recent GDP figures seem to suggest? Or is it slowing down and maybe struggling as jobs data indicate? Is inflation pretty much under control? If so, why is “affordability” the year’s hottest word (and not in a good way)?

There are many different ways to answer these questions and economics nerds like me add one more to the list: who will lead the Federal Reserve in 2026 and how will they react to economic news as the year unfolds? The public focus will be on interest rates. Up or down? But the bigger question is how we will navigate the traps and trade-offs of a complex, highly indebted, rapidly evolving economy.

I think this is a wine economics question because I believe that affordability is a significant explanation for the current malaise in wine sales. It’s not the only issue, but it matters. If you think of affordability as roughly the cost of living divided by disposable income, then what the Federal Reserve does is important because it can affect both the numerator and the denominator in many ways. There’s a lot at stake.

What’s next for the wine economy? And what unexpected events (unknown unknowns in the Donald Rumsfeld taxonomy) will appear? 2026 will be many things, but it won’t be boring!

Wine and the Ghosts of Christmas Past

December 23, 2025 By in Oregon wine, wine, Wine Competitions, wine history Leave a comment

I was trying to think what Sue and I could give to Wine Economist readers for Christmas. We decided to re-tell this story about a completely different Christmas gift from many years ago. I’m not sure why, but I think it makes sense.  We hope you enjoy it.

Grape Transformations: Oregon Origins

The Wine Economist / November 8, 2011

I had a hidden agenda when I visited McMinnville, Oregon a few weeks ago. Ostensibly I was there to talk about my new book at Linfield College and to the local Rotary Club. Those events were great but I would not have been happy if I hadn’t done one more thing: return a minor piece of Oregon’s  wine history to its rightful home.

“To Nick, Cheers for all the years — past & future. David Lett, Christmas 1989.”

That is the inscription I found in a second-hand bookstore copy of Vintage Timelines, a neglected classic book that Jancis Robinson wrote over twenty years ago. The idea of the book was to select a group of the world’s greatest wines and examine how different vintages have evolved (and would be expected to continue to evolve) over time.  The research required Jancis to taste trough verticals of each great wine (research is such a drag!) and compare notes from previous years to create complex and quite fascinating graphical timelines.

Darn few American wines were good enough (in terms of their ageing potential) to make the cut and only one wine outside of California — the Eyrie Pinot Noir Reserve made by David Lett. Lett planted the first Pinot Noir vines in the Willamette Valley and he, along with the group they call “the Pioneers,” set Oregon wine on its present course.

Nick’s Back Room

The Nick in the inscription is almost certainly Nick Peirano of Nick’s Italian Cafe. Lett’s audacious egg was incubated and eventually hatched by the Pioneers and others over countless discussions in Nick’s back room. I’ve loved owning the book, but felt it didn’t belong to me. I needed to take it home and give it back. But to whom?

My first thought was my friend Scott Chambers, a professor at Linfield College and a friend of both Nick and the Lett family. He’d love to have the book, I thought, but it didn’t really belong to him any more than me. Maybe Jason Lett, David’s winemaking son who is carrying on the Eyrie tradition and building upon it? Yes, that would make sense.

But then I learned about the Oregon Wine History Project at Linfield College and that sealed the deal. They were pleased to add our copy of Vintage Timelines to their archive as a document chronicling the Eyrie Reserve’s early international recognition as well as the role of Nick’s back room in the region’s early development. Jeff Peterson, Director of the Linfield Center for the Northwest, accepted the book and both Scott and Jason supported the decision.

A Remarkable Story: David Lett (and the Pioneers)

David Lett is one of my heros and I am including him in my “Grape Transformations” list of people who have changed the way people think about wine or wine regions. He was certainly instrumental in the transformation of Oregon from a place known for fruit and nuts rather than grapes to a region frequently mentioned in the same breath with Burgundy.

Lett’s story is remarkable. Trained at UC/Davis, he came north looking for terroir where he could make Pinot in the Burgundian style. The first Pinot vines were planted in 1965; 1970 was the first Eyrie Pinot vintage.  After one or two false starts he hit paydirt. Great wine.

But from Oregon? Rainy old Oregon probably seemed like the last place on earth to make world class wine in the 1970s.

Olympic Gold

Then came the Wine Olympics of 1979. This was a competition, sponsored by  the French food and wine magazine Gault Millau, that featured 330 wines from 33 countries tasted blind by 62 judges. The 1975 Eyrie Pinot Noir Reserve attracted attention by placing 10th among Pinots. A stunning achievement for a wine from a previously unknown wine region.

Robert Drouhin of Maison Joseph Drouhin, a Burgundy negociant and producer, was fascinated and sponsored a further competition where the Eyrie wine came close second behind Drouhin’s own 1959 Chambolle-Musigny. Thus was Eyrie’s reputation set (and Oregon’s, too). It wasn’t long before Domaine Drouhin Oregon (DDO) was built in the same Dundee Hills as Eyrie’s vineyards — a strong endorsement of the terroir and recognition of the achievement.

The Pioneers founded the Oregon wine industry, but now the torch has been passed to a group that you might call the Sons [and Daughters] of the Pioneers. Some of them appear in the video at the top of this post (don’t be discouraged by the poor audio at the start — it gets better quickly). I’ll have something to say about this group in an upcoming post.

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Special thanks to Scott Chambers and Jason Lett for their hospitality during our stay in McMinnville.

Book Reviews: Sacred Wine, Stikky Wine, Kinda Like Wine

December 16, 2025 By in book reviews, wine, wine education, wine history Leave a comment

A lot of the wine books we receive fall into a few familiar categories. Here are brief reviews of two “category buster” wine books (plus one about Sake) that give a new spin on tried, true formats.

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Emily Stimpson Chapman, Sacred Wine: The Holy History and Heritage of Catholic Vintners. Marian Press, 2025.

The history of wine and the history of the Catholic church are deeply intertwined. Sacred Wine wants you to understand and appreciate this history and learn a few lessons along the way.

The lure (if wine isn’t enough) is the collection of beautiful photographs that makes this a book that’s probably going to start off on the coffee table. But the stories, which are well told, are so interesting that it is likely to move to your nightstand or reading chair before too long.

Twelve wineries scattered over France, Italy, and Spain provide twelve opportunities to explore church and wine history. All of the wineries have been molded in some way by the Catholic faith, often starting as monasteries, but in other respects they are quite different. Some are famous (Burgundy’s Chateau de Vougeot). Some make wines that are nearly impossible to taste unless you visit the winery, but others (Abbazia di Novacella) are widely distributed. Some of the wineries are very old indeed while others are unexpecxtedly modern. All are beautiful, as these photos demonstrate. Each tells a different story about God, wine, and history.

The Marian Press is the imprint of the Marians of the Immaculate Conception and they intend with this book to inform about wine and the church and to encourage readers to perhaps visit these wineries and to sample their wines or ones like them.

It is kind of inspiring to think, as Sacred Wine encourages you to do, that the liquid in your glass means something more; that it connects you somehow to something altogether more important. Not your typical coffee table wine book.

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Andrea Reibel, Stikky Wine. Laurence Holt Books, 2025.

There are a lot of variations on the “introduction to wine” book genre, but Stikky Wine is a new twist. Or new to me, in any case.

The idea is not to teach novice wine drinkers everything they need to know about wine. It is to give them a few basic tools that they use to each themselves. It is part of a small series of “stikky” books on different topics that focus on information that “sticks” and not the stuff you read and forget.

The concept reminds me of Father Guido Sarducci’s famous Five Minute University, which promised to provide a complete college education in five minutes time. How? By only teaching the stuff that sticks; the things you still remember after five years.  As a recovering professor I have mixed emotions about the Five Minute University, but I find the idea of Stikky Wine very appealing.

Stikky Wine introduces the idea of wine tasting through wine’s aromas, initially focusing on fruit aromas that most readers will be familiar with. There are some aromas closely associated with white wines and other for red wines. These aroma ideas are then applied to three red wines (Pinot Noir, Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon) and three white wines (Riesling, Sauvignon Blanc, Chardonnay).  The simple framework permits a number of variations and applications so that the reader has some idea of how wines differ and why. Significantly, readers are encouraged to set their book down and do wine instead of just thinking wine.

The second section builds on this by adding sensory concepts like body, acidity, tannins, and other types of aromas (including those associated with wine faults). Six aroma families, three sensory elements. Pretty basic tools, but important ones. An epilogue ties things together followed by Next Steps with more detailed information and references designed to propel the reader forward.

The format is user-friendly. It is almsot a flip book, with lots of illustrations, minimal text, quizzers, reviews, and so forth. It reminds me a bit of the sort of flash cards you might use to study a foreign language except the focus is on doing, not just memorizing.

Stikky Books says its products are tested thoroughly and really do help readers get from zero to sixty in wine understanding in about an hour. I can’t vouch for that because I’m not a beginner making new discoveries, but it seems like a plausible claim.

The thing to do would be to give the book to someone starting out and see what happens. It might be an excellent $12 investment, don’t  you think?

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Eric C. Rath, Kampai: The History of Sake. Reaktion Books, 2025.

Sake isn’t wine. It isn’t rice wine either, although I have heard it explained that way. Sake is Sake.

Sake is one thing, but it is also many things and that’s what makes it kinda like wine (as this article’s heading suggests). Some people are drawn to the complexity and variety. Others are turned off (or even freaked out) by the myriad variations. Wine is the same in many ways. How do we invite the intimidated into the tent without scaring them away? It’s a problem.

Eric C. Rath’s new book opens the door with history, told is an approachable way. Readers get drawn into the story and pretty soon the complications start to make sense. It doesn’t hurt that the heavy coated stocks makes the beautifuyl illustrations pop of the page.

Rath is a professor of premodern Japanese history of the University of Kansas. I’ll bet he is an excellent teacher because his book is clear and interesting and taught me a lot I didn’t know about Sake and about Japan. Rath uses history very effectively to teach about Sake and, I suppose, Sake to teach about history. Sacred Wine (see above) uses wine to teach about history and faith. Glad to welcome both these books to the wine (and kinda like wine) bookshelf.

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Three Faces of a Neighborhood Wine Renaissance

December 9, 2025 By in Uncategorized 1 Comment

Last week’s Wine Economist reported on an unexpected development in our local wine scene. Against all odds, interest in wine seems to be growing in our part of Tacoma, Washington. A number of new businesses have opened recently raising wine’s profile in the neighborhood. What’s going on?

We surveyed the situation last week and promised you a deeper dive. Here it is.

Metropolitan Market

Our story begins in 1990 when the Metropolitan Market opened on Proctor Street on a site that had been home to a variety of supermarkets over the years. It always had a wine aisle, but as the Met upped its game (and as supermarkets evolved in the U.S.), the wine wall changed with it. Here’s what I wrote about it in Chapter 3 of Wine Wars II.

The Metropolitan Market on Proctor Street in Tacoma, Washington, is a typical upscale American supermarket. It has all the upscale basics: a delicatessen and a fishmonger, fresh seasonal local produce, a coffee bar and gelato stand. You can buy cat food, corn flakes, and laundry soap at competitive prices. There is sushi, too, along with various panini, and espresso drinks that pair nicely with a proprietary chocolate chip snack called The Cookie. Or, for $6.99, you can take home a quarter of a 1.9 kilogram loaf of Polâine whole grain sourdough bread, flown in fresh from Paris every Wednesday. Eat it plain – it is delicious – or top with European butter and a swish of raw monofloral Manuka honey from New Zealand. You can find them all on the Met’s generous shelves.

The Metropolitan Market is the kind of store that is increasingly common in American cities, patronized by people like me, who take their culinary cues from celebrity chefs on the Food Network. It is to foodies what Home Depot is to the DIY set: an adult toy store where imaginations can run wild.

You probably have a store like the Met in your town and, since you are reading this book, you probably go there frequently so that you can check out the wine wall. I’d like you to go there now (or if that’s not convenient, to imagine that you are there) because this chapter requires your participation. I don’t really want to tell you what the wine world looks like, although that’s easy enough to do. I want you to see for yourself—and to be surprised.

I’m sending you to the supermarket because that’s where the battle for the future of wine is being waged. It isn’t the only battlefield; the idea of wine is contested wherever and whenever wine is bought and sold. Restaurants and bars. Wine shops and auction floors. Tasting rooms and cellar doors. Shoot, I’ve even bought wine in the middle of the night, directly from the maker, from the back of a pickup truck on a dark city street. (Don’t ask.)

But the supermarket is the central stage of this story and that’s where we need to begin. And to understand what’s going on there we will need to inspect it closely, looking for the key to its secret code.

Upscale supermarkets like the Met are about many things: service, selection, and maybe even opulence (The Met’s Cookie is certainly opulent). Significantly, they are also about identity, and wine fills an important niche, reinforcing and differentiating their identities and linking them to the lifestyles, both actual and aspirational, of their customers.

Maybe the most important thing about the Met over the years has been the people who make it happen. Patrick (aka  “the wine guy”) was, until his semi-retirement, a key element of the local wine culture. He was particularly important to us at The Wine Economist because of his knowledge of the wine business and trends. The Met helped raise the profile of wine in the neighborhood and establish it as part of the local culture.

Browne Family Vineyards Tasting Room

Precept Wine was rated as the 12th largest U.S. wine company by Wine Business Monthly earlier this year with an estimated 2.75 million cases sold per year. The company produces wine under many brands, but the current focus is on Browne Family Vineyards, Gruet, and House Wine according to the WBM report.

CEO Andrew Browne reports that his team was drawn to Tacoma and the Proctor District when they were planning tasting room locations. The Proctor Safeway and the Metropolitan Market had very strong wine programs and the neighborhood was both growing and developing a distinctive vibe. “We always viewed being near great retailers and bringing the ‘storytelling / nice setting / friendly people’ quality approach would lift all boats—a rising tide,” Browne says. “That is exactly the result we have seen in Tacoma.”

“When we opened in 2020, ‘jumpstarting’ the wine scene wasn’t on our radar,” comments Precept chief marketing officer Alexandra Evans. “Our goal was simpler: create a NYC-quality experience right in our backyard. Andrew had just moved to Tacoma—a place dear to many of our hearts—and we wanted to build a gathering spot where people could enjoy great local wine and feel at home. A place that genuinely brought value to our home community. Seeing the momentum build with more tasting rooms, wine bars, and shops has been thrilling.”

Like the Met Market, Browne Family Vineyards is all about investing in people, both the tasting room staff and the neighborhood. As Browne notes, “We believed in Tacoma’s potential—the food culture, the highly engaged community thirsty for quality experience, it was a safe bet. What our tasting room proved is that you don’t need to be in wine country to build wine culture. You just need to show up authentically and honor people’s choice to spend their hard-earned time and money with you. We feel deeply responsible for delivering on that promise!”

Sue and I like to meet friends and colleagues at Browne Family Vineyards. There is a feeling that is both comfortable and sophisticated. The wine flights are great conversation starters. And I like the fact that in Tacoma, the “City of Destiny,” you can order wine from a collection that proclaims “Do Epic Sh*t!” An inspiration. And an important step in the evolution of the neighborhood wine scene.

Corbeau Restaurant

Corbeau opened in the Proctor District a little more than a year ago and caught our attention by positioning itself  as a “Franco-Tacoman” restaurant, which translates to French cuisine and sensibility with local Tacoma-area ingredients. We intended to give it a try, but somehow something always came up. That changed recently when we looked at their wine program.

Corbeau is the creation of Tacoma native Trevor Hamilton, whose restaurant wine resume includes spells at Canlis in Seattle and The Table in Tacoma, and executive chef Craig Tronset, whose experiences include Bastille in Seattle and The Table in Tacoma.

Corbeau took over a spot that was the long-time home of an Italian-American restaurant and I suppose it has taken a while for people like us to find out what’s going on. What we’ve discovered in recent visits is a warm environment with friendly staff, excellent service, and food that is both distinctive and delicious. You can sense the personal touch at every turn.

On the beverage side, Corbeau is about wine but not just wine. The cocktail and mocktail menus are interesting and many of the tables we’ve seen have brightly colored drinks on display. But, of course, it was the wine that drew us in. The wine list is long but not encyclopedic, about 70 percent French, and includes a special list of bottles priced at less than $60. So it is serious about wine.

But Corbeau is also playful about wine and inviting. This becomes clear when you consider the by-the-glass page of the wine list. There are more than a dozen choices and they are presented in an unusual way (see above). The coded wine references are arrayed along two axes: delicate to powerful and natty to nice.

Natty? Well, low intervention (natural wine depending upon how you define that). The idea is a play on the Santa Claus “naughty and nice” idea. What this does, according to wine director Mason Pack, is start a conversation about what you are interested in trying and the many different faces that wine can present. It’s a different way to think about wine. What fun.

Our first visit (with friends Zari and Greg) focused on Natty and Nice wines paired with happy hour burgers, fries, and salad. But we soon returned, drawn by the arrival of a bottle of Pignolo, a red wine from Friuli that is so rare that it is almost invisible. 

Anatomy of a Renaissance

So how does a wine renaissance happen in  a world where news reports constantly reinforce the wine industry’s struggles? I can’t answer that question in general terms but I have a couple of ideas based on wine businesses covered last week and above in these Wine Economist columns.

The first observation is simple. It’s not about the wine. It’s about the people. Growing a wine culture or any culture has to start with people and their dreams and visions.

The second thing is that a renaissance doesn’t happen all at once. Change happens gradually and then suddenly as momentum builds. You can’t always be sure that a first step will be followed by others, but it is terrific when it works.

The thing that these businesses (and the others we wrote about last week) have in common is that they are different. Different from other businesses in some ways and different from each other. Wine isn’t a single thing. It is many things. This means that there are many ways for wine to connect to the community.

Our little neighborhood has developed a vibrant wine scene. Can it sustain its identity and maybe even continue to grow in the current unfavorable environment? Fingers crossed that wine’s light will grow brighter in the coming year.

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Thanks to everyone we talked to about the Proctor wine scene. We couldn’t really do justice to what’s happening in a short column like this, but we tried.

Against the Tide: A Town Where Wine is Cool

December 2, 2025 By in wine 3 Comments

Most of the news we read about the wine market is depressing. Consumers are drinking less wine, buying less wine, and seemingly less interested in alcoholic beverages in general. The world has hit “peak wine,” according to The Economist newspaper. It’s all downhill from here. Many different causes are cited, but the bottom line is almost always the same. The rising tide that lifted wine to higher levels in the past has reversed course.

We see evidence of this trend everywhere. Everywhere, that is, except in our backyard, where wine seems to be cool and getting cooler. A puzzle! Here is our report about the unexpected rise of wine in our little neighborhood. Are there broader lessons here? Read on and make up your own mind.

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Tacoma, Washington, a wine destination? Huh? We wouldn’t have thought so, and yet …  A new wine bar, Valo, opened in our neighborhood, a block from an existing and popular wine bar, Browne Family Vineyards. Two tasting rooms/wine bars? In our little neighborhood?

We started looking around and were surprised. From Wine Economist World Headquarters, we can walk 15 minutes to those two winery tasting rooms, at least two restaurants that feature wine, and two wine-friendly supermarkets. A little further afield, within three miles of World HQ, we have several wine shops, more tasting rooms, and restaurants, and a farm store that features 3000 different wines on its shelves.

What’s going on here? Is wine cool again?

Context: The Neighborhood

Sue and I live in a neighborhood called the Proctor District (Tacoma is as much a collection of neighborhoods as it is an identifiable city). Our little shopping district was born years ago when two streetcar lines intersected at the corner of North Proctor and North 26th Streets.

The economic nexus thus created grew to include two supermarkets, two public schools, a church, a library, bowling alley, a firehouse, a post office, an historical movie theater, Saturday farmers’ market, and a collection of small shops, salons, offices, restaurants, and bakeries lining the city streets in the old way that predates strip malls. I am not sure how many places there are to buy coffee drinks in the Proctor District, but you are never far away from a caffeine fix.

The campus of the University of Puget Sound is less than a mile away and the University Washington Tacoma is not too far by bus or Uber. The population of the area has grown in the past decade through construction of several apartment buildings and a zoning policy that looks favorably on auxiliary dwelling units. Housing costs are not low in absolute terms, but look affordable compared with the Seattle area.

The domain of this report also includes a neighborhood called Old Town, which is about a mile away. It is a much smaller collection of businesses located, as the name suggests, in the historic home of Tacoma where Commencement Bay with its docks and mills met up with the railroad line.

Supermarket Wine

The first hint that wine is cool around here can be found in the two supermarkets that sit on opposite sides of Proctor Street at the entrance to the district. One is a Safeway store that fits the profile of a typical good supermarket of its type, except that is is perhaps a bit smaller than many stores today because it is constrained by the limited footprint of the original store lot.

Directly across the street is the Metropolitan Market, which featured in Chapter 3 of my Wine Wars books. It is is part of a small regional chain of upscale supermarkets of the Whole Foods/Wegmans genre but more compact than newer stores, again because the smaller scale of the original store’s footprint.

The stores are very different in terms of their scope and focus, but they both have strong wine departments and we see lots of wine going through the checkout stands. The two wine walls seemed to have evolved to complement as much as compete. The Met has a better selection of wines from smaller producers in Washington and Oregon, for example, and its range of European wines is very good, too.

Safeway features wine from larger producers from California and Washington, but with many unexpected gems scattered on the shelves, a tribute to the talented Albertson/Safeway wine team. When I sent students to Safeway to study the economic geography of the wine wall a few years ago, they found prices that ranged from about $2 per bottle equivalent to over $200 per bottle, so something for everyone.

Winery Tasting Rooms

But that’s just the beginning. The fact that our neighborhood has supermarkets that feature good wine programs is important, but not necessarily exceptional. More noteworthy is the rise of tasting rooms, wine bars, and wine shops. They provide evidence of a changing, rising wine scene.

The Browne Family Vineyards tasting room opened in late 2020 and immediately drew good crowds for flights, glasses, and bottles of Andrew Browne’s wines along with snacks and other beverages from the Browne portfolio. It is the third Browne tasting room to open after Walla Walla and Seattle. Andrew Browne (CEO of Precept Wine) was drawn to the Proctor District’s dynamic vibe. The tasting room is a very comfortable place to meet friends and enjoy wine. It has been busy enough during our recent visits that we reserved tables. Think of the Browne tasting room as “proof of concept” that wine still draws a crowd.

Now there is another winery tasting room in the Proctor District. And a brewery tap room, too. The Valo Wine tasting room opened a block from Browne last month joining Narrows Brewing taproom just a few doors down the street. Gradually, then suddenly, the opportunities to enjoy wine, beer, and other adult beverages have blossomed in the neighborhood. Is this normal?

Shops, Bars, and Restaurants

The Pacific Northwest Shop isn’t really a wine store; it features local arts, crafts, and foods. But it has long been know as a place to go to find a selection local wines, too, especially those from smaller producers.

Tacoma Wine Merchants opened its new store in Old Town in 2022, moving from a much smaller location in the Stadium neighborhood (named for Stadium High School, which you might remember from “10 Things I Hate About You”). It is an attractive wine shop with interesting wines and warm atmosphere. It hosts frequent tastings that draw a good crowd.

The Old Town wine scene gained momentum in 2024 when the Bordeaux Wine Bar opened just a block away from Tacoma Wine Merchants. It is an outpost of the Bordeaux Wine Bar in Enumclaw, Washington. It is a good place to hang out, enjoy wine and food, and take advantage of regular tastings.

There have always been restaurants with interesting wine lists in the Proctor neighborhood (and even more in the 6th Avenue district a short drive away). But things are getting even better. A restaurant called Corbeau opened in the Proctor District a little over a year ago and got attention with a long list of mainly French wines. Corbeau has billed itself as “Franco-Tacoman cuisine,” which can be translated as French cuisine and sensibility combined with Tacoma-area regional ingredients. If you are interested in wine, as we will explain next week, Corbeau takes the local scene to an unexpected new level.

Something’s Happening Here

So what’s the “so what?” here. The wine market has been in decline for most of the last five years. Wine’s tide has been going out. But our little neighborhood has seen a significant bump in wine activity. It is worth noting, celebrating, and maybe analyzing a bit.

How do these new wine establishments work and what do they have in common? Come back next week for business profiles and some thoughts, focusing on Metropolitan Market, the store that some say started the Proctor District renaissance; the Browne Family Vineyards tasting room; and Corbeau, the Franco-Tacoman restaurant.

Wine, Thanksgiving, and the Problem of Deadweight Loss

November 25, 2025 By in Economic impact, wine, wine markets 1 Comment

Weight gain is the problem we most closely associate with Thanksgiving, but this Wine Economist column from 2021 argues that wine lovers need to consider the economic concept of deadweight loss when choosing a wine to bring to the festive gathering.

An Economic Theory of Thanksgiving Wine

The Wine Economist / November 15, 2021

Thursday is Thanksgiving Day here in the United States and many of us will gather with family and friends for the holiday feast. If you have been invited to share Thanksgiving with others (and if you are interested enough in wine to be reading this column), then you must confront a perennial problem: what wine should  you bring?

Deadweight Loss?

Why is the choice of a gift wine an economic problem? Well, it isn’t much of a problem if you plan to drink it all yourself. Then you should just buy what you like — but don’t expect to be invited back next year!

Since the point will be to share the wine with other guests, the choice is more difficult because just as you can’t be sure exactly what dishes will be served, you cannot be certain what wines the other guests will like the best.

There is a pretty good chance that you will experience what economists call a “deadweight loss” which is more or less where the benefit that the guests derive from your wine is less than what they’d have gained from a simple cash transfer.   The story (which is possibly true) is told about the time Malcolm Forbes threw himself an extravagant birthday party where the guests were served some of the rarest, most expensive wines on the planet. Forbes went from guest to guest pouring the evening’s show-stopper wine. Finally he came to Warren Buffet. Wine? said Forbes with a smile. No thanks, Buffet replied. I’ll take the cash!

Warren Buffet understood the concept of deadweight loss and wanted nothing to do with it!

The Problem of Other People’s Money

The problem is asymmetric information. You know your own preferences and budget situation pretty well and so you have a fairly good idea of what you are giving up when you buy an expensive bottle of wine as a gift. But you don’t know the preferences of the other guests very well or whether they would prefer your wine or a simple cash payment to be spent on something else. You can’t be sure that their gain is greater than  your loss.

This leads (I hope you are following along) to the conclusion that you are most efficient when you spend your own money on yourself because you can fairly well calculate both the gain and the opportunity cost. You are less efficient (in terms of deadweight loss) when spend your money on others. You are even less efficient when you spend other people’s money on yourself. And you are hopelessly inefficient when you spend others people’s money on other people. What do you think?

So it would seem like the most efficient thing to do would be to decline that dinner invitation and stay home with the wine you buy for yourself. How sad! No wonder economics is called the “dismal science.”

It’s Not About the Wine

But here’s the notion that saves the day. Thanksgiving is not really about the wine (or the turkey or the green bean casserole), it is about the sharing. Thanksgiving is more a public or communal good than private good. And so, if you do it well, the particular elements of Thanksgiving including the wine will play a secondary role to the general warmth of the shared experience.

I used to get frustrated when wine wasn’t the centerpiece of gatherings, some of which were actually organized to celebrate the wine. But then I got over it. Wine is doing its job when it makes everything else better. Don’t you agree?

This fact changes a bit how you might approach your choice of a Thanksgiving wine to share. Cost is nearly irrelevant. Picking a wine that draws undue attention to you (and  your fine taste or great wealth) almost defeats the purpose.  A modest wine that makes everyone smile — maybe something with bubbles? — will serve very well. And then you can concentrate on what Thanksgiving is really about.

That said, no one will complain if you bring a nice Port, Madeira, or Sauternes to savor at the end of the meal.

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Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Enjoy the wine and the feast and most of all each other!

A Tale of Two Wine Guides

November 18, 2025 By in book reviews, wine, wine education 6 Comments

Margaret Rand, general editor. Hugh Johnson’s Pocket Wine Book 2026. Mitchel Beazley, 2025.

Rose Murray Brown MW. A Taste for Wine: a new tasting masterclass for wine lovers. Mitchel Beazley, 2025.

Two new wine guides arrived at the Wine Economist mailbox recently, both published by Mitchel Beazley. They both take a very broad view of the world of wine and address some of the same topics and questions, but do so in very different ways. “There are no one-liners in wine,” as Jon Fredrikson says, so there’s probably not a single clear path to guiding readers through the world of wine.

Herewith a brief comparison of the two new books to help you think about the different ways that guides can approach wine and, perhaps, to help you consider what you might want from a book like this.

Compare and Contrast

  • The first difference is obvious: the Hugh Johnson guide is small (about the size of two or three smartphones stacked on top of each other) and densely packed with information with very small but clearly readable text. A Taste for Wine’s format is about twice as large, the pages have a relaxed feel with lots of colorful illustrations. Hugh Johnson’s vibe is “dive deep,” while Taste for Wine feels more “take a look around.”
  • Taste for Wine is brand new this year. After initially wondering if the world really needed another wine book, she decided to write this one to put her own personal stamp on wine education. The Hugh Johnson guide, on the other hand, has been updated almost every year since it first appeared in 1977. It is now a team effort with Margaret Rand leading more than 30 area-specialist wine writer contributors.

  • Both books provide information about wine grape varieties and wine-food pairing suggestions. Both present surveys of global wine regions, too, but there is a big difference in depth of analysis. Taste of Wine provides two-page introductions to each region with illustrations, basic facts, and a brief list of suggested wines plus, in a separate section, a list of the author’s picks of the best wineries to visit. The list just gives names, not detailed explanations, but that might be enough to get the reader digging deeper on the internet.
  • The core of the Hugh Johnson book is in the chapters on the main wine-producing countries. France and the United States are divided into the main regions and states respectively. Other countries such as Italy have one long alphabetical list of thumbnail descriptions of wineries, regions, and grape varieties. Smaller countries and U.S. states have short descriptions. This organization allows the book to pack in lots of information, but I have never warmed up to the alphabetical approach since I tend to think of wine in regional terms, so I’d put all the wineries from Alto Adige together, for example.  I imagine that this organization evolved as the number of wineries and regions grew and grew over the years. I might be happier with fewer wineries in each list with more detail on each, but the depth vs. breadth trade-off is impossible to solve to everyone’s satisfaction.
  • A Taste for Wine’s largest sections are, naturally, devoted to wine tasting itself. Rose Murray Brown hopes that the book will make wine less complex and more approachable. Simplify without dumbing down. She illustrates many of her points through 10 wine tasting flights that readers are encouraged to replicate. Each element of wine tasting is indeed explained in easy-to-understand terms. It is not Brown’s fault that there are many elements to consider, so the complexity problem is difficult to overcome. I suspect her readers, seeing the “masterclass” reference in the subtitle, will be up for the challenge.
  • One thing I like about A Taste for Wine is the way it reminds me of Kevin Zraly’s classic Windows on the World wine course book, now in its 35th edition and still #1 in Amazon’s wine guide ratings. Both books are focused on providing readers with the practical knowledge they need to enjoy wine. I think that practical aspect explains why there is depth in the tasting sections, which apply every time you open a bottle of wine, versus the other sections that apply in specific situations. Give readers what they need to know to make a good beginning and then guide them to take the next steps.
  • The basic structure of the Hugh Johnson guides does not change much from year to year, so I always look forward to the two sections that vary considerably from year to year. The early section on “12 Wines to Try in 2026” gives readers a chance to think about what’s new and interesting in the wine world. Always interesting. And there is a themed section at the back that changes every year. For 2026 the topic is the price of wine, how it is set, what it means, is wine good value? Interesting reading.
  • So which book should you add to your bookshelf? I suppose the obvious answer (and the one that Mitchell Beazley probably hopes you will give) is both books since their strengths are so complementary. Personally, the opportunity to read both books makes me think about what a wine guide needs to be in 2026, especially given the many changes in the wine world today and the availability of so much information via the internet and apps. Thinking about your perfect wine guide is a useful project, but a dangerous one. Rose Murray Brown says it is what provoked her to write A Taste for Wine!